Betting on the All Weather Tracks

I've been sporadically working on a long draft thread around this general topic. Summarising, the thesis is that if you're going to bet seriously on artificial surfaces - and I do - then you need to throw out the traditional analytical tools like recent form and official ratings, and base a strategy much more tied into trainers' and owners' entry patterns; which track draw-biases are temporary and which are permanent, and (possibly most significant of all) which UK winter jockeys are intelligent enough to pick the right tactics for the right horse, bearing in mind that about 80% of AW beasts are usually not very talented, not very consistent, psychologically unpredictable, or all three. My incomplete Work In Progress suggests that the number (of qualifying jockeys) is actually shockingly small.

If I got round to completing the draft, would anyone want to read it ? I don't want to bore everyone, and it would be quite a long piece.

In the meantime, write this down: do not, at least for the foreseeable future, take Kempton, Lingfield or Wolverhampton form to Chelmsford.

 

Evening, Bluesky. I've been watching the rerun of this afternoon's events at Wolverhampton, and the first thing that springs to mind is that if you'd backed Full of Speed (surely on the shortlist for least appropriately-named horse) I think you'd be entitled to have a serious word with your jockey. I've said my piece about Queally before during the Frankel era, so I won't go over it again. The second thing is to reinforce the idea that taking form from amateur races - particularly when they've been won very easily - won't improve your bank balance.

That was a moderate race on a moderate day, and won't stand too much analysis, but I'd like to use this thread to put up the view that there seems to be a growing number of ill-judged rides from experienced jockeys in the fairly big group that sits just behind the elite set (Moore, SDS, Smullen, a couple of others). I'm not talking of considerate introductions for expensive maidens, or fairly gentle runs for unfancied animals seeking to get dropped a few pounds; I mean injudicious rides, on horses that were entitled to win their race, and whom the market suggests were fancied.

My working theory is that journeyman flat jockeys are finding it harder and harder to judge pace accurately. That may sound absurd, and I'm willing to be shot down, but my first guess is that their problems are largely due to the rising proportion of artificial-surface racing in the calendar. I'll keep it short (the idea will be developed at more length in a forthcoming piece on How To Make Money from AW Racing, due out on this site in the next couple of months) but I'm starting to think that horses adopt different stride-patterns and use different muscles to push themselves through sand/tapeta/poly than they do for turf. Add to that the facts that AW courses are smaller - so you're entering, negotiating, or exiting a bend much more often than at Newbury, Newmarket or York - and that the five AW courses themselves all have varying surfaces, and you get a situation where decent jockeys can make genuine mistakes. At its most basic, any quick-learning apprentice can be taught the clock-in-the-head stuff about doing two furlongs in 28 seconds on their own home gallops. Under race-riding conditions, with a multiplicity of surfaces, it's starting to look (to me) as if a number of jockeys are being presented with pace-problems that they can't solve. Any views ?

 

Good evening rainer, how is that piece of work going for you then? Glad to hear ya went ahead with it anyway, I'm sure it's kept you pretty busy

Adam Kirby is different class on the AW surfaces, doesn't over complicate matters and gives his mounts a good chance to win the race. Obviously it does backfire from time to time when he gets collared but at least he is trying to adopt positive tactics. Makes the field seem rather slow when he pulls it off too, I am suprised more jockey's have not adopted a similar approach at times.

 

Evening, STH. It's going OK, but the problem is keeping it down to a manageable - and readable - length: there's just so much to be said.

I won't spoil the surprise, but one of the major conclusions will be that you shouldn't have a serious AW bet unless you trust the jockey, particularly
over a trip. You need (imo) different criteria when it comes to assessing which jockeys ride bad horses well: as you say, Kirby is top banana at the moment, and I'd give high marks to George Baker and the much-abused Luke Morris - I know his whip-action wouldn't remind you of an Olympic fencer, but he regularly makes the right move at the right time that wins a rubbish race. Back to my dodgy laptop in my lonely attic......

 

Good evening Rainer, thanks for such a well considered response to my poor selections today. I actually felt my first selection received the worse of the rides today by the jockey committing the cardinal sin of making up ground around the outside mid-race, unless the pace is very slow you end up having nothing to finish with, which was of course the case today. Full of speed just wasn't good enough today in my view, but will win a race soon.

I can see you are seriously looking into this and I would be interested to see your findings with regard your project. It is very clear that the demands of a jockey on the all weather and on turf are completely different and I feel many ride both the same. Essentially on the all weather, especially at Lingfield or Wolverhampton you must ride a very determined start, as you will likely only be able to keep a position rather than improve it until the home straight, you simply cannot pop out and see how it works out, and you should never drop a horse out in anything over 8 runners. It's very simple ride a start to sit immediately behind the pace if possible, travel and use whatever is left when turning for home on the final bend. If you are drawn wide take the straight choice however, either start to get a frontline position and accept it if you have no finish, or drop in and hope for a strong pace and a bit of luck, but never ever travel wide throughout. This is less important at Kempton which in my view is by far the best track, whilst of course at Southwell you just break out and start pushing until the line.

Generally I feel jockeys are their own worst enemies by making something more complicated than it is, they and trainers half the time over think the job in hand. Ride a start, travel and ask as late as possible, if you win great if you don't you could have done no more. All this dropping him out (giving head start) and riding him to get the trip just over complicates the issue.

I really love the race riding part of the game and am a harsh critic and enthusiastic applauder of a ride, and I am really missing Ryan Moore and Richard Hughes at the moment as no one is exciting me. I love the strength Moore uses in making his mounts mind up and I loved the way Hughes looked so much a part of the horse, his balance sublime, and as much as I hate to say this Spencer rode a couple of crackers last week.

 

Good to hear rainer. Look forward to it

Morris is certainly all out in the saddle, is alway's very busy looking. I must admit I didn't like to be on one with him in the saddle at first but I now am happy enough as I find he does tend to throw the kitchen sink at one to win and he has won me over. I understand though that he isn't the easiest on the eye.

 

Glad to see you are pursuing this Rainer and look forward to your findings. Another thing to consider is that on some surfaces, the tighter bends make it more difficult to keep horses balanced; especially if it's not a particularly well balanced horse. A jockey who is not a very good horseman could easily assist the horse to become unbalanced round tight bends. Generally speaking it probably requires more balancing skills on the AW than it does on turf; mainly because there can be more movement in the surface. However, I will have to get more expert opinion from Amanda and will feed back anything that may be useful (she isn't well at present so may not see her for a few days).

 

This Timeform article on Chelmsford is interesting

 

When betting on the all weather, I generally use my weather rock. It's hanging from the clothes line out the back. If it's wet, I know it's raining and if it's swinging about, I know it's windy.

 

Thanks Cyc. Should have known . Have amended the title

 

Don't encourage this coarse colonial innuendo, Ron.

However, for students of the perverted and disgusting (all of you, I imagine) it does carry overtones of a music-hall song called Seaweed, performed by the great Fred Earle. You'll find the lyrics on Google. My late Uncle Ted (whom I may have mentioned from time to time) used to sing it when he was pissed, and quite often when he wasn't.

 

Just read the lyrics Rainer.