Wednesday 19th June Daily Thread

Chigun 11/4 3:05 Ascot
Camelot 11/4 3:45 Ascot(nap)

 

Four selections for me tomorrow

Royal Ascot
Garswood 5-1
Beldale Memory 4-1 NAP
Educate 12-1
Nargys 20-1

Lucky15 with an each way accumulator

Garswood looked very capable in his guineas prep race and although probably never going to be Group one standard is very much up to this standard.

Beldale Memory could be very special based on his easy York win.

Educate has always had Royal Ascot written all over him since his first run back this year. One unexplained run aside he has done nothing but improve each time and is definitely ready for this.

Nargys could be a bit of class in this race as I recall Fallon saying he thought he should have beaten just the judge on her at the back end of last year, not sure why but he must have fallen out with the owner as is not riding it now nor the other runner in the same colours earlier, even though Luca Cumani trains both.

 

Beldale is a she

 

So you did not fall for the never-won-over-a-mile, never-won-on-a-straight-course, only one win from four races on turf American wonder horse? Well done. That is the easy day of the meeting over. Now most of the races should be avoided like the plague.

Day two starts with a race that usually features Guineas failures dropping back a furlong or lightly-raced unexposed types. First fact to consider: this is a shocking race for favourites. So top-rated Irish Guineas runner-up Gale Force Ten does not look the one after Magician’s poor showing on Tuesday even if that is far and away the best form. Second-top Garswood disappointed in the Newmarket Guineas but the drop in distance might help; whilst Here Comes When is becoming expensive to follow and his Epsom conqueror Well Acquainted looks equally up against it. Tawhid’s third in Germany is not considered good enough by the owner’s jockey as Hanagan has plumped for the unbeaten Ajraam, a handicap winner last time. On paper neither of the French challengers look good enough but clearly Jean-Claude Rouget has not brought unbeaten Listed winner Mutin here for the fresh air and it carries the owner's first colours. Pearl Flute’s Group 3 win at Longchamp (receiving weight) looks at least reasonable form and he could give Qatar Racing a second win of the meeting at decent odds.

What used to be the Windsor Forest is now the Duke Of Cambridge and looks to revolve around the market principles. Sir Michael Stoute’s Dank gave Chigun weight and a beating at Newmarket and it is hard to see how that form should be reversed over an extra furlong despite the latter’s subsequent facile win over a mile. Best of the foreign raiders would appear to be disqualified Group 1 winner Duntle, victorious over a mile last month, rather than Sarkiyla, touched off in a Saint Cloud Group 2 seven weeks ago. Thistle Bird could be a live contender but is held on form by Chigun.

On the ratings, the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes looks quite open, although it is hard to fancy top-rated globetrotter Red Cadeaux. John Gosden’s filly The Fugue comes here without the benefit of an outing and that will make it tough. Former French trained Saint Baudolino looks up against it on the balance of his form whilst still French trained Maxios may want it softer. Mukhadram will not get the uncontested lead he had last time with pacemaker Windsor Palace present and will need to improve. There is no reason to think that Camelot will reverse form with Al Kazeem from The Curragh so the favourite has to be the one unless the heavens open.

The Royal Hunt Cup may well be a bookies benefit if the pre-race gambles come unstuck. Pricewise will probably give the winner at 14/1 causing it to be backed to favouritism. If I was that desperate for a bet I would find two flies crawling up the wall.

As usual the Queen Mary has attracted a small handful and picking the winner should be a piece of cake. After the dismal showing of Wesley Ward’s runner in the Windsor Castle, Sweet Emma Rose should be easy to back. The usual assumption that Richard Hughes has the pick of the Hannon team suggests that maiden Oriel has been catching pigeons at home but gives no grounds for betting on it. Baytown Kestrel, Fast, Fire Blaze and Kaiulani have all run once and won once so market moves might indicate one of them is better than the bare form. The form pick appears to be York listed winner Beldale Memory - can she collect another two year old prize for Qatar Racing?

The Sandringham listed handicap will probably ensure that the bookies head back to their Mercedes and Bentleys with full satchels, although I note that Group-placed Woodland Aria is running off a rating of just 93. It will be a race worth noting as last year’s winner (Duntle) turned out to be quite decent.

 

In the two flys race I am having a dabble on Excellent Guest, the form is in the book and I think he is classy enough to win this and 16/1 is fair enough. Not going overboard with either bet, not giving much back to the bookmaker!

 

Whilst 1m2f clearly isn't his ideal trip and he may get outpaced, on his Meydan form over tthe distance behind a certain Animal Kingdom, Red Cadeaux looks way overpriced at 20/1 in the PoW. Al Kazeem looks a worthy favourite, but I'm going for a small e/w on Ed Dunlop's globe trotting gelding, who has a chance today to take his career earnings over the £1mill mark.

 

I think 1 is being majorly overlooked today in the queen Mary. Quatour won very impressively over fast ground twice and struggled on the softer surface last time out behind Bledsoe memory. Back to a sound surface and a reasonable draw should have a cracking chance and with 4 places can't see her being outside it! Interestingly the trainer and jockey combo won this with ceiling kitty last year. 16/1 and going to double up with educate

As soon as I posted the price went to 25/1. The double is a mere 393/1

 

As a spectacle I love the "2 flies" races. A small ew dabble on Fury and Sweet Lightning for some financial interest. I do like Prince of Johanne but Fury beat him last season and I can't see the placings reversed today with Fury 6lb better off. Sweet Lightning also to show Murtagh is not just a decent pilot.
In the Queen Mary Survived and in the Sandringham Light up my life. Good luck all.

Oh and Handsome Buddy, Brilliant Barca, Cool Mission and George Woolf in a little ew lucky 15 at the big meeting of the day in Uttoxeter.

 

Viva la France
2:30 Mutin
3:05 Sarkiyla
3:45 Maxios

 

Al Kazeem appears to be drifting - interesting.
I was starting to lean towards Camelot anyway

 

I'm told there is confidence behind DAVID LIVINGSTON in the Hunt Cup.

My small Lucky 31 for the day (yesterday's broke even!):

2.30 The Brother's War
3.45 The Fugue
4.25 David Livingstone
5.00 Rizeena
5.35 Hint of a Tint

 

Ascot 4.25 Spa's Dancer 25/1

Don't be fooled by the write up the Aga Khan's filly remains my best bet of the day, but I think I have found some value in the Royal Hunt Cup and I will explain why. Spa's Dancer comes into today's race on the back of 2 runs this season, his first 2 for new trainer James Eustace. In his first run for his new handler he travelled the best horse under Tom Queally before being headed on the line and beaten a nose. Possibly needing the run that day he gave a 1lb to his conqueror, Directorship, who subsquently went in again next time out ('readily' by 3 1/2L). Spa's Dancer's next run was a 2 1/4L victory with Ryan Moore in the saddle. I really believe there is more to come from James Eustace's 6 year old and it seems Ryan Moore agrees as he takes the ride again today when I imagine he had the choice of a few of these. The draw looks to have done him a massive favour as he'll break from trap 30 (of 30) and I can't quite work out how you can get 25/1 about a LTO winner with one of the nations fav. and best jockeys in the saddle and a favourable draw. Well worth a go imho in what is one of the toughest races of the year to solve.

 

This was going to be my Nap, mainly for the reasons you gave, but has the best of the draw and alot of pace on the inside also for me, massively overpriced.

 

Surely the 9/4 about Camelot W/O Al Kazeem is the bet for the 3.45 Ascot.

 

14:30 - Garswood 6/1 (2pts ew)
15:05 - Chigun 3.6/1 (1pt win)
15:45 - Camelot 4/1 (10 pts ew)
16:25 - David Livingston 16/1 (2pts ew)
17:00 - Rizeena 7/1 (2pts ew)
17:35 - Fleeting Smile 16/1 (1pt ew)

 

Maybe finishing last on her in her only subsequent race had something to do with it.

 

Wow good point Blue, he was retained by the Owner and it looks like he's now unattached.

 

My attempt at going through the card today consists of:

Mutin 8/1
Duntle 3/1
Al kazeem 5/2
Educate 14/1
Quatuor 25/1
Nargys

Small stakes ew heinz

 

GG-Wise...
ROTO-Wise...
Stick-Wise...
Uncle-Wise...

May as well just follow the forum GGW...

There isnt any Red-Wise though...