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Analysing the 2yos of 2019

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by Ron, Mar 26, 2020.

  1. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    I now have a database of horses in training and their Official ratings. Data obtained from the BHA. One problem is that it doesn't include any horses with no Official rating. I have; name, year of birth, sex, sire, dam, trainer, any official rating they have. Also the rating progression, given as 1 race ago, 2 races ago etc. If anyone wants any analysis done let me know
     
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    Last edited: Mar 26, 2020
  2. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    This is quite useful. I can analyse by how many runs the horses have had, by sire, trainer; and which, if any, changed trainers etc. Then I can look up on RP selected horses to see how they ran, (eg whether the race was a fast time, if the horse was slowly away, hindered at all, ran green, restrained, finished well etc). Even better if I can then find a recording of the race. Then look to see if the sire is noted for producing late maturers.
     
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    Last edited: Mar 26, 2020
  3. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    An example; I have created a (small) file of sires and preferred distance for their progeny and produced a list of colts (sired by these sires) that have been lightly raced at 2 (ie no more than 2 runs) showing their dam and the ratings given to these colts for both their runs; Only horses on the BHA Ratings Database included. Purely for this example I have selected a few sires that might produce a Derby winner

    upload_2020-3-27_0-1-50.png
     

    Attached Files:

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    Last edited: Mar 26, 2020
  4. Cyclonic

    Cyclonic Well Hung Member

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    Do most Derby winners run as 2 year olds Ron?
     
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  5. mallafets123

    mallafets123 Well-Known Member

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    I think there has only been 2 horses won the Derby without a 2-y-o run.
     
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  6. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    In 241 runnings there have been 4.
     
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  7. mallafets123

    mallafets123 Well-Known Member

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    The last being Commander In Chief a son of the might Dancing Brave?
     
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  8. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    As you said in another post somewhere Bustino, with the AW allowing 2yos to run right up to the end of the year it makes it even more unlikely
     
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  9. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Let me know if you want any more filtering done. I'm going to gradually add in manually the sires of the dams as I think that would be useful
     
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  10. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Have you got a list of handicap mark improvers from one run to another? What is the largest jump and what is the mean average?
     
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  11. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Like so
    upload_2020-3-27_11-45-46.png

    I could also add in the TF rating for the sires, dams and dam sires
     
    #11
  12. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    I think I could decipher the data to produce something if we could just refine the rquirement a bit (eg any particular age, sex, trainer but more specifically would you want those progressing with each race or those with the greatest progression from 1st to last race. Does no rating to a rating count as progression for this purpose (a lot of 2yos fit into that category), would you only want to include those that have had more than x runs?

    Have to shoot off now. Will check back later
     
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  13. Cyclonic

    Cyclonic Well Hung Member

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    Do you have any info on Workforce Ron. I noticed that stood in Japan for some time, but I've come across a Racing Post page that has him now standing at Knockhouse Stud in Ireland. His fee is a paltry E3,000. I don't know too much about UK racing, but I've always been a fan of the horse. Has he ever thrown anything decent?
     
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  14. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    It’d be interesting to see for a few different factors, take sires for instance -

    which sires have highest first rating
    Which has highest rating per month (e.g Early sires to look out for)
    Which has best progression from first to last rating
    Which sires improve by distance


    I think you could do a hell of a lot of interesting work with that sort of information if easily accessible and manageable
     
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  15. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Not a lot by the looks of it Cyc
    *https://www.racingpost.com/profile/horse/742579/workforce
     
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  16. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    which sires have highest first rating
    the BHA has the last 6 races so a bit restricted there but for 2yos should be OK as not many have more than 6 runs (well 147 have had 6 runs)
    Which has highest rating per month (e.g Early sires to look out for)
    * unfortunately the BHA database doesn't provide the dates of the races
    Which has best progression from first to last rating
    I could do best progression from up to 6 races ago and show the progression in between
    Which sires improve by distance
    * unfortunately the BHA database doesn't provide the dates of the races

    I would probably need to buy a database to provide these
     
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  17. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    For some reason we all forget Ruler of the World (2013)
     
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  18. mallafets123

    mallafets123 Well-Known Member

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    I actually knew there was an AOB one did it. When i did a search of his winners i must have missed that so i thought i was mistaken. i did check <doh>
     
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    Last edited by a moderator: Mar 27, 2020
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  19. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    I'm not sure what this BHA rating is since it doesn't seem to be tying up with the OR obtainable from th RP: Also some of them have a current rating that differs from the rating of the latest run - I'm guessing this may be the highest rating achieved or a revision as a result of the performance of others. No 2yo appears to have a current AW rating even though they have an "A" (assumed to mean AW) rating for some of their runs

    2yos there are:
    85 rated 100 or more
    108 rated 90-99
    275 rated 80-89
    487 rated 70-79
    449 rated 60-69
    584 rated below 60

    I have produced an analysis by amount of improvement since first run. At present it includes those with an improvement of at least 10 since their first rated run and those with a current rating exceeding 100 if their first run wasn't rated. That produces 15 pages (464 horses) so you might want to refine it a bit more than I have before I publish it
     
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  20. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    An example, having removed those with first race not rated and only included if improvement is greater than 20, I've squeezed it onto 1 page

    upload_2020-3-28_2-4-43.png
     
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