Daily Thread Saturday 29th June 2013

Curragh

15.40 Caponata- 9/4 NB
18.30 Ruler Of the World - Evens NAP

Caponata a lightly raced filly - sets a very high standard shes won a similar Listed event and is pen to more improvement and can gallop them into submission coming back to 1m. Ruler of the world- as mentioned the record of the derby winners coming back to win the irish version is very good not to mention the Obrien record in the race, altho didnt look great at chester he was supberb in the derby but he has got joseph on this time but as long as he doesnt get blocked in (MOTH) again he will cruise to victory

Newcastle

15.15 Tominator-9/1 (Drawn Low)
15.15 Arch Villain- 14/1 (Drawn High)

Have taken my chances in this race- going from one high draw Arch Villian- altho drawn out in the sticks in stall 22 The star horse that is Overturn overcame this draw so its not impossible bit of luck in running will help but am a big fan of the jockey and like this horse alot and can see him winning tomorrow. Then again if its the low numbers that will win- I have to have the 2011 winner on my side, looked good in the chester cup and thrives in these big fields likes the track and Jonjo wouldnt have sent him up north without a chance! 9/1 is a great e/w price


Newmarket

14.55 Harris Tweed- 9/4
15.30 Hawkeyethenoo- 4/1

Harris Tweed one of my favs, back him everytime he runs altho he has been expensive will give him another shot, would prefer a bit more juice but he can out run this weak lot from the front! Hawkeyethenoo was unlucky at Ascot not to come closer this a drop down of 2 grades and i cant beleive he is 4/1 he has a lot of pace and imo is alot better than this field!

 

2 in the Northumberland Plate for me tomorrow. Chester Cup 1 and 2 Address Unknown and Ingleby Spirit each way. Good luck all.

 

Good night.

 

3.15 Newcastle

Handsome Man 11/1

The in form Saeed bin Suroor looks to have a great chance of landing this in my opinion with his unexposed and progressive handsome man and I think this 4 year old will relish the step up to 2m today. Progressive in his 3 year old season, Handsome Man signed off last year with an impressive victory over 1m6f at Yarmouth last September in a race that has worked out well enough and has started this season in the same vein of form running two blinding 2nds so far this year. Off marks of 92 and 95, Handsome Man has been a narrowly beaten runner up in a couple of races over 1m4f this year in decent contests and despite going up another 3lb to a career high of 98 I think he'll improve significantly for the step up in trip to 2m today. Robert Winston takes the ride today with SDS banned and Barzalona at Newmarket and I think he has a great draw in stall 2 which should allow him to bag a rail position which could be crucial. Seemingly decent on all ground, Handsome Man is still unexposed with only 11 starts to date and I'm hoping this upwardly mobile 4 year old can land this big prize at a decent price.

4.15 Curragh

Gathering Power 6/1

I was extremely impressed with the manner of Gathering Power's first success LTO (as put up by Boris) when deservedly scoring at the 8th time of asking having been unlucky on several occasions and if this 3 year old filly copes with the quick surface then I think she's going to take some amount of beating off a 9lb higher mark with the step back up to 7f looking sure to suit. In 6 races as a 2 year old, Edward Lynam's filly was an unlucky loser on quite a few occasions and looked to pull up when she hit the front last year. After another pretty luckless reappearance, Gathering Power deservedly shed her Maiden tag with a really impressive victory back in May in a really strong contest that has worked out really well. Held up a the rear of competitive 6f contest at Naas, Gathering Power looked a little outpaced on occasions early on but she made up a substantial amount of ground in the final 2f to win going away by 1.5L and a big positive that day was she ran all the way to the line having hit the front sooner than ideal. The form of that race is extremely strong with the runner up finishing 2nd in a Group 3 subsequently, the 4th Abstraction winning comfortably off the same mark NTO, the 6th Toccata Blue winning a rated race whilst a number of other horses from that contest have run extremely well too. Given how commanding her victory was, the 9lb rise to 90 seems very fair and if continuing her progression she could prove very difficult to beat here. I'm definitely concerned about the quick surface as all her form has come with give underfoot but the very shrewd and in form Ed Lynam wouldn't risk her on unsuitable ground. The excellent Johnny Murtagh takes over in the plate today and I really think she'll appreciate the step up to 7f significantly today. If as good on the ground, I think it'll take a very well handicapped horse to beat her but I'm confident she can be victorious.

7.10 Curragh

Call Me Bubbles 5/1

Willie Mullins's Call Me Bubbles had an outstanding 3 year old campaign as he shot up 31lb for 2 wins and a narrow beaten 3nd in three flat starts last year but having proven he's in rude health this year winning 2 of 3 starts over hurdles and still only a 4 year old I think he'll take a lot of beating in this. Looking distinctly average over inadequate trips as a 2 year old, the step up to middle distances was the making of Call Me Bubbles as he overcame trouble in running to lead on the line off a mark of 54 from the progressive Beach Of Falesa (went up 23lb subsequently) over 12f at Roscommon last July before winning at the Galway Festival off a 13lb higher mark of 67 from the even better handicapped/progressive Inis Meain (now rated 40lb higher) which saw him shoot up again to a mark of 82. His winning run came to an end off that mark in a better race than this at Leopardstown last September when losing a head bobber to I Have A Dream over 14f but he lost absolutely nothing in defeat with the winner running an eye catching 5th off a 4lb higher mark of 106 in the Cesarewitch on his only subsequent start (superb effort as a 3 year old) and the 3lb rise to a mark of 85 seems very fair. Sure to appreciate the step up to 2m, Call Me Bubbles comes fit from hurdling where he was twice a comfortable winner and with Pat Smullen resuming his unbeaten partnership with this grey I think he's going to take an awful lot of beating.

7.45 Newmarket

Kakatosi 7/1

Hopefully the rain stays away as if any falls it will scupper his chances but Mike Murphy's 6 year old has ran really well on his last 2 starts off his current mark of 84 when 4th and 2nd respectively and given that he is still well handicapped on old form (rated 104 as a 3 year old for Andrew Balding) I'm confident of another big performance. Although a mile definitely raises some stamina doubts, Kakatosi has been staying on very strongly over 7f the last twice and his only run over 1m to date was a good one (beaten less than a length; faded close home) and I definitely think there is a strong chance he'll stay the trip. Well drawn in stall 4, Kakatosi seems in very good order at the moment for the in form Mike Murphy team and Ted Durcan looks a very interesting jockey booking. A little unlucky the last time when hampered leaving the stalls, if Kakatosi puts up another similar effort tonight he should run a really big race and I'm very hopeful he can land this winnable enough contest. Wouldn't surprise me if he takes a walk in the market so may get a double figure price at some stage today.

 

The ML guest is a barrel of laughs

 

My brothers at Windsor tomorrow so I've attempted to go through the Windsor Card, no doubt I'll get a big fat zero!

2:30 - Rizal Park 10/3 (nb)
3.05 - Secret Weapon 16/1
3.35 - Vasily 8/1
4.10 - Emell 5/2
4.40 - Rex Imperator 9/2
5.10 - Fortrose Academy 10/1
5.40 - Tilstar 7/1 (nap)

Jeffwise

 

Morning all.
2 lucky 15's today.
N/castle-2-05=Jack Dexter.
N/market-2-20=Fig Roll.
Chester-3-20=Duke Cosimo.
N/market-3-30=Ultrasonic.

N/market-4-05=Nabucco.
Chester-4-25=Khuduan.
N/market-4-35=Kingman.
Curragh-6-30-Libertarian. (Nap)
Good luck to all.

 

More interested in the tennis today but gonna have a bet in the Northumberland Plate. Moidor E.W..9/1 gp. The fact theres some juice in the ground will helo and his second to subsequent ascot stakes winner well sharp is good form. draw not too bad. Outstanding chance.....

 

2 small ones for me today at prices

Blue Bajan in the Northumberland Plate ew at 20s and Dick Bos in the Paddy Power Sprint e/w at 14s.

 

I'm going for L15 £1 win 440 wind out do 445 chest dalis lover 620 ling Putin 535 newm great timing fingers crossed

 

Am at Windsor and have been told FRENCH NAVY 11/4 is expected to win the 4.10 for Godolphin, good luck.

 

Afternoon all hope all is well I am going to be a bit crazy today but there is a reason I had a very profitable ew lucky 15 last sat an a very very profitable lucky 15 in the week good I know but they are what the bookies love and I don't want to get into that habit as I think it affecting my good ability to foresee outcomes , so I am allowing myself saturdays for crazy days to combat the issue.
SUPERHEINZ SATURDAY ew
405 nmk nabuko nap 4/1
350 ncs ablemaster 10/1
240ncs powerful presance 16/1
245 che silvanus 16/1
530 don sedgwick 10/1
335 wnd rawaki 14/1
510 wnd alfresco 25/1
Please realise I do not expect all or any of these to win they all seem to look good value ew singles to me good luck all

 

Next at Chester (2:45) for me is Sir Maximilian. Big weight to carry, but is useful type.

 

Touch of seconditis lately. Good run though by the top weight.

 

Bloody Baby Strange has been on my tracker for so long and I'd given up with him.