Bullish or Bulls**t?

Bullish is a word we often associate with Jockeys and Trainers. I have sometimes felt it is more often the case that this bullishness transpires as bulls**t by the time the relevant race has been run.

I thought I would start a thread to draw attention to cases where connections are confident and then see how it pans out for them come race time.

First in a series on perhaps only one but hopefully more is Albigna and jockey Shane Foley, who said before the Irish 1000 Guineas:-

THE FACT IS SHE’S VERY, VERY GOOD

In the end Albigna was a stone below her best in finishing 6th.

Sorry Shane, I have to accept your first answer.

 

There should have been a Family Fortunes wrong answer button beside Foley's statement but I'm buggered if I can get it to embed into the post.

 

You have to factor in a trainer is not going to be training a horse and not believe they are doing the best job possible for that horse to perform to a winning level. The trainer will believe in their own abilities to train, and as such the jockey will not go against what they are saying when riding for them.

Oddy's comment is also most applicable.

I read Shane's comments and he said prior to racing that Albigna was a real character and is likely to do anything if she's in a certain mood. He said she's a very talented horse but like most talented animals she is highly strung and can be hard to handle.

I think a huge factor in any sport/game is believing in your own ability, even if deep down you know you may not be the best or what not, you have to kid yourself a little at times maybe and I reckon a lot of that happens in the training ranks much the same as a boxer with no chance will believe he's going to knock out his superstar opponent.

 

These are highly strung animals on the whole , as oddy has eloquently put , they’re not machines and give different performances accordingly, ‘‘twas ever thus , very , very few perform to the same level every race , those are freaks that do .......

 

More pertinently, a lot of trainers come from a certain strata of society , where bullshit is the normal stock in trade , they’re taught things like entitlement, superiority and arrogance from a young age , unless those vices are leavened by humility you end up with the arrogant stock of tossers that either go into politics ( johnson and his chums are prime examples ) banking or training horses .
Those at the other end of the spectrum come from a different class , learnt the hard way, appreciate collective effort and won’t bluff and blunder about anything .
Loved the way clive brittan used to undermine the bullshitters with his big priced outsiders , time and again he’d catch the blue bloods out ........so in short , take no notice of hot air trainers .....after years of gambling you get to know who to ignore , the good ones let the results do the talking . I’ve lost count of all the poor trainers who have good horses but can’t get them to win .......
Many big stables , the trainer is just a manager of a large operation and rely on good staff / workers to do the donkey work , the assistants are often the real magicians ......

 

Especially true with fillies. That’s why I always lean towards a trainer with a proven record of handling the unpredictable distaff side. Have you seen John Gosden wife’s ffs? Meanwhile, one of Henry Cecil’s passions was growing roses, so he was obviously in touch with his feminine side. Aidan O’Brien is just an infinitely patient individual, which you need to be to deal with females, I have found.

 

And little Richard? I wonder who worse the trousers in that household?

 

Knowing that their charges are not machines, should trainers and jockeys not be exercising caution when assessing the chances of their horses in any given race?

You can never be 100% sure of anything in horse racing and all the more reason for not being overconfident.

I sometimes feel the media are guilty of twisting people's words in order to hype up a particular horse and there are plenty of times when a headline seems to suggest massive confidence in a runner but when reading the actual article it is nowhere near as clear cut as the headline would suggest.

Shane Foley did say Albigna could be quirky but her one bad run last year in the Moyglare came when she was in season and also on a day where the filly got very hot before the race. I think we might all be a bit quirky in the circumstances.

My own feeling after the Irish Guineas was that Albigna had run a stone below her official rating and I see that the Racing Post gave her 100 for that run. That is exactly a stone below her 114 OR. What is galling was that Peaceful has won the race with a RPR of 110, so Albigna would have won comfortably if repeating her best effort.

It is hard to imagine that temperament alone can cause a horse to run a stone below form and if that is a commonplace occurrence we are all in trouble. Surely any horse who runs in and out by a stone on any given day needs to have the Timeform squiggle?

Thanks for the replies. Interesting to hear other views.

 

Today at Ascot I saw a preview which contained the following snippet:-

Jubiloso, third in the Coronation Stakes here 12 months ago and the subject of favourable recent reports

Seemed fancied at 7/2 but (Family Fortunes wrong answer buzzer)

STONE LAST

 

"MOGUL is making his seasonal reappearance here and punters are lapping up the odds-on about Aidan O’Brien’s three-year-old. An extremely expensive purchase, as well as a brother to Japan who won this last year, it is easy to see why he is proving so popular. With very strong vibes coming out of his stable, it would be no surprise to see a special effort this afternoon. Watch out for a move in the Derby market should he put in a bold showing."

Bullish? Yes. Bulls**t? Hell yes!

 

Mogul looked as if he was going out for the Cheltenham bumper. May be fitter in 17 days but looked very bonny.

 

I think it was on ITV racing on Saturday, Lord Grimthorpe was interviewed and he put Jubiloso up. Words to the effect ' he won't be happy me saying this but Jubiloso is working well '. As soon as I saw it was Stoute/Moore combo, I dismissed that straight away.

 

I think it is vital to identify bullshit though, no matter what the true source. People are buying into this as gospel in some cases.

 

from Moores betfair column

I liked him when he won his Group 2 at Leopardstown last season and he then went on to finish a good fourth to Kameko in the Vertem Futurity at Newcastle. Obviously, he has his stamina to prove over this 1m4f but as a brother to Japan and Secret Gesture you would hope that wouldn't be an issue and, while he could well be sharper for the run - Aidan has said as much in recent interviews - he is a very talented colt who will hopefully develop into an Epsom hopeful after this.

But stablemate Arthur's Kingdom is a Group 1-placed juvenile who has a similar level of form, and you have unexposed colts like Mohican Heights and Papa Power, so this perhaps isn't as straightforward as the betting suggests.


strong vibes indeed

 

Won by the horse he doesn't mention.

 

They're all the bloody same, Oddy, not just the BBC. I will of course admit to being totally anti-Trump and his dogsbody White House administration, but CNN go too far sometimes. Fox News from the opposite end of the swamp? They are the goddamn end!

 

One time Derby contender Al Aasy strolled home by ten lengths at Newmarket today. There had been some speculation that the colt had a real chance of being a major player in the Classic and several had claimed William Haggas was bullish. The trainer had said coming into this season that the colt need two stones improvement to be a player at Epsom but I saw the horse in several lists of horses to follow.

Overall, I couldn't believe last time he ran that Francesca Cumani was talking about him being a prominent player in the Derby. He had miles to go from a 77 rating for his first run and in the end he never showed up in the Newmarket Stakes won by Mishriff. No mistakes today as the son of Sea The Stars put his opponents in their place. The trouble is that he was winning a Class 5 Novice race today from a horse rated 67 from his first effort. That meant Al Aasy had 20 lbs in hand on RPRs today. It was a desperate affair really but it probably won't stop some getting carried away with the ten length margin of success.

Al Aasy trousered just under three and a half grand for his owner today. You sometimes have to worry with William Haggas and expensive horses winning egg and spoon races. Not that Haggas is alone mind you but he just seems to have so many inmates who have their sights lowered rapidly. Not so much Black Type, as Brown Type for the CV.

Unbelievably Al Aasy was cut to 16/1 for The Derby with Bet 365 and is a sea of Blue on Oddschecker.


Cue The Last Leg Bulls**t button.