Cheltenham 2019 Ante Post Thread

6/1 possibly has a position for future trading, if she wins over Christmas and we get a definitive answer on Samcro’s ability in the fighting fifth, she will be much shorter.

However with her being a mare and the Mullins way of working I suspect she won’t go as strong in the market as she might. People are certainly swayed by the fact he doesn’t give clear messages to the public.

I’d say the price is too short given the above, I’d want 9s or 10s at the minute.

 

I don’t think it’s a market for taking on, although looking at the likely field there will be plenty of rags in it. Something like Summerville Boy each way would be my call at the minute, but it’s not an antepost market for me to be involved in.

 

Bloody academics

 

I think it says everything about the strength in depth amongst the current brigade of championship class 2 mile hurdlers when the joint fifth favourite in some books has never ran in ‘open’ hurdling company, hasn’t ran over hurdles since March ’16 and has had his last 8 runs over the big ‘uns!

It all comes back to the fact that really decent horses aren’t, in the main, being transferred from the Flat to the NH sphere anymore. Instead they are being steered towards the all-weather (because of the increase in prizemoney) or sold for absolutely bundles to, continue their careers, in Australia, the US, the Far East or the Middle East.

Buveur D'air for me but I wouldn’t in a million years want to get involved at prices in the 2/1 – 5/2 range.

 

What about "We have a dream" turning in to a genuine champion hurdle contender? I wouldn't write him off yet...Buveur D'Air could be even better this year however following his wind op.

 

With regards to Lalor I would agree if he keeps winning he won't drift and my previous post was poorly worded. The point I meant to make was that as he's not trained by Nichols, Hendo or Mullins his price won't be ridiculous nearer the time. Now he's around 7/1 I'd rather wait until nearer the time or non runner no bet and get 3/1 or a bit better with no risk. With hindsight I should have backed him on Sunday morning for the arkle.

 

Annie Power is only one horse, most of them don't make it beyond the Mares races into Champion class.

Even Annie Power's Champion Hurdle win was only rated 162 on RPR's and she would not have won either of Buveur D'air's renewal's with that performance. She was favourite in a weak year and it is risky to assume a different horse can copy Annie Power step for step anyway.

Annie Power was 8YO when landing the Champion Hurdle but Laurina will be 6YO and much less experienced if she does go for the race. While it is true that she will probably contract in price, that fact does not actually guarantee that she will improve to the level of an average winner of the Champion and she has only 4 months to get to the required standard.

6YO horses have won the Champion Hurdle but generally they have had more experience than Laurina, and in more competitive company.

Each to their own but she's shied away from good (good/soft) at Ascot and it's a box unticked going into December. Samcro could blot his copybook next time we see him but he could also enhance his own claims for the race. I'll stay with the two time been/done/Tshirt horse.

 

Envoi Allen has been a non runner twice in the last month and it seems he is going to run on Sunday at the Fairyhouse bumper. Yet 20/1 for Ballymore Hurdle.

 

Well Buveur D'air is Evens in general now and could go shorter.

That is the worst thing about not wanting to be with favourites at 5/2 and then they go much shorter. You have more or less ruled out backing them at all and are faced with either not betting, or end end up backing one you don't really think can win but is a bigger price.

I think that was a personal best show from Buveur D'air today and he is the only hurdler around who is real 170+ class.

Barring injury, deserved History surely awaits this underrated horse.

 

Buveur D'air hosed up in last seasons Fighting Fifth and come March won the Champion Hurdle by what? A neck. He is as short as he is because frankly the current crop of 2 mile championship horses isnt an inspiring bunch. This is why everyone is looking for the horse that is going to improve this season and take his crown.
Regardless of anything else I personally can happily watch the race next March having not taken 5/2 about a horse that may go off at odds on. The race is four months away and many of the leading will not even get there. Taking 5/2 about a horse for a race at the Festival in Nov/Dec doesnt strike me as a good long term fiscal policy.

 

Rare to see Hugh Taylor put one up this early in the season
http://www.attheraces.com/tips/atr-tipsters/hugh-taylor

 

Yep, as I said, if you don't take the early odds, you are more or less forced to leave the race alone. If people are happy to watch the race without a bet that's great but I like to have the edge of excitement that a wager gives.

There may be people on Champion Hurdle day who would like the idea of being able to back Buveur D'air at 7/2 but if not that's fine.

As to the risks involved the only danger I see is injury. He didn't win by far last year but he didn't seem at his best that day and I still got paid at 5/1 anyway. They gave him a wind op so presumably felt him capable of better. He demolished the horse who was second favourite for the Champion Hurdle going into the Fighting Fifth and you can't ask for much more than that. Buveur D'air was cantering all ovr Samcro and despite a mistake at the last he came readily clear.

Value is different to different people. I felt Buveur D'air was strong value at 5/2 but if others think Laurina is better value at 4/1 then good luck to them.

I would rather take 5/2 on a race in the future, in the expectation that it might be 1/2 on the day, than back a horse at 5/2 on the day, knowing that 5/2 means that it is odds-on that it won't win.

Most of Cheltenham is a minefield but Buveur D'air looked the bet of the meeting to me at 7/2 early.

 

Kalashnikov faces just five rivals at Plumpton tomorrow and I doubt we will learn much about him as a Chaser in the comany he is in at a track where future champions seldom seem to tread.

I would like to see him mixing it in better company sooner rather than later because he will learn little against inferior opposition.

Lalor is averaging about 9/2 for the Arkle across the boards and any weakness exposed in Kalashnikov could see those odds contract further.

Interesting race tomorrow purely from the aspect of seeing how Kalashnikov jumps and if he can concede 11 lbs to the unexposed Nicholls runner.

At 1/4 Fav Kalashnikov is expected to face no problems but it's a race where there is unlikely to be a big upside in the aftermath of a win but potential disaster if it doesn't go smoothly.

 

@RacingPost

Malone Road could miss the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham with a knee injury according to Gordon Elliott.

 

I would expect Mullins to start upping the ante over the next couple of weeks.Looking forward to seeing Blackbow in partucular.

 

He has also stated that Envoi Allen will be going hurdling!

 

a 60 grand bonus was one incentive , he also won't be the first cheltenham winner to have run at plumpton , the track does at least go left handed with an uphill finish