Cheltenham 2020 Ante Post Thread

If they finish in a heap again in the Irish Hennessy then Al Boum Photo will solidify, something would need to win that impressively to challenge him for favouritism and that doesnt look likely. Santini doesnt look the type who will be overly impressive in the Cotswold so can only see him being clear 2nd choice at best, 3rd choice if Lostintranslation bounces back, I think he would have been at worst 2nd in the King George and 2nd by a mile and id fancy him strongly to beat Clan Des Obeaux in the Gold Cup.

I can see the betting ending up something like this.

Al Boum Photo 3/1
Lostintranslation 9/2
Santini 6/1
Delta Work 8/1

 

Kemboy beat that 'boat' Al Boum at Punchestown last year

 

Kemboy who has a Festival record of 54U ? Hardly decent to refer to a Gold Cup winner as a "boat".

 

Waiting Patiently probably miss the rest of the season.

https://www.sportinglife.com/racing/news/waiting-patiently-set-for-surgery/176021

 

Stick i was making light of Eddies comment on Kemboy:

Stealing from the front against boats off a slow pace at 3 miles on flat tracks is his ball game

Al Boum, Clans Des Obeaux, Monalee, have all finished runner-up to Kemboy over 3m in recent starts, none of which are 'boats' and certainly not Al Boum who won over 2m4 LTO!

 

Waiting forever more like! Shame that we won't see him again this season as his last run was pretty promising ...just seems though that horse is either being campaigned strangely/he s being wrapped in cotton wool too much or he suffers setbacks.

 

Cheers. Missed all those

 

Sire de Berlais 10/1 for the crooks and rogues race on the Thursday. Won it last year when hardly getting an easy passage round and was eased into a qualifying place yesterday at Warwick without ever threatening. Looks like he'll be 5lb higher than last year but I reckon he's got a bit in hand.

 

Kemboy is generally 7/4 Fav for the Irish Gold Cup. Delta Work is tight behind and a general 15/8.

The race will clearly have a big bearing on the Gold Cup betting, particularly if Presenting Percy runs. The latter horse varies hugely from 5/1 right up to 10/1 for the Irish Race and surely his participation in ground dependent.

Road To Respect is averaging 9/2, as a clear third Favourite.

For me Kemboy holds the best bits of form for the Cheltenham Gold Cup because he defeated a two time King George winner in Clan Des Obeaux at Aintree and he also defeated the reigning Cheltenham champion Al Boum Photo at Punchestown. You can say what you will about the manner of the victories but he holds victories over the two horses closest to him at the forefront of the betting for the race.

Looking back at the Punchestown Gold Cup it is impossible to conclude that Kemboy stole the race from the front. The race can be watched again here:-

Looking 5m 30s into the video sees Al Boum Photo closing up and the pair jump the 3rd last almost upsides. Shortly after this point the jockey on Al Boum Photo steals a peek between his legs in the manner of a pilot more concerned with anything coming from behind and feeling he has Kemboy covered. It osn't long however before it is Al Boum Photo who comes under pressure, as Ruby looks the more comfortable jockey on Kemboy. Both horses were a bit scrappy at the second last but Kemboy looks the one who only needs to jump the last to win. A good jump at the last seals it for Kemboy and he stays on just as well as Al Boum Photo, if not a shade better in winning by 2 lengths.

If Kemboy cannot progress from his seasonal re-appearance and reverse form with Delta Work in the Irish Gold Cup it will not bode well for his Cheltenham hopes but if he wins he will probably replace Al Boum Photo as the Gold Cup Favourite. From my point of view Al Boum Photo has no comparable form prior to the Gold Cup win and his latest win told us nothing because he was odds-on and had tons in hand of his field. Al Boum Photo could have beaten that field if it were in the Epsom Dash, so there is no relevance to the trip he won over at Tramore last time. The runner up there, Acapella Bourgeois, is a Japanese Super Tanker if we are talking equine boats.

Al Boum Photo faces the defending Champion Hoodoo. We can say that these trends are meaningless but Best Mate was the last horse to defend his title in 2003 and you have to go all the way to L'Escargot in 1971 to find the previous occasion that it happened. That's a very compelling trend.

You can point to Kemboy's Cheltenham record but it is misleading without context. He was a Novice Hurdler rated 142 the first time he was there and a Novice Chaser rated 145 on his second visit. He is now rated 32 lbs higher as a Chaser and you would have to give him the benefit of thinking that he was simply not talented enough when he was 5 and 6 years of age. Kemboy has won on Good ground, Good to Soft ground, Good To Yielding ground, Soft Ground, Heavy ground and Yielding ground. That should not be underplayed I feel, since Presenting Percy and Native River are almost certain to need it very soft to have a realistic shout.

 

Andy Dufresne got back on the winning track at short odds recently. It was a workmanlike success in a race where he was dropped to 2 miles and confounded those who thought he should go up to 3 miles. Gordon Elliot reported that the jockey felt the track was a bit tight for him and that he took a bit of time to get himself organised. The trainer mentioned that 2 and a half mile trips were not being ruled out and I highly doubt he has the speed for a Supreme. Looking back the trainer he still feels something was amiss last time, despite being beaten by a horse he thinks is decent. Perhaps importantly the trainer feels the horse would be better for better ground, based on the way the horse propels himself.

If the bookies are right Envoi Allen has the Ballymore in his pocket anyway and Andy Dufresne ranges from 8/1 to 16/1 across the board. He needs further improvement for sure but strange things can happen at the Festival, with a banker or two likely to derail the acca bets by slipping up.

 

I see there is momentum gathering behind a 5 day festival, thats all we need, another day of that pish, they should be cutting races not adding them.

Champion Hurdle day
Champion Chase day
Gold Cup day

Thats it. The Ryanair should be scrapped and the World Hurdle run on Gold Cup day. Could easily trim a few irrelevant handicaps and races like the mares novice hurdle.

 

Do any bookies take bets on a horse winning at the Cheltenham Festival rather than having to guess which race they might run in? So, if a horse is 20/1 for one race and 25/1 for another, just give you 20/1 for whichever race it runs in

 

yes they do. William Hill have this sort of bet and I’d assume others do too.

 

Most of them do. Its under the 'to win any race' market.

 

Just to give you an idea Ron, prices off Pad Power...
Win any race -
Envoi Allen 4/5
Honeysuckle Evs
Defi Du Seuill 5/2
Fakir D'Oudariries 4/1

Entered -
Envoi Allen - Supreme @ 7/1, Ballymore @ 5/4
Honeysuckle - Champion Hurdle @ 10/1, Mares @ 15/8
Defi Du Seuil - Ryan Air @ 8/1
Fakir D'oudaries - Arkle @ 13/2, Marsh Novice @ 10/1

You takes your pick, takes your chance...

 

Tight sods. How does that compare with backing each separately NRNB?

 

Three days is plenty for Cheltenham. The quality is being spread more than enough as it is.

The stayers race has always lacked depth of talent and can't justify an extra day to be the highlight of. World Hurdle? Why In The World Hurdle more like.

The Festival is jam-packed with Handicap races which are virtually impossible to work out with Irish horses coming into the mix. It's suicide punting material really.

It makes you yearn for the happy days when you picked four on the Tuesday for the Supreme Novices, Arkle, Champion Hurdle and the Stayers. Back then you only got TV coverage for the first three races because the bloody Budget was on after the Champion Hurdle. My Yankee bet was turned into a Trixie and Galmoy was left out of the equation. Vagador 4/1, Danish Flight 11/2 and Celtic Shot 7/1 went on to land my Trixie but when I went to collect my winnings a glance at the result of the Stayers race read 1st Galmoy 2/1 and my potential 779/1 Four Timer was pissed on by the Budget and my own stupidity.