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Cheltenham 2020 Ante Post Thread

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by Pilgrim, Nov 13, 2019.

  1. Pilgrim

    Pilgrim Well-Known Member

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    After thousands of requests ...
     
    #1
  2. dylanthomas

    dylanthomas Active Member

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    Champion Chase - Chacun Pour Soi
    RSA - Champ
    Neptune - Envoi Allen
    World Hurdle - Paisley Park
    Ryanair - Defi Du Seuil

    Thats my bankers so far. I also think Clan Des Obeaux wins the King George. I was impressed with his second to RTR who was primed to the minute for that race and is a top class horse in his own right. CDO will improve for the run, been there and done it last year and with Kemboy suspended and question marks over Altior it looks a solid eachway bet.
     
    #2
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  3. Pilgrim

    Pilgrim Well-Known Member

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    So far:

    Ballymore Hurdle: Dlauro 25/1 e/w

    Champion Bumper: Hamundarson 33/1 e/w

    Triumph Hurdle: Gin On Lime 25/1 e/w

    Gold Cup: Tout Est Permis 40/1 e/w (yes, I know I know, it’s “for sentimental reasons”)
     
    #3
  4. CaptainPops

    CaptainPops Well-Known Member

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    Nice one Pilgrim for starting this post.. I do enjoy a good giggle and the ante post thread usually provides it as so many of you chuck away your hard earned before the festival even starts. I would say 70% of the ante post bets are duds that are posted on here. Good luck with it but not for me.

    Dylan I am with you re Clan Des Obeaux and see him winning the race again as long as it doesn't come up too soft. He definitely caught my eye in that down royal race and looked really well..
     
    #4
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  5. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    It doesn't seem worthwhile going E/W on Frodon. If he doesn't turn up you are doubling your loss. Far better to split the stake as win/win Betfair and Gold Cup. Even if Frodon does run in the Gold Cup it seems unlikely to me that, if he doesn't win it, he would be likely to place. The distance of the Gold Cup has always been one of the biggest negatives and if he is going to be beaten I suspect it will be pretty comprehensively on the day.

    Frodon was actually the highlight of my Cheltenham last season, when I took an early view that he would not run in the Gold Cup and backed him for the Ryanair at 16/1. 9/2 on the day, he was game in winning it and it seems a bit odd that he is as big as 14/1 to win it again. I don't think the Betfair is the right race for Frodon. Bristol De Mai pretty much owns the race and will likely set out to run his opponents into the ground from the start. That will make life tough for Frodon and Altior and I doubt the Betfair is the right race for the 2 mile champ either, I feel it would be suicidal running Altior if the ground is at all testing.

    For me the Betfair rests between Bristol De Mai and Lostintranslation. Lostintranslation needs more and at 2/1 he isn't making nuch appeal when the "Been threre, done it, bought the T-Shirt" horse is only quarter of a point shorter in the betting. The Tizzard horse is very unexposed at the 3 miles plus trip though. He seemed ready for a step up in distance when losing out to Defi Du Seuil twice and duly obliged when upstetting Topofthegame in the Mildmay. Lostintranslation seemed near his best in his return to action this season and given that it was back in distance to 20F and probably short of what is likely to be his best distance this season. Lostintranslation looks a raw sort who still has some filling out to do and he has scope but he will be facing a horse in Bristol De Mai who seems to be a different animal at Haydock than anywhere else and he can sustain a strong pace that wears opponents down, most noticeably when crushing Cue Card in a devastating show of how to grind other horses into submission.

    I would be loathe to oppose Bristol De Mai in the Betfair on soft ground and foresee problems for some of the entries.

    If Frodon were my horse I would skip the Betfair unless it cuts up quite badly and the ground is decent. 14/1 for the Ryanair appeals to me as the best bet ante-post for the prolific winner.
     
    #5
  6. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    My bets so far are:-

    Champion Hurdle Klassical Dream 10/1

    Ballymore Hurdle Andy Dufrense 25/1

    RSA Chase Battleoverdoyen 20/1

    I felt Klassical Dream put in a statement performance in last season's Supreme Novices and it would be criminal not to take him to the Champion Hurdle when the division is crying out for a new Champion. He has been compared by Mullins to his previous top notchers and I reckoned 10/1 was a price that would evaporate before long.

    Andy Dufresne went into plenty of notebooks and was unlikely to ever represent any value along his path to Cheltenham and for that reason the only option for me was to take a chance on which race of the Festival Andy Dufresne would end up contesting. I reasoned that the Ballymore might be that target and at 25/1 he hopefully provides an interest throughout the season and if he lines up in the Ballymore I can dream that he might go and win it.

    I did Elliot's Battleoverdoyen for the Ballymore last season and was confident going into the race but he never travelled a yard that day, clearly beaten very early on and pulled up. That was a puzzling effort and I have read an article that states Battleoverdoyen is not to be trusted and poor value for the Cheltenham but an unbeaten previously horse is worth forgiving once and at 20/1 for the RSA I decided to take the chance that he can fulfil the earlier promise. O'Leary stated that Samcro and Battleoverdoyen will be kept apart at this stage and further elaborated that Battleoverdoyen requires 3 miles. I noticed that Battleoverdoyen wore a tongue tie on his chase debut and he jumped well that day, re-asserting after the pack had closed up and he went on to win by eight lengths. He clocked a Topspeed figure of 105 and that compared to a desperate figure of just 40 for Samcro in winning an egg and spoon race.

    I have been looking at the Arkle Chase but not really seen anything making strong appeal at this stage. The handicap races at the festival are a no-go area in general and suicidal ante-post in my book.

    Good luck to anyone playing early. It is a very tricky way to play the game but I would rather risk a few quid at decent odds than wait for the day and face paltry prices on "Bankers"
     
    #6
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  7. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    world class price aftertiming
     
    #7
  8. Ste D

    Ste D Well-Known Member

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    Wumming again per usual
     
    #8
  9. Pilgrim

    Pilgrim Well-Known Member

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  10. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    If anyone is world class it is yourself. Sadly it is in the art of writing excellent previews, only flawed by the fact that they are posted after the races in question have been run.

    If you check the threads from the 15th of March you will see that I wrote a post which contained the following:-

    "Klassical Dream in the Supreme Novices was the one horse I felt laid down a serious marker for the future and I backed him for next year's Champion Hurdle at 10/1. I feel he'll be hard to beat wherever he goes next and his odds can only contract I feel. Surely 10/1 for him was a better bet than Laurina ever was. I make him a 160 hurdler after that Supreme run and hopefully he can build on that. For me he was much more impressive than Samcro was last season at Cheltenham, yet Samcro seemed to be seen as the second coming."

    I have never claimed to be anything on this forum. It is other inflated egotists who feel the need to point out what good judges they are and what titles they have won as poster of the year. It is the same egotists who refer to other forum members as "Non entities" and who continually tries to devalue their input. It is my belief that people like you drive potential posters away from a forum.

    This is a thread for ante-post bets at Cheltenham. Tough titty for you that you didn't take 10/1 on Klassical Dream when I did. Give people some credit for seeing a potential value price. My advice would be to stick up your own value bets or STFU and leave other people to follow the spirit of the thread without feeling that some arsehole is going to come on and devalue their input.
     
    #10
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  11. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    I wouldnt take 20/1 Klassical Dream, one paced boat who has about 10 pounds to find with Buveur Dair, surely one of the worst priced ante post favs of the meeting.

    Beating Thomas Darby and Felix Desjy, all out to beat Aramon a head on gd ground and 7/2 fav to beat a superstar 2 miler like BVD after his mudlark win in the Supreme against 140 horses <laugh>

    Hyped up trash, even if he wins those egg and spoon early season races that Apple Jades usually wins
     
    #11
  12. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    lots of voices on twitter are putting up Saldier for the CH. views on that?
     
    #12
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  13. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Couldnt have him with his only Cheltenham form being tailed off in the Triumph, obviously the talk is based on his run against Espoir Dallen when he fell upsides at the last but could have been left standing after the last for all we know. Espoir Dallen was having his first run and safe to say he had improved plenty by the time he got to Cheltenham, Saldier has a stone to find imo and I dont think he has a prayer of winning a Champion Hurdle.

    The fact that the likes of Fusil Raffles, Pentland Hills and Saldier are the nearest names in the betting, 6/1 Buveur Dair is astonishing value, if thats the level of opposition hell be starting closer to evens than 6/1. The juveniles have a mountain to climb with Klassical Dream and he has a mountain to climb with Buveur Dair.
     
    #13
    Last edited: Nov 15, 2019
  14. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    You could set your clock by My Tent or Yours at Cheltenham, never out of the first 2 in umpteen championship events, the only 2 horses who ever beat him easily there in G1s were Annie Power and Buveur Dair, 2 superstars.

    The year BVD won his first, people knocked the form as MTOY was 10 but after being thrashed 4 and 5L by BVD at Cheltenham and Aintree, My Tent ran a close 2nd in the Irish Champion Hurdle, showing he was well up to 160 at the time, Petit Mouchoir had beaten NIcholls Canyon and Footpad in 2m G1s coming into it and was well beaten in 3rd, with decent horses like Footpad, The New One, Yanworth, Sceaux Royal and Wicklow Brave never involved, that was a strong Champion Hurdle and he ran to 170 that day imo.

    Again he was knocked a year later for only winning by a head in heavy ground from Melon with Mick Jazz 3rd, obviously a poor champion Hurdle, he wasnt at his best and that ground is an equalizer but he still won, he didnt run again that season and had wind surgery.

    Comes back last season up against the biggest hype horse in Ireland for many a year and he cantered all over him and beat him 8L, got beat a short head at Kempton, won his prep race then unseated in the main event. Looked to be travelling best at Aintree in very soft ground before Melon fell in front of him at the 3rd last and then got outstayed by Supasundae in a test of stamina. Turned that form round easily back at 2 miles on decent ground when he completely outclassed his opposition in the Irish Champion Hurdle.

    17 wins from 23 runs, 8 G1s, never been unplaced except when falling at Cheltenham last season, and you can bet your life hed have been no worse than 2nd if completing that day.

    He is right up there with Hurricane Fly and imo hes the best 2 miler since Istabraq, so good luck if you are backing a novice or juvenile to be better than him. I said he would win 3 Champion Hurdles before he won his first, and what a great chance he has of doing it this season, hes out of a mare called History and he will go down as a great Champion Hurdler.
     
    #14
  15. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Saldier was reckoned to be travelling better than Espoir D'Allen in the Grade 3 Fishery Lane last November. He had been favourite for the race won by the ill fated Champion Hurdler but it can be dangerous to assume that another horse will auctomatically show the same improvement that another one did going forward. Espoir D'Allen was rated 147 going into that Fishery Lane race but improved throughout the season to end on 170 and in addition to there being no guarantee that Saldier would do the same the Champion Hurdle looks a bit dodgy with so many underperformers and Buveur D'air eating the turf like a man, unlike his hubris filled cheerleaders who don't do humble pie but do love waffle.

    We will get a chance to see Saldier tomorrow in the Morgiana, when he meets Klassical Dream. With the handicapper putting Saldier up 4 lbs to 156 for falling in that Fishery Lane race, he is only 4lbs behind Klassical Dream on the official ratings now. However their fates were very different last season, with Klassical Dream going 4/4 for Willie Mullins after being gelded when joining him from France and he improved from 125 to 160 on RPRs along the way. In comparison Saldier did not race again last season and will line up now after a 371 day absence.

    Saldier clearly is still unexposed and Mullins must feel he is ready to compete if starting him in the Morgiana. It has to be remembered though that Klassical Dream was only having his second start when going straight into Group 1 company when narrowly beating Aramon. Aramon is a decent horse on good ground and had previously romped home in the Grade One Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown. People trying to crab Klassical Dream through Aramon are surely forgetting that when the horses next met, Klassical Dream was 11 and a half lengths the superior horse. It would be a brave man to back Aramon to beat Klassical Dream, even on Good ground but if it were yielding at Cheltenham on day 1 for the Champion Hurdle you could name your own price on Aramon.

    It is soft at Punchestown tomorrow, so there will be no excuse for Klassical Dream. His Champion Hurdle hopes may end right there but he is 4/7 Fav and it will be disappointing if he can't win it. A win for Saldier would see his odds tumble right down but he has a little bit to prove overall, especially after a lay off.

    I had to laugh at a Cheltenham preview I saw for the Champion Hurdle today. The author selected Klassical Dream as the One To Beat, Buveur D'air as The Danger and Saldier as The Dark Horse. Clear Fav, Clear Second Fav and 4th Fav on some lists. Who is paying these people?

    You can see the thinking behind backing Saldier with Klassical Dream so short now and Jumping's Frankel at 6/1 shows that some punters are less convinced of Buveur D'air's Superstar status. Buveur D'air is 2/5 Fav for the Fighting Fifth but I am dubious as to whether he has a 170 run in him now. Age is catching up and his 173 effort from Samcro last season took some serious knocks afterwards and looks overrated by some way to my eyes.

    We will see in time but I remain objective regarding the contenders, rather than making a childish rant calling horses names. A good win for Klassical Dream will see him shorten by a fair bit I would imagine but if he is beaten I have only potentially have lost a smaller stake at 10/1, than I would if I waded in at 4/7 for the Morgiana and minimising losses is a key factor in this game.
     
    #15
  16. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    much you got on at 10s? 2 quid?

    ill pay you out myself if Buveur Dair wins
     
    #16
  17. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Unsurprisingly Klassical Dream turned over in open company, Petit Mouchoir tells you all you need to know about the level of these horses, they are not in the class as a superstar like BVD.

    As I said, theyd be as well going the arkle route with Klassical Dream as he doesn't have the finishing speed for a Champion Hurdle.

    Hope everyone took the 6s Buveur Dair, astonishing value. The 4s is still good as he will likely end up evens on the day, will be 9/4 after Newcastle.
     
    #17
  18. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Good start from Midnight Run, hes my Albert Bartlett horse 25s

    please log in to view this image
     
    #18
  19. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    The Champion Hurdle is a long way off. Klassical Dream will not be cherry ripe until the big one. Obviously would have liked to see a bit more but there is no point in peaking on your first start of the season.

    Willie Mullins stated that his horse flew into the first hurdle and was too keen afterwards. He was a bit keen on occasion last year and Mullins believes Kassical Dream will improve from yesterday's race.

    If anything Saldier looks poor value now at 6/1. He seemed outpaced before staying on and with Klassical Dream seeming to tire late on it didn't look strong enough form in staying on to best a one paced looking Petit Mouchoir. Klassical Dream will need to improve from this effort but he did so with each race last season, so plenty of time to do better yet.

    Battleoverdoyen was out today and won by five lengths in what some described as a dour staying performance. It wasn't sparkling but he jumped fairly well and three fences were omitted on two circuits, making jumping less of a factor. The trainer expressed that Battleoverdoyen needs 3 miles and the intention is to take him over that trip around Christmas. Generally 10/1 in most places for the RSA now, he still has a bit to prove but if he gets to Cheltenham and the RSA it will be job done from an ante-post perspective.

    It was revealed today that Andy Dufresne will have his next start over 2 and a half miles at Navan. I am hoping that this means that the Ballymore will be his target at the festival. The only value I could see with the well hyped horse was in taking a chance on which race he would contest and if he runs in the Ballymore it will be satisfactory.

    I have had a bet on the Cheltenham Bumper on Ferny Hollow. He won a point to point that wasn't worth a hill of beans but reports from that 15 length win stated that the horse did all his best work on the flat and looked to have an engine on him. Ferny Hollow was originally bought for £38 grand but was sold for £300,000 after his win to go into training with Willie Mullins. Unlikely to be any value on debut or his other early races, 33/1 for the Bumper seemed a decent price for a horse with huge potential.

    Festival Bumper Ferny Hollow 33/1

    We will see how it all pans out in March but maybe bookies are paying out on Buveur D'air already. Not many 9 year olds win it and Buveur D'air's Punchestown win looks now't special. Supasundae is no world beater, while Apples Jade has looked far from sweet lately. Why, even that whippet Petit Mouchoir was less than five lengths behind that day :emoticon-0110-tongu
     
    #19
  20. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    You described Klassical Dream as special after he sauntered round without a spec on him from a bunch of 140 horses whod been eating dirt for 2 miles.

    The horse Buveur Dair cantered all over and left for dead in Punchestown just beat Klassical Dream but its nowt special. And ive heard from people who were at the track that Klassical Dream looked fit as a butchers dog. Ill actually be very surprised if they dont go the Arkle route now, Mullins looked dejected despite winning the race and was talking about him wanting 2m4, not that hed come on for the run.

    Hes the type of horse who would be hard to catch over fences but he will get walked past after the last in a Champion Hurdle because he only has 1 gear, a decent front runner in Petit Mouchoir exposed his limitations over hurdles and it would be a waste of a season dreaming of champion hurdles.

     
    #20

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