Tips / Bets Can we do it ? 23/24 edition

After what seems like an eternity of doom , gloom , negativity, despair, disappointment, boredom, anger, betrayal, ridicule, bemusement ,resignation etc etc under Dean Smith and Shaky.

Who now believes we can actually steer the ship away from the rocks and actually go up again this season?

It would be the bounciest of bounce back abilities since Crystal Palace and Dowie.

Obviously I'm getting way ahead of myself as Wagner has only been here a week but yesterday was spectacular and special for so many reasons.

I honestly believe we will finish top 6 and get promoted again this season.

A week ago I would have settled for survival.

 

I hate to say this, but I doubt it, even though I am overjoyed that the Smith era is finally over. Going up would need so many things to go right and the likely teams in the play-offs - Watford, Boro and WBA - will all be very tough opponents even if we get there. But at least I feel we have probably hit rock bottom and are on the way back up again.

A little sign of this is when I log onto this site. For a few months now, there have been many times when there are no new posts. Now when I log on, someone has nearly always posted something new.

Hope. Enjoying watching our team play. Caring so much that a victory makes us feel good all weekend while a defeat sinks our mood until the next game. We'd all forgotten what these things felt like.

 

That's a No then put it on the poll as all votes are made public and no changies

 

@Old Hill Canary

 

OK, if you insist. What is Old Hill Canary all about?

 

Yes we can do it. Whether we will or mot is a totally different question.

I would say we have a good chance of a play off plate. After that it's a lottery.

 

Would love a Wembly repeat against M'boro just to show them we have their number. No Jerome or Redmond this time, but much better all round. So, yes.

 

I have put down "no" because I think our odds are better than 1/4 now, but not by much.

A lot can change, but I put our rough chances as:

Autos - 2%
- For automatic promotion, we will need 92 points (I think it's going to be a high scoring one this season, but Burnley and Sheffield U cannot keep up quite the same form) - that means 53 points from our remaining 19 games - just under 2.8 points per game. That sort of form is not impossible (e.g. Man City managed to do even better in the first 19 games of their record breaking 17/18 season and the last 19 games of their 18/19 season, Liverpool managed it in their first 19 games of the 19/20), but it is pretty extraordinary. And I do not think we have the disparity in quality of squad vs the rest of the league that Liverpool/Man City had at those times. So our only realistic hope is that one of the top two collapses AND we have extraordinary form, but even then I think our best realistic form (and it would be incredible) is going to be 42-44 points - i.e. what we managed in the second halves of our most recent promotion seasons - and I think it is nigh on impossible that even in a disaster run either of the top two would fall below that, plus one or more of the others in the current top 10/11 could be there too.

Play-offs then promotion - 25%
- To get to the play-offs, you normally need about 75 points, 78 will almost guarantee them in any season. I think we should be targeting 77 points to be safe, though I think it will actually be a low scoring one - possibly as low as 72 points needed (that is the current form of Millwall, Luton, Blackburn and Middlesbrough). I would be disappointed if we do not manage 33 points from here (about 1.75 points per game), I definitely think 2 points per game is more than achievable for this squad and that will be enough for play-offs. Maybe I am overestimating/arrogant, but I feel out of the c.12 or so realistic contenders here, we must be the more likely ones. So I feel like we have a 3/4 chance or so of play-offs, still.
- Once in the play-offs, it seems like a 1/4 chance and I hear what Gozo is saying about tough opposition, but I think: (i) they will look at us as tough opposition; and (ii) the biggest thing in the play-offs is momentum. On point (ii) look at those who have been promoted in years gone by - it's more often than not the form team in the run up to the end of the season (e.g. us under Neil, Villa under Smith, Forest last season (in a very similar position to us now!) even going back years ago to Blackpool). So once there, I think our odds would actually be better than the nominal 1/4 because we would more likely have the wind in our sails - so I would say 1/3.
3/4 x 1/3 gives an overall chance of 25%

So just over a quarter chance for me. That's a bit higher than the betting odds (when you factor in their margin), which range in price from 18% (11/2) to 30% (10/3)

 

For me we have been horrible all season even when we have won , we just went on a 16 game run with 1 win and we are still 2 points off play offs.

On paper and cost wise we have the most expensive squad with pretty much every player a full International.

I believe the entire squad lost faith in Smithball and became disillusioned with his training and tactics.

Motivation and hunger paired with a style of play and togetherness are priceless and Wagner appears to have supercharger the team .

 

I am not sure I understand the 16 games/ 1 win? Excluding Preston match just been, I think we had three wins (Stoke, Rotherham and Swansea) in the previous 16 matches? Still bad.

But on point - our form for the first 12 matches of the season was 24 points, no reason to think we cannot match that or even better it as it wasn’t that good

 

The commentator Rivers mentioned it , including the Rovers loss in the cup.

Edit

We beat Rotherham Swansea and Stoke so either I misheard or Rivo ****ed up

 

I’ve seen it mentioned several times that we have the most expensive squad in the league. Can that be right? What about Watford, Burnley, Shef Utd, West Brom?

 

We have Tzolis & Rashica out on loan not sure if that £20m ish is included.
I'm guessing the market value of most of our players have bombed recently still 2nd.

I will be shocked if we get £3m for Cantwell down from £25m plus

 

Would it look like this?

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I voted no, partly because I don't really want use promoted this season. I'd much rather see us consolidate our squad, playing style and motivation with a view to a push next season. The thought of another season circling the plughole doesn't really fill me with much excitement TBH.

 

I’ve got sympathy for this, I have, but for me it’s illogical - the odds are very high that whenever we get promoted, any time, no matter the backstory, we will struggle to survive. I don’t see next season (on the relatively slim chance we get promoted) being any different.

In fact, given the relative squad strength, which will only deteriorate as we run out of parachute payments and best players get sold, next season remains a slightly more likely season for us to survive. In any circumstances, it will be a battle vs the plug hole though.

 

I suppose I just want to enjoy a season of stability, effort, cohesion and entertaining football. Would be good for team and supporters alike