Arnold Palmer Invitational, Bay Hill & Lodge, Orlando

Welcome to the Arnold Palmer Invitational in the last lag of the 'Florida Sweep', the last one of the 3 Florida courses we have played recently. Originally a par 70, it has been extended to the now par 72, and sits at a long 7.419 yards made all the more difficult with the Florida breeze that will get up this weekend. The biggest change to this course from the added 2 shots is the approach shots, and the pin positioning. This course ranked 6th hardest in proximity to the hole, and 6th also in percentage terms for 1 putting, only 39% of first putts went in. This can be a hard course to gain any momentum in the birdie column, and proved it again last year with a course average of 1.8 putts per hole for the whole weekend. That equated to the the 3rd hardest for the par 72 courses that they play here...


So what do we look for. Well to be honest Tiger Woods, @ 3/1, is no value what so ever even though he is the returning Champ, he has won 7 times here form 16 starts. He may well be finding his happy place at the moment, but that is no price to be having in a field like this.

In the last 3 years since the change we have had many, many long shots make the top 10 and the money. Brain Davis T4th last year, was a 150/1 shot, this year a 175/1 shot...!!! In the 2011 event Martin Laird won at a massive 150/1 with Leishman, Toms also posting the same odds in the top 6. M ark Wilson finished T7th at 200/1 also. Justin Rose being the only shorty, at 18/1, finishing in the top 6. 2010 was no better when Big Easy, Ernie Els won, with a starting price of 50/1, the ones directly in behind Molinari, Na, Goosen and Curtis were all +100/1 shots at the start of the tournament...!!!

But there are a few pointers that make sense...

The first one i will point to is that this is Ian Poulter's local course now, and he finished in 3rd last year...
Ryan Moore is one of those Horses for Courses player here making the cut in the last three years with 2 top 20 finishes. Posted a T4th last year...
Bubba Watson finished T4th last year where he led the field in distance off the tee and ranked T5 in GIR. These are the 2 top stats you need around here. Plus with the Masters just around the corner he will be wanting to get this game in shape to try and retain the first Major of the year...
Jim Furyk has posted 2 top tens in the last two years and comes here with his game in good order. Led the field in proximity to hole at Copperhead last week en route to a season-best T7. Ranks 3rd on tour in fairways hit, 5th in proximity and 19th in adjusted scoring...
Chris Kirk is playing really well at the moment, 2nd place and T5th already this year. His stats are tailor made for here. Ranks 1st in Eagles made, 6th in Par Breakers, 8th in Strokes Gained Putting and a season high 4th in All Round Ranking sats...


I was going to pick Kevin Na for one of my picks but he has pulled out with a side strain. The only player in the field to feature in the top 10 over the last 3 years of this now par 72 course... So i have to change tact and im going with...

Bubba Watson @ 28/1...
Ian Poulter @ 35/1...
Bo Van Pelt @ 66/1...
Chris Kirk @ 100/1...

All done in the usual £2.50 e/w... PadPow pay 1/4 for top 6...

 

Leaderboard after the 1st round...

Leader - J. Rose @ -7

T21 - Chris Kirk........... -1
T40 - Ian Poulter........ E
T72 - Bubba Watson.... +2
T94 - Bo Van Pelt........ +4

Not the best of starts but my outsider is doing the best of em...

The top of the board looks interesting though...

1 - Justin Rose -7... started off at 18/1... now 5/2
2 - John Huh -5... 200/1... now 25/1
T3 - John Rollins -4... 125/1... now 40/1
T3 - Brad Fritsch -4... 300/1... now 66/1
T5 - Charley Hoffman -3... 250/1... now 66/1
T5 - Ryo Ishikawa -3... 250/1... now 80/1
T5 - Tiger Woods -3... 3/1... now 5/2

This event always seems to throw up the big, big outsiders more than any other event, and at the moment it seems to be living up to that promise...!!!

 

Leaderboard after the 2nd round...

Leader - Bill Haas + Justin Rose @ -9

T17 - Ian Poulter......... -3
T28 - Chris Kirk........... -1
T42 - Bubba Watson.... +1
CUT - Bo Van Pelt

Lost one to the cut, Bo, and i dont hold much hope for any of the others getting owt back either... I am already looking at next weeks tournament to find something of a return...

 

Leaderboard after the 3rd round...

Leader - Tiger Woods @ -11

T14 - Ian Poulter......... -5
T33 - Chris Kirk........... -1
T55 - Bubba Watson.... +1
CUT - Bo Van Pelt

Justin Rose shoots level par, Tigger shoots -6...Not a great days play by the 2nd round leader, in fact both the 2 front me, Bill Haas included, went round in poorly. Bill Haas shooting a +1 to drop him out to T5th... Ian Poulter now takes over for me in terms of getting any money back, being placed in a tie for 14th, at -5...

All to play for at the top, but who can catch Tiger winning back to backs in terms of tournaments, he won here last year, and in terms of consecutive weeks, he won last week...!!!

The Tiger is back...!!!