Cheltenham 2018: Antepost Thread

I hope he stays fit and healthy and we get to see him in a good light for a long period of time. 3 months time we should see him in a maiden.

 

Hi Oddy, I saw a brief interview with King (copied the link below) regarding Yanworth - unlikely he goes back to 2m, JLT more likely.



Couldn't agree with you more regarding Finians Oscar as he will take some stopping wherever he goes - would love to see him in the Arkle though, 20/1 is huge!!

Don't forget to get a few quid on Red Jack for the Supreme either mate - FO, RJ, The Worlds End (Stayers) and Our Duke (GC) would be massive results for my antepost portfolio

The passing of poor Neon Wolf was a blow and such a shame we didn't see him over fences.

The jumps are coming boys!!

 

Why is Cause of Causes 9-1 for the cross country?!

 

Massive Don!!

 

Any ideas yet what they are going to do with Fayonagh?

 

Nothing announced on social media as of yet Don.

She was impressive last season and using Debuchet to measure the form she would have a similar chance in the Supreme to Red Jack.

I imagine she will go Mares Novice tbh.

 

Only AP bet of the festival so far!!

 

I just don't understand why 365 have stuck their necks out leaving him at 9s while he's a lot shorter everywhere else.
I personally wouldn't lay him at 3s and if he gets there will surely be evens at best.

Fayonagh 6-1 for that race... if she went there she would be 1-6 on!!

 

Couple of schoolboy errors above people re Yanworth. Where Alan King says he will go has absolutely no relivance whatsoever. The final decision will be made by his owner and that old boy’s management. This time last year Alan King favoured going down the ‘World Hurdle’ route but following Unowhatimeanharry emerging as a serious candidate for the Stayers Crown Yanworth was redirected to the 2 mile division. In hindsight, of course, this was something of a mistake as McManus ended up having the 1-2 in the Champion Hurdle (with other horses) and Unowhatimeanharry could only manage 3rd (when odds-on) in the ‘World Hurdle’. Stepped up to 24 furlongs at Aintree Yanworth then won a Grade 1.

Where they sent him this year who knows but the McManus brigade will be the ones who decide. And, of course, the ‘joker’ element is if he proves exceptional over fences he could even, at Cheltenham, be put in a non-novice Championship event. Like the plan with Thistlecrack last year in fact.

 

I'm not too concerned where Yanworth goes SBC as I rate Finians Oscar, Willoughby Court, Petit Mouchoir, Ballyandy, Monalee and Death Duty as far more exciting novices.

 

Vowed I wasn't going to do it this year, but find myself already chipping away with a few ante posts for Cheltenham. Not going to invest anywhere near as much as last year (where I ended up with 3/4 horses covered in each race but only just came out with a profit), but I love the 'to win any race' markets that are out there now and think there's value to be had.

To Win Any Race At Cheltenham 2018

SAMCRO - 14/1 - Potential for this horse there for everyone to see. Seems to have a huge engine so reckon he could end up in the Neptune or Albert Bartlett. Got the 14s about a week ago but think he's 10s now with Paddy and shorter elsewhere.

BLOW BY BLOW - 14/1 - Got to have this horse covered wherever he goes. Form is absolutely rock solid, having beaten Death Duty and Bacardys, and thought the 14s was fair that he still retains all that talent despite a few niggles last year.

FINIAN'S OSCAR - 7/1 - Could end up in the Arkle I think, so was tempted by the 20s on offer for that race. Rather than having the stress of wondering where he'll be targeted I've taken the 7s any race and this constitutes my biggest investment. I just think he'll make a great chaser, and there are still noises coming from Tizzard that he could be the best he's ever trained.

I've also added the following three for specific races:

RED JACK - 25/1- Supreme Novices - I have heeded the advice from many on this site for this one. Does seem overpriced at 25s, and happy we'd be sitting on a great ticket if he makes it fit and healthy to this race.

MIN - 10/1 - Champion Chase - The only Mullins horse I've added so far as I think it's worth a dabble at 10s that this is the race he'll end up contesting. Ricci's confidence in this one ahead of a rematch with Altior was compelling, even for him. This is where I'd tentatively place Min at the moment, with Douvan likely to be stepped up in trip. There are reports that he's come on a lot over the summer, and though I'm sure the same can be said for Altior, I just think Min at 10s is the value at the moment. His jumping could pressure Altior over 2 miles, and Altior did show some chinks in his armour in the Arkle last year. If Great Field is aimed at this race (you could definitely see Mullins running two in this against Altior) then I'd probably have a little cover on him. Collateral form with Ordinary World puts him close to both Min and Altior, and he raced like a lunatic in most of his races last year. He gave the impression that he has a serious engine, and if his querks can be ironed out then there may be enough improvement for him to be Mullins' main contender here.

WILLOUGHBY COURT - JLT - 14/1 - Very little not to like about this horse wherever he goes at next year's festival. Read an interview with Pauling yesterday where he said he's come on plenty, that he'll improve for chasing, and that he doesn't think he needs further than 2 and a half at this stage in his development. 'Very happy if he ends up in the JLT' was his quote, and I can't imagine they'll risk him in the gruelling RSA this time around. Yanworth 8/1 for the JLT, Willoughby Court 14s. Would have those two the other way round.

I can't see much other value out there at the moment and think I may have exhausted everything I'd want covered in the any race market. Those prices will only shorten from hereon. Will only add more when getting info about specific race targets, and as we see how most of the main protagonists have summered.

 

Oh no! Old boy Tizzard’s not at it again is he?!? Trying to convince the world that he determines where Thistlecrack will run!

My regular readers will know that the run up to the 2016 ‘King George VI Chase’ was, in my opinion, one of the biggest farces that I’ve ever seen in racing (in fact in recent terms 2nd only to McCoy’s retirement day). He spent yonks trying to convince everyone he was going to decide if Thistlecrack ran in the King George, or the novice equivalent, when he wasn’t at any time ever going to make the decision himself – the owners were and did. Why he behaves in this manner I’ve really no idea - contrast him to Mr Henderson's quote prior to last years Cheltenham Festival when asked which race one of his horses would run in. 'I've no idea', the great man snorted, 'But the owner will tell me'.

Old boy Tizzard have you cleared these plans with the owners – if not they are meaningless.

 

I doubt he could convince anyone that he was deciding, over Alan Potts, where one of the latter’s was going to run hence the straightforward response. Wish he’d adopt a similar strategy re Thistlecrack.

 

Some spot on analysis there

 

Really hope they go Arkle with Finians Oscar.

Novice chase division is hot - picture this...

FO, Ballyandy and Petit Mouchoir - Arkle

WC, Footpad and Yanworth - JLT

Death Duty, Monalee and Bacardys - RSA

If they turn up like that... wow!!

 

That 20/1 for FO for the Arkle looks good and that would be my race for him. Always a strongly run affair I think he'd suit the trip at Cheltenham, but just a nagging feeling they'll go JLT with him. They see him as a future Gold Cup horse so depends on how quickly they want to step him up.

The RSA is one to wait and see how these novices are looking I think early in the season. Champagne Classic would be my stab in the dark at this stage, not sure if he's committed to going over fences yet but if so just love his profile for this race