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113th US Open from The Merrion Golf Club, Haverford Township, Pennsylvania

Discussion in 'General Betting Board' started by redcgull, Jun 11, 2013.

  1. redcgull

    redcgull Well-Known Member

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    The 113th US Open hits our screens this weekend with a whole new feel to what is one of the hardest events to win on the PGA Tour. Usually the scores required to win the US Open are all around the level par to -4 under range, this is because the USPGA want it to be as tough a test as possible, and they will try to live up to that promise again this weekend. As usual, the US Open visits a different course than in the previous 10 years or so, last year’s Olympic club was last seen on the Tour back in 1998. But a return to this year’s course, the Merion Golf Club in Pennsylvania, has took some 32 years to be seen again, mainly as it is a course that is under 7,000 yards long. The modern golf tracks of today dictate that the yardage be long because of the distance these golfers can hit the ball today. But not here at the Merion for this years renewal...

    The Merion Golf course is smaller in every way to the tracks they play on week in week out on the tour. The total area for the whole course is only 126 acres, compared to most other course’s which will be around 200 acres. The yardage this week being set at 6,996 yards is the shortest track by distance since they played Shinnecock Hills in 2004. Designed by a Scottish man, Hugh Irvine Wilson back in 1912, he came back to study the course’s in England and Scotland to see what improvements he could do to the golf course. It has the rolling fairways you will see on many of our Links style golf courses, plus it has a very ‘Scottish’ type of bunker, something that Hugh Wilson brought back from these shores. It is a stunningly beautiful course, ranked 7th in a list of ‘Americas 100 Great Golf Course’s’, with Jack Nicklaus saying that "Acre for acre, it may be the best test of golf in the world."

    One quirk that this course has which others do not is the wicker baskets on top of the flag sticks as to having flags. Though it hasn’t really got a definitive reason for why they have these baskets instead of flags, it dos add to the sense of history and tradition that this course has...




    My only problem with trying to find an angle into this year’s US Open is that most of the players will not have played on this course for a very long time, with the majority never to have played on it. So what type of player should we be looking for in trying to win the 113th US Open…?

    Well, if the quote of Ernie Els is anything to go by then we have a way in.

    "You're not going to see a firm U.S. Open this year, I'm sorry, I don't care if they get helicopters flying over the fairways. It's not going to dry up. We're going to have a soft golf course this week, all week. It means that if you're on your game you're going to have a lot of birdie putts. ... You're going to see a lot more birdies than ever at a U.S. Open."

    Thick rough and precarious pin placements may be Merion's last lines of defence...

    Els continued to say that the rough is "as bad as I've ever seen it. Merion's difficult closing holes, and it's tough par-3s, also will keep players from going too far into the red. It's going to be an exciting U.S. Open. What number is going to win, I have no idea. It's still a U.S. Open. I don't care if you play the easiest course in the world. Put U.S. Open in front of it, everybody gets nervous, especially over the weekend."


    So could we get another Rory McIlroy demolition job like he did in 2011 and shoot -16 par to win here…? If the fairways stay softish for the majority of the 4 days, and the greens don’t firm up, then the target players will be up at the top of the leaderboard. The pin placements seem to be the key to checking the scoring rate, so your GIR and Approach shots will be key. The bookies have Tiger Woods as favourite, 11/2, and I can see why as he will not be using his driver off most of the tees, as that is the biggest weakness in his game. If he gets that stinger shot he plays so well off the tee working, and his iron play zoned in, he will take some stopping. But to be honest he isn’t the only player who can play those type of shots, so it is not an exclusive club…

    In the past 5 years there have been only 6 players who have featured twice in the top 10, and 3 of them have won it. G-Mac won in 2010 at Pebble Beach, and came 2nd last year at the Olympic Club. Rory won in 2011 at Congressional, plus a 10th in 2009 at Bethpage. Tiger Woods last won the US Open back in 2008 at Torey Pines to go with his T4th at Pebble Beach in 2010. Of the regular top 10ers Lee Westwood and Sergio Garcia have threatened but always come up short. Lee’s best effort is a solo 3rd to Tiger Woods in 2008 where he missed a three way play off with Tiger and Rocco Mediate. Garcia’s efforts have not been as good as Lee over the past 5 years but he always seem to be there or there abouts. Only Phil Mickelson can be labelled with the tag of nearly man in the US Open as he has a collection of 5 runners up against his name, his last a 2nd to Lucas Glover at Bethpage in 2009…

    So all in all I will be looking for the player who has good approach shots, especially the 150 yards and nearer, as that is where most of the 2nd shots will be coming from. GIR is always a good stat as will be the Birdie conversion. And as always the player who can keep the ball in play the most, and avoid the dropped shots. We may well get a low score to win this year&#8217;s US Open, but it will not be easy&#8230; Looks like ive picked every stat here&#8230;<laugh>

    Right, all ive got to do now is pick a winner...<ok>
     
    #1
  2. redcgull

    redcgull Well-Known Member

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    Merion scorecard

    [table="width: 500"]
    [tr]
    [td]Hole[/td]
    [td]Par[/td]
    [td]Yardage[/td]
    [/tr]
    [tr]
    [td]1[/td]
    [td]4[/td]
    [td]350[/td]
    [/tr]
    [tr]
    [td]2[/td]
    [td]5[/td]
    [td]556[/td]
    [/tr]
    [tr]
    [td]3[/td]
    [td]3[/td]
    [td]256[/td]
    [/tr]
    [tr]
    [td]4[/td]
    [td]5[/td]
    [td]628[/td]
    [/tr]
    [tr]
    [td]5[/td]
    [td]4[/td]
    [td]504[/td]
    [/tr]
    [tr]
    [td]6[/td]
    [td]4[/td]
    [td]487[/td]
    [/tr]
    [tr]
    [td]7[/td]
    [td]4[/td]
    [td]360[/td]
    [/tr]
    [tr]
    [td]8[/td]
    [td]4[/td]
    [td]359[/td]
    [/tr]
    [tr]
    [td]9[/td]
    [td]3[/td]
    [td]236[/td]
    [/tr]
    [tr]
    [td]10[/td]
    [td]4[/td]
    [td]303[/td]
    [/tr]
    [tr]
    [td]11[/td]
    [td]4[/td]
    [td]367[/td]
    [/tr]
    [tr]
    [td]12[/td]
    [td]4[/td]
    [td]403[/td]
    [/tr]
    [tr]
    [td]13[/td]
    [td]3[/td]
    [td]115[/td]
    [/tr]
    [tr]
    [td]14[/td]
    [td]4[/td]
    [td]464[/td]
    [/tr]
    [tr]
    [td]15[/td]
    [td]4[/td]
    [td]411[/td]
    [/tr]
    [tr]
    [td]16[/td]
    [td]4[/td]
    [td]430[/td]
    [/tr]
    [tr]
    [td]17[/td]
    [td]3[/td]
    [td]246[/td]
    [/tr]
    [tr]
    [td]18[/td]
    [td]4[/td]
    [td]521[/td]
    [/tr]
    [tr]
    [td]Total[/td]
    [td]70[/td]
    [td]6,996[/td]
    [/tr]
    [/table]


    The fact that the 7th, 8th, 10th and 11th could be all hit from the tee box if they were dye straight means that there are a few of them that will be targeting the green with their drivers. This could well produce some fireworks for us to watch this weekend... The par 13th sitting at only 115 yards is another that is against the norm for the Tour. The usual par 3's sit around the 220+ yards, so to have one so short is good. The comment by all the players is that the last 5 holes are really hard, even with the shorter yardage, so we will still get the drama of dropped shots and birdies that always make the big tournament so much better to watch...

    Im looking forward to this one as i think we will have a really close contest throughout the weekend...<cheers>
     
    #2
  3. redcgull

    redcgull Well-Known Member

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    I have really struggled to find what i think is a really good fit for this course as,

    1) They havnt played here for ages, 32 years to be exact…
    2) Hardly any of the tracks they play on in the PGA Tour resemble this course…
    3) And this could be one of those Opens where a Lucas Glover wins it at odds of over 150/1…

    The top players like Tiger, Rory and Big Phil are way to short for this years tournament as it looks wide as open as it has ever been for a long time. This also means that I might place another bet come the cut on Friday night as there might be a bit of value if the scores are tight...


    In the last few years, 2011 at Congressional and at Bethpage in 2009, the rain and wind have been a big factor, and both threw up polar results. Firstly back in 2009 at Bethpage the conditions were described as the wettest in the US Open history. Lucas Glover won that event with a final score of -4, only 4 other players finished below par. On the flip side to that particular ‘wet’ US Open, Rory McIlroy made a bit of a mockery of the 'wet' conditions to shoot an incredible -16 under to win the title of 2011 US Open by 8 clear shot. So when it comes to this year’s event, well, I think it’s become a bit of a lottery for us punters, but that won’t stop us…!!!


    So, with my better judgement taking me away from anyone in the top 20 of the market, i have gone with the following...

    Rickie Fowler is one player who isn’t having the best of seasons so far but has played the Merion course recently, well back in 2009 in truth, and he played superb in very similar conditions. This was in the Walker Cup, and he won all 4 of his match ups, and did so very impressively as well. He has had 4 Top 25’s and 3 Top 10’s this year with a best of a T3rd in the Arnold Palmer event back in March. Even though he has struggled a bit with his game he still ranks 34th in All-Round Ranking for the year. Sits 32nd in Scrambling and 31st in Total Putting so he is in with a chance…

    Henrick Stenson has hit all the right notes for me so far this season and I am hoping that the short course and its positioning of the ball around the fairways and greens will be just to his liking. He is the number 1 ranked player when it comes to Driving Accuracy, and although that's not the most needed of the players’ skills for this week, it’s a bloody good one to have in your armoury. He has great stats in the GIR department all round, meaning that he sits 3rd overall in the GIR rankings. His putting is a slight worry, but if the greens are going to be a touch slower because of the conditions, then this may well help him find the hole with more regularity…

    Ryan Palmer is one that I have followed on and off this year, and I have been lucky that he has won me a bit of money back so far. He comes here on the back of a solo 4th in the St Jude Classic last week and has been consistent for a while now. Sits 6th in Birdie Average, 7th in Scoring Average and 8th in Par Breakers, and this reflects on his ability to move the ball around the golf course to get the best out of his rounds. If he starts to pepper the flag with a bit more accuracy, and can get that putter going, then there is no reason for him not to have a shout out come the end of Sunday night…

    Russell Henley is going to be my Lucas Glover for this years 2013 US Open, and he isn’t without a chance on paper. Sits impressively at 9th in Overall Ranking, 9th in Strokes Gained Putting, plus he is 8th for Birdie Average on all holes. He also ranks 6th in Total Putting, something that ultimately wins you tournaments, just like he did back in January for the opening tournament of the year in Hawaii. It may well be his first full year on the PGA Tour, but he is making a big impression…


    Rickie Fowler @ 66/1…
    Henrick Stenson @ 70/1…
    Ryan Palmer @ 100/1…
    Russell Henley @ 110/1…


    All done in the usual £2.50 e/w… PadPow pays ¼ odds top 6…<cheers>
     
    #3
  4. YouCanCallMeJeff

    YouCanCallMeJeff Active Member

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    I've gone all Nordic. Brandt Snedeker (33/1), Henrik Stenson (70/1), Bubba Watson (90/1 <eek>)

    Will try and write something up if i get a chance.

    Cracking thread as always red <cheers>
     
    #4
  5. redcgull

    redcgull Well-Known Member

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    Nice one Jeff, i had a look at Snedeker as well, plus we've both plumped for Henrick...<ok>

    Good luck pal...<cheers>
     
    #5
  6. YouCanCallMeJeff

    YouCanCallMeJeff Active Member

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    Paddypower paying 7 places if you put the bet on using your mobile

    Rory seems big at 25/1, on his day he will blow the rest away
     
    #6
  7. Chaninbar

    Chaninbar The Crafty Cockney

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    Off the cliff with Stenson again. Just surprised that a few are following me!
     
    #7
  8. Smokin Beau

    Smokin Beau Member

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    Goodluck everyone who plays on this tournament!

    This is the one that got me into playing golf back in '06 when Geoff Ogilvy won! Was a cracking finish to a tough tournament.

    Onto this year, and i have five players i gone with, all at various stakes

    Geoff Ogilvy - 150/1 - £2 e/w - Surprise surprise this guy enters my betting slip again. I back him every week so i dont really have a 'real' reason for his selection apart from i do think he plays best on hard courses.

    Jordan Speith - 140/1 - £2.50 e/w - I still believe this guy will one day become a great! Shares the spoils with a certain Tiger Woods of being the only player to have won more than 1 US junior amateur.

    Billy Horshel - 80/1 - £3 e/w - Been very impressed with this guy this year.

    Bubba Watson - 80/1 - £3 e/w - Hopefully he will become the first left hander to win the US Open. Love this guys game, plays with a certain flair that i love to watch

    Louis Oosthuizen - 66/1 - £4 e/w - My second Fav player behind Geoff, i hope he can recapture his early season form.

    GOODLUCK ALL!
     
    #8
  9. redcgull

    redcgull Well-Known Member

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    Good on yer lads...:emoticon-0148-yes:


    Looks like we all have a chance by the sounds of it as the weather looks like being the winner this weekend...
     
    #9
  10. SaveTheHumans

    SaveTheHumans Well-Known Member

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    Lee Westwood 33/1 - Catapulted up the scrambling stats, is consistent off the tee, beautiful striker of the golf ball and I hope his putting comes good for 4 day's and he can hole some good birdies. Huge chance now his short game stats have improved. Short game will be vital to win a US Open here.

    Henrik Stenson 70/1 - Leads the driving accuracy stats and greens in regulation and that will be vital here , keeping it on the fairway and giving yourself a chance to score could prove the decisive factor and Stenson seems to have everything in order it is now just a matter of can he put 4 good rounds together and win this.

    Dustin Johnson 45/1 - Hasn't lit it up of late but is more than capable on his day. Has the potential to overpower the course if his driving/woods are on song and if the short game holds up will rate as a huge danger to take down the title having come close in a past US Open he will know what is required.

    5euro each way with Paddy.

    Good luck guy's. Seems a few of us are thinking along the same lines with Henrik Stenson so hopefully he can be thereabouts come Sunday and I hope we don't get to much weather delay's later on.

    Also have done two small 2 euro win bets on Thorbjorn Olesen 125/1 and Sang Moon Bae 200/1 just incase one pops up the time I was going to miss them.
     
    #10

  11. redcgull

    redcgull Well-Known Member

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    #11
  12. redcgull

    redcgull Well-Known Member

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    Only a few gone out so far so its a bit to early to see how bad the course is playing. Most of the picks have yet to play a ball in anger yet...<ok>
     
    #12
  13. Smokin Beau

    Smokin Beau Member

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    Storm hit a bit earlier than expected!

    Seems like a lot of rain and wind are due all day now. Would b very surprised if we get all players getting 18 holes in today now
     
    #13
  14. SaveTheHumans

    SaveTheHumans Well-Known Member

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    ****ing weather for ya..can't live with it can't live without it. Yes, I very much doubt they will get near finishing the first round proper today. PGA have been dogged by the poor weather systems this year.
     
    #14
  15. GGW

    GGW Well-Known Member

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    Els & Dufner e/w and Phil win only.
     
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  16. GGW

    GGW Well-Known Member

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    Go on Phil lad
     
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  17. GGW

    GGW Well-Known Member

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    Els 100/1 2ew
    Dufner 80/1 2ew
    Phil 28/1 2win
     
    #17
  18. redcgull

    redcgull Well-Known Member

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    Nice start George... I shall add you to the leaderboard...<ok>
     
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  19. redcgull

    redcgull Well-Known Member

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    Leaderboard after some of the 1st round was completed....

    http://www.majorschampionships.com/us-open/leaderboard.html

    Please click on the link to see where the forum picks are, as there are 17 picks in total, some good, some not so good...

    Luuuuuuuke Donald is the overnight leader, at -4, and he still has a few holes left to play to complete his first round. Unfortunately that is because of the weather that has blighted the preparations and playing of this years US Open. Not that you would think so if you look at how good the course and especially the greens were playing. We didnt get the expected flood of players shooting 65's or there abouts, but what we did get was a lesson in keeping the ball on the fairways and putting the ball in the right parts of the green. If you erred off the fairways a couple of feet or so, you invariably dropped a shot, or had to work damn hard to make par...

    It all makes for a great looking championships and you could't really count anyone out who is within 6/7 shots of the leader...<cheers>
     
    #19
  20. Smokin Beau

    Smokin Beau Member

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    Red

    The link is just to the general leaderboard, although i can pre select everyones picks and do my own leaderboard too !

    The course has held up really well, my picks have been a little horrendous so far!
     
    #20

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