The 10k Betting Experiment (Stage 2) - FINISHED

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Ron

Ron

Well-Known Member
Forum Moderator
Jan 25, 2011
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An experiment is not worth much unless it proves something. So after the success of Stage 1, I'm putting my neck on the block with Stage 2. Again I start off with a £10k Betting Bank and an empty Piggy bank. All losses reduce the Betting Bank and all profits go into the Piggy Bank.

Stage 1. £10,203* Profit (* assumes Sea Moon does not win the Arc)

Stage 2. £11,200 Profit



Stage 1 bets can be viewed here
 
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First bet £1600 win Astra Hall 15/8
 
Off to a flying start. 3rd 5/4 £1600 lost

Balances

Betting Bank: £8.400
Piggy Bank: Empty
 
Whatever would have happened with today's selection, I believe this time of year is very difficult for the punter and I wasn't going to commence Stage 2 until either the form for NH had settled down, or even wait for the flat next season. The bet today looked a good value bet at 15/8 (an improving filly who had also shown an appreciation for a step up in trip, on a 3 timer, and seemingly not much to beat). She was backed down to 5/4 so clearly I was not alone. She had never raced on good going but I took the view that the trainer must have been happy with good ground (had the ground description had firm in it I would not have touched the race). I will continue but I suspect the experiment may just confirm that this is the wrong time of year to be backing horses.
 
3 of interest tomorrow:
Nottingham 18.20 Mister Marc (has the form to win but up against 2 unexposed, unbeaten colts and an unexposed, unbeaten filly
Nottingham 18.50 Lady Moonlight (unbeaten and W Buick booked)
Nottingham 19.50 Dinkum Diamond (Excellent form on sound surface)

but, with confidence knocked today, and slight question marks over all 3, I will just look on tomorrow.

No bets Tuesday
 
Would it be best to concentrate on horses not going to Cheltenham as they may be saving themselves for the big one or trying to get a decent handicap? Are there any Cheltenham races where the horse has to qualify by winning beforehand?
 
Ron said:
Would it be best to concentrate on horses not going to Cheltenham as they may be saving themselves for the big one or trying to get a decent handicap? Are there any Cheltenham races where the horse has to qualify by winning beforehand?
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Most Cheltenham horses will have a run somewhere between 40-60 days prior to the festival, but will want to avoid serious competition - a nice prep race and a confidence boosting win. Nicholls & Henderson usually getting their best Cheltenham hopes prepped during this time. The handicappers need watching though - some will be "protecting their mark" (so watch for chasers having a run over hurdles), whereas others will be trying like billy-o to win in order to get into one of the big festival handicaps.

I also find that the NH form has settled down well around Christmas time - Kempton on Boxing Day has been one of my most successful betting days over the years (I had 5 out of 6 last year) and I honestly believe the form is truer in those 3 months or so. No dramatic changes in the ground, most horses really trying, the stuffyness out.
 
Ron said:
but, with confidence knocked today, and slight question marks over all 3, I will just look on tomorrow.

No bets Tuesday
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This is the problem everyone faces how do you react to a loser especially one you were very sure about...the psychological impact in gambling is the biggest enemy...you didnt do anything wrong today so why would your confidence be knocked...
 
I didn't express myself very well Ardent. It's not so much my confidence as my confidence in the reliability of the form.
 
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Wouldn't normally touch odds on shots but with all the boxes ticked maybe 8/11 is reasonable value

£2,200 win Emirates Queen 8/11
 
Oh FFS. Just noticed the going has changed to soft. Last night it said good to firm. How can it change that much overnight? I guess I should wait until just before the off in future. At this rate the bank will be gone in no time. I bet Oojooba gets placed at 16/1 now (on my tracker).
 
10/11 now Ron - did you go BOG? I think I even saw 4/7 in places earlier today <yikes>

Must've pissed it down on the plain
 
Well there you go. I deserved that. Now I'm in serious trouble. Should have laid it off and cut my losses when the going turned.
 
****ing Timeform cost me there, but I should have checked. Once again they have Salisbury as good to firm for tomorrow; ATR have it as good to soft. And today it was soft. Who are we to believe?
 
I fancy Trade Secret tomorrow but I'm not going to be tempted; first time in a Group race.

It has to win now.
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Yippee. Trade Secret 15/8 Fav and last of 7. I avoided another loser. That's like having a winner at present.
 
Risky but will have £2,000 win on Rosdhu Queen (Newbury 16.00) at 2/1 freely available
 
Ron said:
Risky but will have £2,000 win on Rosdhu Queen (Newbury 16.00) at 2/1 freely available
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Needed that. £4,000 profit (and SP was 11/10)


Betting Bank £6,200
Piggy Bank £4,000
 
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