A couple of breeders: 2014

After a couple of years of doing this here’s 2014’s look at the two owner/breeders I mainly follow. Both The Royal Stud and the Ballymacoll Stud had a reasonable 2013, how does 2014 look?

First Ballymacoll and there are a few changes worth noting. The first is that having produced the Musidora winner with her second foal, Serres (a Daylami sister to Conduit) was sold out of the stud leaving LN and a current yearling filly by Invincible Sprit to represent her in the future. Having also sold a couple of mares for a million guineas at the December Sales and also having ‘sold’ La Divina’s first foal by Dansili (La Divina is a full-sister to Islington: and the filly is uninspiringly called Danvina) the stud is obviously shoring up its finances. It goes into 2014 with 18 mares, but Athene (the only remaining member of the Gaily/Pilsudski family) is 23 and Highland Gift (dam of Golan and Tartan Bearer) is 21. So the number is likely to drop to 16 and one has to look at likely recruits. One is Bohemian Dance, who stays in training but has been sent to Florida, presumably to pick up some black type. Amongst the 3yo fillies is a full-sister to Bohemian Dance, called Upper Street, so unlikely to be kept unless her older sister is sold or she is something out of the ordinary. There is a beautifully bred Galileo filly out of Highland Gift called Long View who I’d imagine highly likely to be retained (she is Golan and Tartan Bearer’s half-sister). Meehan trains a filly called Emerald Swell who is by Dalakhani out of a disappointing, now sold, mare called Dance of the Sea (who is a half-sister to Spectrum and Conduit’s dam). If she has some racing ability she might be retained. The last 3yo filly is Conveyor Belt and here we have a further change for Ballymacoll in that this filly is in training with David O’Meara, a new trainer for the owners. Conveyor Belt is out of Golan’s full-sister Gift Range, who was surprisingly sent to Frankel and produced a colt foal. There must have been some reason for that decision and this filly could be it (though my feeling is that it’s the 2yo colt Christmas Hamper by Dubawi). One point (and I’ve made it before) is that all four 3yo fillies are currently unraced and this continues to be a worrying trait of the stud’s stock.

As a stud Ballymacoll are riding high through the exploits of Fiorente, who has now added a 10f Group 1 race to his Melbourne Cup win, and is apparently Royal Ascot bound. His 4yo season, when still owned by the stud, was a real disappointment with him winning only one fairly ordinary Group 2. So the stud have not had an older flag-bearer for some years (since Conduit really) and their only 4yo colt is the once-raced Arab Spring. He ran well enough on his only start last year and the form looked reasonable. For some reason he did not appear after May and for some reason they’ve kept him in training, so I’ll be surprised if he does not win a maiden early on and then try to progress to listed events. He should stay 14f if necessary but should be effective over 10-12f. Being by Monsun (the sire of Fiorente) out of Spring Symphony (the dam of Australian Group 1 winner Glass Harmonium) one can’t help thinking that if this colt shows some ability he’ll soon be Oz bound.

As regards the rest of the 3yos, obviously colts and geldings, only one is entered for the Derby and that is the Danehill Dancer colt Festival Theatre. Out of the Irish Oaks 2nd Scottish Stage he did win over 7f as a 2yo. His siblings have shown flair but temperament. Stoute doesn’t leave horses in the Derby if they’ve no chance so I’d expect to see this colt appearing in a Classic Trial sometime in April or May. All that was said about him last year was that he had surprising speed given his breeding.

There are two other colts in training with Stoute. The first is by Cape Cross out of Spring Symphony, so therefore a half-brother to Arab Spring, called Song of Namibia. Unraced as a 2yo I’d be surprised if he’s not capable of picking up a maiden and going on from there. The other entire colt is Tercel, who is by Monsun out of the recently purchased Kitty Hawk. I like Monsun as a sire and he’ll be missed, but I’d keep a watching brief on this colt for now.

Next comes a quartet of geldings (4 seems a lot to me), 3 of which are unraced. The runner (and winner) is Love Tangle, who was destined for the Autumn Sales then must have thrown in an eyecatching gallop at Brian Meehan’s. His victory at Nottingham was achieved with the minimum of fuss and he looked a stayer in the making. Handicaps at 12f+ look to be his future and for his sake one can only hope the handicapper gives him a chance. The three unraced geldings are with Stoute and top of the list is Jone des Champs (a Montjeu half-brother to Fiorente); next comes Pas de Cheval, who is a Pivotal half-brother to Patkai and like him should stay; the final one is Montone (a first foal) who is by Danehill Dancer out of Golan’s half-sister Leocorno. They all have eyecatching pedigrees and if they improve with racing I’m sure Stoute will win races with them.

We are unlikely to see a Ballymacoll 2yo on the track before July/August so there is little point in saying too much now. The already mentioned Christmas Hamper looks interesting, the filly Yarrow, a half-sister to Golan by Sea the Stars, has a great pedigree while my own personal favourite is Moruadh, who is a filly by Fastnet Rock out of the consistent mare Olympienne (dam of Patkai): more of these in midsummer.

For the Queen last year, as an owner, it was mostly about Estimate and her win in the Gold Cup. She stays in training and hopefully will be able to complete a full season this year as after the Royal Ascot race she was unwell, and managed just one tepid performance in October. She should reappear in either the Sagaro Stakes or Henry II Stakes before returning to defend her title. Hopefully stronger she should have every chance of going for the Stayer’s Triple Crown. Estimate is of course not bred by the Royal Stud as she is part of an arrangement with the Aga Khan which has seen several fillies become the property of The Queen.

Amazingly the Queen does not have a 3yo, or older, entire colt in training. All of her 3yos have now been gelded. The best of the older geldings should be Bold Sniper, who won 3 races last year before a lacklustre performance at the Goodwood Festival. Bold Sniper is the 4th foal and fourth winning colt out of the Daylami mare Daring Aim. As said before all have been difficult horses but all have won races and this is the best of them so far. I imagine he’ll be aimed at 12f big handicaps and Group 3 events. If he improves for gelding he should be worth following. The best of the other 4yos should be Prince’s Trust who only ran a handful of races last year and looked fairly useful. Hannon certainly thought something of him and at 8f and on good or softer ground he should be worth following. The other older horses are Border Legend and Sea Shanty, who should both add to their scores this year, but are exposed.

Last year’s only winning 2yo colt was Musical Comedy and he improved with racing and was a smart winner of 3 races over 6f. This gelding (now) comes from the stud’s lesser family of Rhyme Royal/Soprano but is capable of producing decent horses. His dam Spinning Top was 2nd in the Lupe Stakes so there’s every reason to believe Musical Comedy could get further, maybe 8f. He was definitely suited by softer ground and if Hannon can place him he’ll win more races this year. Of the other 3yo geldings Purple Spectrum looks the most promising. He is trained by ‘new’ Royal trainer William Haggas and ran a promising debut late last year. By Verglas out of a Rainbow Quest mare who is a descendent of the Queen’s Nassau winner Starlet, he ought to get 10f and I’ll expect him to give Haggas his first Royal winner (Haggas has 3 horses at the moment this year : another 3yo gelding called Trepidation, of whom I expect little, and a 2yo filly, first foal of Golden Stream by Dansili, called Thames Pageant who looks interesting). Charlton has two 3yo geldings, Sharp Lookout and Dumfries House, who need to improve a bit. Hannon has a (Juddmonte) brought-in gelding called Bold Spirit who only looks average.

The 3yo fillies look far more interesting, and they are headed by one home bred and one brought-in. The home bred is Queen’s Prize of whom I’ve written elsewhere and I won’t repeat here other than to say I’m hoping for a lot from her. The brought-in filly is Shama, who got plenty of glowing gallop reports last year which included mention of her size. 17 hands is very big for a racehorse but this filly is reputedly 18 hands, which is enormous. Despite the growth that must have taken place last year she did have a run at Kempton and performed very well coming third. She is entered for the Oaks and if that race was run over a straight 12f I’d be interested in her as a long shot: but it isn’t. By Danehill Dancer out of a great granddaughter of Shergar’s dam (so from the Aga Khan) she is beautifully bred. If Stoute really thinks she has classic potential then a race like the Pretty Polly Stakes at Newmarket would be a possibility for her. She remains a fascinating prospect.

Stoute has another Aga Khan donation (not strictly a donation as the Queen pays the sire’s nomination fee) called Dalmatia. A grey filly by Cape Cross out of a half-sister to Daylami and Dalakhani (which is where the grey comes from) she ran a perfectly acceptable debut as a 2yo and was then put away. I’d expect her to pick up a maiden over 10f and then to go on from that: a wonderful prospect for the Royal Stud.

Another brought-in filly is Fiery Sunset, who is by Galileo out of a descendent of El Gran Senor’s dam. Unraced as a 2yo she has been seen on Bell’s gallops this year and could be useful judged by her breeding. Bell had a lot of success with Set to Music in 2011 and hopefully he can do the same with this filly.

As regards the Royal breds there are a few fillies The Queen would like to see winning and possibly getting black type. Top of the list is probably Good Hope by Cape Cross out of the now deceased Fairy Godmother. The loss of this mare is a blow to the Queen as she was really the standard bearer for the Feola family of Hypericum, Aureole, Highclere and Height of Fashion. This family has withered in her stud while sold daughters have produced horses such as Nashwan, Unfuwain, Nayef, Ghanatti and Ask. I can’t help thinking this filly will go to the Royal paddocks whatever happens, but a win would be a bonus. She didn’t appear too bright on her outings in 2013 so keep a watching brief for now.

Not far behind her is Silver Mirage (by Oasis Dream) who is the Ribblesdale winner Phantom Gold’s last foal (Phantom Gold is the dam of the Queen’s Oaks 2nd Flight of Fancy as well as Golden Stream and others). She ran disappointingly on her only start but must be given another chance.

There are two other 3yo fillies from the Feola family and one of them, Micras (a Medicean great granddaughter of Highclere trained by Balding ), showed enough as a 2yo to make me believe she is worth following and her place at the stud. The other one is more problematical. Hannon has Kinloss who is by Kheleyf out of a granddaughter of Highclere’s dam Highlight. She disappointed as a 2yo on a few occasions and will need to do a lot better to win.

The remaining filly is Enliven (Balding), who is from a new family to the Royal Stud. By Dansili out of a Fasiliyev mare called Aurore, this filly comes from a strong French family that has produced stayers such as Ashmore and Aquarelliste. Unraced as a 2yo, she’s best watched for now.

Again there’s not much one can say about the 2yos at this stage. A lot of them are still to be allotted to trainers, and amongst them Awesome Power (Fairy Godmother’s last (colt) foal by Dubawi), Galley Proof (a Galileo colt out of Fictitious, a sister to Phantom Gold) and Pick Your Choice (an Elusive Quality colt out of the good filly Enticement) look the best on paper. Of the brought-in animals Starboard Beam, a filly by Sea the Stars out of a daughter of an Aga Khan Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe 2nd stands out.

Of the trainer allotted animals, the already mentioned, Thames Pageant and Dexterous, a Mastercraftsman half-sister to Queen’s Prize with Charlton, look promising on paper. Early types are likely to be two by new sire Paco Boy with Hannon: the first is Peacock, a half-brother to Purple Spectrum and the second is Pack Together, a filly out of New Assembly who is a great granddaughter of Highlight. Another 2yo to keep an eye on is Mustard, a Motivator colt out of a Darshaan sister to Phantom Gold, who is with Stoute and could be hot. I’ll say more of the 2yos mid-summer when I will give an update.

One interesting thing one notices about the Royal Stud is the pack of mares by Danehill Dancer. The Royal Stud has 5 in the paddocks; Set to Music, Memory (purchased from a Highclere syndicate), Medley (dam of Sea Shanty), Free Verse and Star Value (whose dam won the Prix de Diane). Shama is also by Danehill Dancer and could easily join them. There is even a 2yo filly called Motion Picture, who is out a another, now sold, Danehill Dancer mare. Now I have never heard of Danehill Dancer being touted as a broodmare sire so I’m surprised they’ve got so many of his daughters. Let’s hope he turns out to be a great broodmare sire.

Last year, of the two, I was more upbeat about Ballymacoll. This year I think The Queen may have the better year. A lot depends on Stoute, who trains for both these traditional owner-breeders, having a good year, which he hasn’t since 2010. It's about time he did.

 

A mighty 4/6 winner for Ballymacoll yesterday with Arab Spring. Even earlier than last year's first winner and a very early winner for Stoute.

For the other breeder Stoute has Shama entered at Lingfield on Thursday. Already 33-1 for the Oaks. I'll watch with interest.

 

Just listened to Timeform Radio, so have not seen the race. Their view was that it was not run to suit the colt, considering he will probably stay 14f+, and that he couldn't have done it any better. His next race will be key and I guess a listed race somewhere will be sought for him. Maybe the Aston Park Stakes at Newbury would be a nice step up for him. I can't help feeling that the Melbourne Cup in 2015 may be the target if all goes the right way.

 

mmmmm... seems I underestimated Shama

 

Fiorente has been retired after splitting a tendon. He may go to stud.

Enliven and Fiery Sunset turn out this Friday: a meeting The Queen likes to attend.

 

Festival Theatre runs in the 7:40 @ Kempton currently sharing favouritism with Anglo Irish from Gosden's which I have been told wins.

 

mwildcats haven't seen you for ages.
Must admit I can't understand this horse still being in the Derby and running in a 12f handicap at Kempton. All the issue of Scottish Stage have been a bit unwilling when the chips are down so if this horse is going to be any good I'd want to see him battling strongly tonight whether he wins or loses.

 

On the same day last year her Sign Manual pipped my old fave, the Mr Henderson trained, Lieutenant Miller in the last stride of the 2 mile handicap. Interestingly I see the latter was sold to Don McCain, last October, for 30,000 guineas. Seems comparatively cheap although to date Sign Manual hasn’t run for his new handler.

According to yesterday’s ‘Weekender’ the Charlton filly, Be My Gal, who opposes Fiery Sunset in the 5.15 is well above average.

 

Hi Cats. How are you?

 

Barney, well noted. I wouldn't expect Fiery Sunset to score first time out but she's got a lovely pedigree being by Galileo out of a mare from the El Gran Senor family. Both fillies have landed in the easier heat, as in the other division there's Casual Smile, who must win..... mustn't she?

 

Hi Bustino & Ron,

I am good Thankyou... Been busy moving from lovely Yorkshire to London so that's taken a fair bit of my time. Now the flat is back you will certainly see more of me.

Appreciate the welcome.

Regards,
Cats

 

I heard you were in town! You must come racing with us at some point. Windsor on a Monday night maybe?!?!

 

Sounds good to me Stick, keep me informed!

 

Festival Theatre gets the squiggle from me. That's 3 definite rogues out of 4 foals (Dumbarton and Scottish Vespers were the others) and I'm far from certain I'd trust the filly Northern Meeting either. Scottish Stage should be culled.

 

duplicate

 

With the season a few months old I thought I’d give an update on Ballymacoll and the Royal Stud. As I suggested they might, the Royal Stud is having the better time of it. The Queen had an early winner with Shama who led all the way to win a decent maiden at Lingfield. She has been mentioned often on the gallops but the comments suggest she’ll be given time and it may be the Autumn before we see her at her best. However she was given her chance in the Musidora and flopped badly. The Queen’s other Oaks possible Queen’s Prize ran a real stinker in the Lingfield Oaks Trial so it’s back to the drawing board with both of them.

Sea Shanty was another early winner for the stud and Hannon immediately laid out that the Royal Hunt Cup was this colt’s target, and that the secret to him may be to give him time between races (his form did tail off last season).

Bold Sniper reappeared at Newmarket and, after winning over 12f as a 3yo, started in a 9f Class 2 handicap. Moore did his famous ‘hold up’ job and the colt ran on to be third. It looks as if he’s retained ability and a nice 10f handicap should be achievable. Musical Comedy has run twice and kept up his enviable record of never being out of the first two. At some stage he will have to step up to Group 3.

The new trainer Haggas had his first winner for the Queen with Purple Spectrum and although he appears no world beater he should be able to win another small race. His younger brother Peacock won first time out and according to Hannon is Royal Ascot bound, with the Coventry being his likely target. Though close relative Free Agent won the Chesham a few years back I can’t remember the Queen having a contender in the Coventry. What is ironic is that the Queen’s clever advisers have a mare who has produced two winners for them this year yet have sold the mare! Peacock is by Paco Boy out of the Rainbow Quest mare Rainbow’s Edge (who is a half-sister to Free Agent, out of the Lingfield Oaks winner Film Script). They still have Film Script but no daughters to carry on the Starlet (Nassau Stakes winner) branch of the Amicable family. Other news is that Haggas has also been sent Prince’s Trust who was with Hannon.

On the 2yo front Kinematic looks capable of picking up a race as she ran well at Newmarket when she was 2nd to what was probably a useful Godolphin filly in Bitter Lake. Pack Together (another Paco Boy) was entered for the same race as Kinematic but withdrawn in favour of the other runner. She should be followed. Other news is that Touchline (an Exceed and Excel filly) has been showing promise on the gallops.

Dalmatia (a once raced 3yo)may also be worth following and is entered to run this week.

Outside of Arab Spring, Ballymacoll have been incredibly disappointing. Montone, Conveyor Belt and Love Tangle look as if they should be offloaded as soon as possible. Festival Theatre looks like the rest of his siblings to be a bit of a rogue and so it may be a good idea to offload him and his mare Scottish Stage as well. Montone has already been removed from the training ranks and Festival Theatre has been gelded as has Tercel. This leaves only one entire 3yo in their ownership and that is Song of Namibia, who is unraced and a Cape Cross brother to Arab Spring. He should be followed (as the family seems genuine) when he eventually hits the tracks. The other genuine family is that of Patakai, and his 3yo gelding brother Pas de Cheval should go on and win races. But really a disappointing lot of 3yos.

The 4yos are setting what pace there is, and Arab Spring has won all his three races this year. He looks promising and was entered for the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot, but after his most recent win at York Stoute stated he was still a big baby and is more likely to take in a handicap. I’m sure he’s a good colt. The other 4yo is Islington’s Dansili daughter Bohemian Dance who is trained in Florida and won a 8.5f allowance race on her debut out there. Ballymacoll have 5 daughters of Islington (ranging from Bohemian Dance and her full-sister Upper Street, to two Oasis Dream sisters, the eldest of which is a 2yo called Angel Vision, and finally to a Dubawi filly-foal) and it may be time to offload this wonderful racemare as well and leave it to a couple of her daughters to carry on the line. Maybe someone else will have more luck with her.

Ballymacoll badly need the 2yos to be useful this year but only one has been sighted on the gallops so far and that is Indelible Ink. He is already a gelding but is a half brother to Liber Nauticus. I still have a warm feeling for Christmas Hamper (a Dubawi son of Golan’s sister Gift Range), but it’s too early yet.

Finally after Ballymacoll’s flagbearer in Australia Fiorente was retired to stud I heard some amazing figures for his covering fee.

 

An update on Ballymacoll. With the exception of one horse it has been a disappointing year. That horse is of course Arab Spring, who has gone from a all-weather maiden victory in March to winning a Class 2 handicap with 9-10 at Royal Ascot 11 weeks later. Unbeaten this year he goes for the Princess of Wales Stakes in mid-July, a race his one-time stablemate Fiorente won. So after making great strides this year his next step is to Group 2 and he should make that one. The step after that is more difficult, and he does have an entry in the Irish Champion Stakes and is quietly mentioned in terms of the Arc. One thing you can be sure of is that he will be taken care of as Stoute obviously feels he's still got a lot of improvement in him.
Other than that it's all been a bit underwhelming and Conveyor Belt and Montone have already departed, while Love Tangle goes to the July Sales. So what is there to look forward to? Well I think Pas de Cheval will win and I also think Indelible Ink will win a race but not be of great account. An unraced filly worth looking out for is Long View who as a Galileo sister of Golan and Tartan Bearer could be the right sort to win a maiden and progress. The now gelded Tercel may also get his head in front but really the male 3yos look just about a wash out and all hope lies on the unraced brother of Arab Spring, Song of Namibia. But if he's any good no-one is shouting too much about it yet.
As regards 2yos it's probably best to wait until August.

(More on the Royal Stud soon).

 

The Royal Stud, and The Queen as an owner, have had a far better time. The only disappointment must be that they have only had 7 wins this year. The way the horses are running would give hope that they’ll win more in the coming months.

Star of the show must be Estimate with her fighting 2nd in the Gold Cup. It was a case of will she? won’t she? up to a week or so before Royal Ascot. She was being trained for the Sagaro Stakes but then had suspensory ligament problems that made Stoute say she was doubtful for Ascot. He couldn’t get her ready for the Henry II Stakes so she lined up at Ascot after nearly 300 days off the course. However it was fully reported that in the week before her race she smashed Hillstar in a gallop over a distance that should have suited him. Through the exploits of Taghrooda Estimate is an even more valuable commodity, as the Oaks winners’ grand-dam is a half-sister to Estimate’s dam. What is more Estimate is a complete outcross for Northern Dancer blood so she can spend her next 15 years being covered by sires from this line, including I’m sure some of the more speedy ones.

Other than that The Queen must be thankful to Hannon junior for producing 5 of those 7 wins. Sea Shanty takes pride of place with 2 good handicap wins and a Hunt Cup 4th place. He could still take another race. Musical Comedy has also done well, winning a listed race before finding the 7f at Ascot beyond him: a return to 6f and softer ground should suit. But the most interesting wins have been the two 2yos; both by Paco Boy, both have run just once and both have won well. In fact these 2 winners mean she has had as many 2yo winners this year as she has had in the previous 2 seasons (the stud have supported Paco Boy with 2 yearlings and hopefully 2 foals to look forward to). Peacock has already been mentioned and as his dam is a Rainbow Quest daughter of a Lingfield Oaks winner he should get further and I’d expect him to step up to 7f on his next outing. The filly Pack Together is out of a mare I always liked called New Assembly. She is by Machiavellian out of a granddaughter of Highclere’s dam Highlight and won 3 races from 9f to 12f. (Here I will have my perfunctory dig at Her Majesty’s advisers who actually sent New Assembly to the sales with this winner in utero but she was led out unsold at 48,000g: thankfully they also got another filly by Royal Applause, who is a 2yo next year: having now said that Pack Together will no doubt turn out to be a total flop). So again Pack Together should stay a bit further than 6f, but Hannon says she’s a really sharp Paco so she may go for a few more 6f runs. The Royal Stud have badly needed some more Feola (granddam of Highlight, so great granddam of Highclere) blood to remain in the stud and the fact that its speedy blood will be a big positive.

Stoute has had a slightly frustrating time with a few other seconds to go with that of Estimate. Top of the list is Bold Sniper who followed up his earlier 3rd with a 2nd at Royal Ascot. Hopefully they’ll find a big handicap for this consistent colt. Dalmatia (brought-in) came out and, unfancied, ran a decent 2nd on the all-weather. She is being entered at the moment and should be good enough to pick up a maiden. The two Oaks fillies came and went but they, Shama and Queen’s Prize, have both recently been mentioned on the gallops and should be followed with interest, if not money, at this stage.

Charlton has had an awful time with horses scoping badly and running poorly at times. Apparently he’s now over it so expect to see some action from him and his Royal inmates. His most interesting horses are Dexterous (Mastercraftsman half-sister to Bold Sniper) and the ‘brought-in’ Zamindar filly Sample: it is noticeable that having had another ‘brought-in’ Sea the Stars filly called Starboard Beam placed with him that she has either moved elsewhere or been injured. Of the older horses Sharp Lookout should win a race.

Bell has done little better without the excuses that Charlton has. His two well-bred fillies Good Hope and Silver Mirage have been a touch disappointing and most of the interest has centred on the unraced Exceed and Excel 2yo filly Touchline who has had plenty of mentions on the gallops. She is out of a Nayef half-sister to the Ribblesdale winner Phantom Gold called Trianon (you will not be surprised that Trianon was then sold out of the stud). Bell’s best runner has been the brought-in Galileo filly Fiery Sunset (from the family of El Gran Senor) who will win a race.

Balding seems to get the lesser sorts but always appears to do relatively well. The 2yo Kinematic has been placed twice and should pick up a small maiden or nursery handicap and may progress from there. Two 3yos are interesting and those are Enliven and especially Micras, who both may run this week (the latter is another Feola family filly).If they are going to ever win they should go close this week.

The new trainer is Haggas and he had a winner with Peacock’s older brother Purple Spectrum, but his follow up run at Chester was a shade moderate. He does have a useful 4yo gelding called Prince’s Trust who appeared progressive last year. He also has a well bred 2yo called Thames Pageant of whom I’ve heard nothing so far.

As regards the 2yo, to have had 3 run and all run well augurs well for this crop. As with Ballymacoll more on them in a month or so.