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Official Not606 USA GP Chat and Predictions

Discussion in 'Formula 1' started by EternalMSC, Oct 21, 2014.

  1. El_Bando

    El_Bando Can't remember, where was I?
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    It's going to happen
     
    #161
  2. di Fredsta!

    di Fredsta! Well-Known Member

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    It's definitely everyone has to run with their Q2 tyres if they get through. Then they all get a free set of tyres in Q3 which they have to give back.
     
    #162
  3. BrightLampShade

    BrightLampShade Well-Known Member
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    One of those situations of convincing myself that I was wrong it seems :)
     
    #163
  4. TheJudeanPeoplesFront

    TheJudeanPeoplesFront Well-Known Member

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    Let's see if Nico can make it through a Grand Prix going round all the corners correctly... Not holding out much hope to be honest, he's worse than me on F1 2013 <doh>

    If both cars hold together, I think Lewis wins handily, because I feel like Nico has gone for qualifying form over race consistency, again.
     
    #164
  5. TopClass

    TopClass Well-Known Member

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    One thing to remember here in Austin is grid position. Odd numbers (right side of the track) get a clean surface to start from and very often jump the evens (2md, 4th, 6th) etc, as we all remember from 'gearboxgate' with Alonso starting 7th and getting up to 3rd behind Lewis and Seb.

    Bottas with his nifty Williams really should be expecting to jump Hamilton, which will be an interesting war down the straights for a lap or two!
     
    #165
  6. BrightLampShade

    BrightLampShade Well-Known Member
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    Is the track better than last year or have the cars caught up to last year?

    This years pole is 0.3s quicker than last years.
     
    #166
  7. Eat Sleep Watch F1 Repeat

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    Rosberg has this in the bag if he doesn't make mistakes
     
    #167
  8. DHCanary

    DHCanary Very Well-Known Member
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    I vaguely remember hearing Sky discuss this, I think the cars have pretty much caught up, but the tyres are the main reason for the faster lap time.
     
    #168
  9. BrightLampShade

    BrightLampShade Well-Known Member
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    The closer the get the more I fear a Rosberg walking and a Hamilton car failure. With everyone else following two by two behind :(
     
    #169
  10. DHCanary

    DHCanary Very Well-Known Member
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    I think this could be the key to the whole GP really. If Hamilton is P2 at the end of the first lap then I think he'll win. If he's stuck behind Bottas then Rosberg will build a comfortable gap in the first stint and probably be able to manage the race.
     
    #170

  11. BrightLampShade

    BrightLampShade Well-Known Member
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    ideally both Mercs could do with being dsq'd from quali and then both starting from the pits.
     
    #171
  12. TheJudeanPeoplesFront

    TheJudeanPeoplesFront Well-Known Member

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    Rosberg probably took a shortcut :bandit:
     
    #172
  13. Smithers

    Smithers Well-Known Member
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    @F1Reddit: Race simulator predictions: USA 2014 http://t.co/PB6qjHTp7E


    I posted my first race simulator predictions here for the 2014 Russian Grand Prix, which turned out to be much more accurate than I expected. So, here is the US edition! For details of the simulator (which is very simple compared to the types of simulators teams will be using), please see here.
    THE TRACK
    Unlike Sochi, I was able to get some track data from the previous two races at Austin.
    Pit-stops: The net time lost on a typical pit-stop at Austin is ~20 seconds. This is middle of the range. By comparison, the net time lost is ~14 seconds in Britain and ~26 seconds in Italy.
    Tyre degradation: For this race, Pirelli are fielding soft and medium tyres, as they did in Australia, Bahrain, China, Belgium, Hungary, and Russia. I have been able to estimate some basic characteristics of these compounds (time difference and relative durability) from these previous races. I was also able to estimate specific degradation rates for Austin based on the longest runs in FP2. Unlike Sochi, we (mercifully) have clear degradation on long runs, as shown in this graph of the timing data from each driver&#8217;s longest run on prime tyres in FP2.
    RACE STRATEGIES
    Given the rate of degradation and the moderate penalty associated with an extra pit-stop, the simulator predicts this is most likely to be a two-stop race, although three stops may also be viable for some. The estimated optimal two-stop strategy for a driver running their own race in clean air is two stints of about 17 laps each on softs then one stint of about 22 laps on mediums. However, racing considerations may cause the first pit-stop to shift earlier. The soft tyres should be slower than fresh mediums after about 15 laps, so I expect some drivers to stop around that mark to prevent an undercut.
    THE RACE LEADERS
    This one looks like a two-horse race, with nobody matching the Mercedes team on either single-lap or long-run pace. Hamilton is starting behind, on the dirty side of the track (which I&#8217;ve now included in the simulator), and may have slightly worse long-run pace based on the short stint he ran in FP2 (only two meaningful lap times). If he gets jumped by either Williams off the line, it may take him several laps to get ahead, especially given they are 2-3 km/h quicker in a straight line. The overall probabilities of winning (obtained by running the race simulation thousands of times and counting the number of times each event occurred) are below. Unless something goes horribly wrong for both Mercedes, this is clearly their race to win.
    Predicted probability of winning
    Rosberg: 72%
    Hamilton: 22%
    Massa: 4%
    BATTLE FOR THE PODIUM
    Behind the Mercedes, two teams stand out as the quickest on long-run pace: Williams and Red Bull, with Ferrari and McLaren just behind. Of the two Williams drivers, Massa showed the stronger long-run pace in FP2. The model predicts that in clean air he should be able to pull away from Bottas at about 3 tenths per lap, but DRS could easily keep them together. Ricciardo&#8217;s long-run pace is somewhere between the two Williamses, so leapfrogging one of them is not out of the question if he can be clever with his tyre management. On average, across all uninterrupted stints this year, Ricciardo has managed to run a lap longer on primes and a lap longer on options than either Williams driver. In a straight fight, passing either Williams will be difficult, as they are 10-11 km/h quicker than him.
    Interestingly, Vettel, who starts dead-last, has the best long-run pace of anyone behind the Mercedes. In clean air (which he may not see much of) and on fresh tyres, he is predicted to be 3 tenths quicker than Ricciardo, although he also wears his tyres more quickly across a stint than Ricciardo. It should therefore be fascinating to see Vettel moving his way through the field. By the end, the model thinks he could be in touch with his teammate. Both Red Bulls are relatively slow in a straight line, so he will need to be opportunistic (making dives into turn 16).
    Predicted probability of finishing 3rd
    Massa: 45%
    Vettel: 20%
    Ricciardo: 17%
    Bottas: 12%
    BATTLE FOR POINTS
    This race should be a very close battle between Ferrari and McLaren. On long-run pace, Alonso and Magnussen look identical, so we could see another good scrap between them, as we did at Spa. Button is within a tenth of his teammate, and unusually so is Raikkonen. However, Button&#8217;s race is badly compromised by his five-place grid penalty. He is only slightly quicker (2-3 tenths) than the cars around him, so passing them will be difficult for him. The model predicts a 25% chance of getting back into the points.
    Predicted probability of finishing 6th or higher
    Magnussen: 43%
    Raikkonen: 31%
    Alonso: 30%
    Button: 1%
    SCRAMBLING FOR POINTS
    Overall, this is not looking like a great weekend for Force India. On long-run pace, they are slightly slower than the McLarens and Ferraris. Perez (64% chance of points) looks to have a slight advantage over Hulkenberg (57% chance of points), and both drivers will realistically be aiming for the lower points.
    Ordinarily, Force India would be challenged for these places by Toro Rosso, but their pace has looked abysmal so far. Neither Vergne (8% chance of points) nor Kvyat (7% chance of points) look to have the long-run pace to make any impact. Similarly, Maldonado starts 10th but can only realistically go backwards (or into the side of someone) from there.
    The dark horse here is Sauber, who have their best chance of scoring points since Monaco or Hungary, both of which relied on attrition. Their cars have looked quite convincing on single-lap pace in Austin. More importantly, on long-runs they can just about match Perez. Overall, these are very positive signs for them. Starting from 9th, Sutil has an estimated 57% chance of points, while Gutierrez, starting 15th, has a 32% chance of points. Nothing is certain, but if they can keep their noses clean they have some chance of catching Marussia in the constructors&#8217; championship.
     
    #173
  14. Mrcento

    Mrcento Active Member

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    A mix of cars developing, track getting grippier and softer tyres providing even more grip.

    Still very impressive though considering the cars were so much slower than last year at the start of the season!
     
    #174
  15. allsaintchris.

    allsaintchris. Well-Known Member

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    Hamilton's done okay here in the past, so either it's a problem with his setup or as you say he thinks he has one hand on the trophy, though why would he be snatching brakes if he were a bit too relaxed. Would suggest he is actually trying too hard if he is locking up too much of his own accord.

    Whilst it is doubtful we will have a 'race' (both Mercs massively quicker than anything else) it does seem Rosberg has the advantage, can he hold on to it?
     
    #175
  16. eddie_squidd

    eddie_squidd Well-Known Member

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    If as you suggest the braking issue is Hamilton's rather than the cars, then I don't think he will have any problem dispatching Rosberg from second. The simple strategy of stay in Rosberg's mirrors and steadily apply pressure until he makes an error will do him just fine.

    If the problem is with the car as Hamilton suggests then it may be more difficult to overcome if he can't brake with confidence or if lock ups wreck his tyres.
     
    #176
  17. Mrcento

    Mrcento Active Member

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    It was apparently his front left brake cooling too much which made it snatch.

    Running on heavier fuel will help, as would shrinking the brake duct on that side (good ole tape).

    I don't think it's too much of a problem for the race tbh.
     
    #177
  18. EternalMSC

    EternalMSC Well-Known Member

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    Missing the whole pre show. :D
     
    #178
  19. RoadRunner

    RoadRunner Well-Known Member

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    It's nearly 7am but I love waking up at this time for these kinds of races :)

    Also our pre-show mentioned a rumour that Alonso is trying to buy out Lotus along with Briatore and that he's trying to squeeze some engines from Ferrari. This would be the first I've heard about it, anyone else?
     
    #179
  20. SgtBhaji

    SgtBhaji Well-Known Member

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    He'd be bloody bonkers to risk all or part of his wealth on something like that.
     
    #180

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