1. Log in now to remove adverts - no adverts at all to registered members!

Cheltenham 2020 Ante Post Thread

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by Pilgrim, Nov 13, 2019.

  1. Pilgrim

    Pilgrim Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 10, 2018
    Messages:
    2,940
    Likes Received:
    3,349
    I totally agree. I keep my faith in Hamundarson, second on Boxing day, the third of the race has won the Musselburg bumper today very easily.
     
    #221
    OddDog likes this.
  2. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2018
    Messages:
    2,737
    Likes Received:
    1,798
    Rayapour finally has an entry. The ex Alain De-Royer Dupre Gelding was never going to race last year after being gelded, so it was always going to be the case that he would get little experience before Cheltenham. Ruby Walsh had described the horse as exciting and he will need to be to cope with the assignment ahead of him on debut. The target is the Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown on the 2nd Feb and that's a Grade 1 contest where Triumph Hurdle favourite Aspire Tower is odds-on in the ante-post book. I was surprised to see betting up so early for this race, especially with the favourite 4/6 in the betting. Despite not having been seen out of the Willie Mullins yard yet, Rayapour is joint 2nd Fav on 6/1 with Joseph O'Brien's Cerberus for the Spring Juvenile race. O'Brien's horse has four races under his belt and was second to Allmankind last time but he never laid a glove on the front running Skelton horse that day.

    The Spring Juvenile should see form lines compared and Cerberus has a lot to do as a 131 rated horse taking on Aspire Tower, who is a stone ahead on 145 after 2 winning runs for Henry De Bromhead. Allmankind is rated 148 by the official handicapper but unusually for them the Racing Post were lower on 140 for his win from Cerberus.

    Looking at the Flat form of some of those mentioned sees Aspire Tower as last running in the Shergar Cup off a mark of 86. I have heard a few times now that Allmankind was supposed to have been reckoned to be a Derby candidate when with Michael Bell at 2YO but whoever started that story was talking bollocks because he won a maiden at Chelmsford on his 4th start when rated 87, so some perspective is required. I have heard a few times that flat horses should be capable of running to a rating of between 40 and 45 lbs higher than their flat mark. Obviously some take to the game better than others and it's only a ball park rule of thumb but Aspire Tower now 145 compared to the Flat figure of 86 is 59 lbs Higher and Allmankind on 148 compared to 90 on the Flat, so his difference of 58 gives us a pair who are well more advanced that the rough guide. Rayapour had an official rating of 97 on the Flat in France, so if he can translate some of that to the hurdles game he could be decent but he will need to be to catch up with the best juveniles. I had a speculative punt at 33/1 on him and he has never really moved from that position but I did notice that SkyBet cut him to 25/1, then 20/1 and now into 16/1 over the past few days and Hills now have him 25/1. He doesn't need to win the Spring Hurdle on his debut but he does need to go close to become a proper player. If Aspire Tower hoses up he seems sure to go tight for the Triumph.

    I find it tough to call between Aspire Tower and Allmankind. Allmankind has that aggressive style of running that could break any field but yet you wonder if he will simply be a sitting duck for the pack on the big day. Aspire Tower has mostly led and been a bit keen in his two wins, so could they cut each others throats at Cheltenham?

    Goshen is the other unbeaten hurdler at the top of the Triumph betting and he is rated 143 on official figures. Not much to find with the others but he haed a penalty kick last time at 1/3 Fav and is 1/4 for another seeming Spot Kick in the gutters of Ascot tomorrow. I am not keen to be with him for the Festival myself. No sign of an entry for the 107 OR Flat horse Micro Manage yet but his odds are trimmed to 10/1 in several places for the Triumph.

    I'll stick with my speculation on Rayapour for now in a race where small stakes at big odds seemed the sensible place to start.
     
    #222
    Earendil likes this.
  3. kevloaf

    kevloaf Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2013
    Messages:
    133
    Likes Received:
    145
    He's definitely entered in the QMCC and Ryanair :)

    Apologies for the random picture of Tiger Roll, Haha!
     

    Attached Files:

    #223
  4. kevloaf

    kevloaf Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2013
    Messages:
    133
    Likes Received:
    145
    Tough to imagine shes the best of Willie's.

    Power Of Pause that runs this Sunday, I expect to be fav for the bumper come Sunday evening.
     
    #224
    Ste D and OddDog like this.
  5. Ste D

    Ste D Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2011
    Messages:
    5,691
    Likes Received:
    2,839
    I backed this horse today 28/1 Ew, my second ante post bet along with Fly Smart.
     
    #225
  6. Chaninbar

    Chaninbar The Crafty Cockney

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2011
    Messages:
    4,675
    Likes Received:
    3,153
    Any news over there on Energumene Ste? Has Willie confirmed that he’s staying in bumpers this season?
     
    #226
  7. Ste D

    Ste D Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 8, 2011
    Messages:
    5,691
    Likes Received:
    2,839
    Haven't heard anything Chan will let you know if I hear any info
     
    #227
    Chaninbar likes this.
  8. kevloaf

    kevloaf Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2013
    Messages:
    133
    Likes Received:
    145
    Fly Smart would need to be out in the next couple of weeks wouldn't he... 2 career starts, would need to win a maiden for Willie, going to be a tough ask on his 4th career start.

    Chantry House's form just got a bit of a boost. Certainly no standout Supreme contender so far - the best we've seen isn't the best in his stable.



    Fingers crossed with PoPause.
     
    #228
  9. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2018
    Messages:
    2,737
    Likes Received:
    1,798
    Delighted with Monkfish today. He strolled home by 20 lengths staying on really strongly over 2 miles 6 and a half furlongs. Generally between 8/1 and 10/1 now for the Albert Bartlett with a couple of bits of 12/1 left. He was rated 150 by The Racing Post today and that is good enough to be a major player at the festival. Commander Of Fleet was favourite for last season's Albert Bartlett and he was rated 145 on RPR for his run prior to the big one and was officially rated 143.

    Thyme Hill is favourite for the Albert Bartlett but he wouldn't be guaranteed to want 3 miles and unless they want to duck Envoi Allen in the Ballymore, there would seem no need to go for the Albert Bartlett.

    More than happy with Monkfish and he looks a real player for Cheltenham.
     
    #229
    smokethedeadbadger likes this.
  10. kevloaf

    kevloaf Active Member

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2013
    Messages:
    133
    Likes Received:
    145
    Good tip, well done.

    The horse that beat him earlier in the season, Diol Ker of any interest? That form looks excellent if you go through it.
     
    #230
    Grendel likes this.

  11. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2018
    Messages:
    2,737
    Likes Received:
    1,798
    The last I heard was that the trainer had said Diol Ker was a nice horse for the future and that he didn't want to over-race him this season. He is entered at Leopardstown on 1st February, so we may see him then. He did beat Monkfish 7 lengths but I am hoping that the Mullins horse could reverse form with more experience and the stable are in better form of late. A couple of weeks ago Willie was only 16% in terms of strike rate but over the past fortnight that has risen to 33% and I am hoping the stable can be ripe for Cheltenham.

    Diol Ker is entered in a Grade 1 won by Commander Of Fleet last season and the 2m 6f contest has several of the prominent Albert Bartlett possibles entered up as as well. Names like Fury Road, Easywork and Latest Exhibition have appealing profiles and decent enough ratings at this stage but I would not be sure about them all showing up to do battle with Diol Ker if he holds his ground. Gordon Elliott said after Easywork's last start that he could easily drop to 2 miles next time and it could be key that he holds an entry over that distance the day after the 2m 6f contest.

    The 12/1 on Monkfish has gone and he is between 7/1 and 10/1 now. Fury Road is tied in on form with Alpine Cobra, who was 21 lengths behind him when they met. The same horse was 20 lengths behind Monkfish today. It may be though that Monkfish reads better by virtue of creating his margin on Yielding ground, whereas Fury Road dished his tanking out on Heavy going.

    Diol Ker will be very interesting if he lines up on 1st February.
     
    #231
    kevloaf likes this.
  12. niksboy

    niksboy Active Member

    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2011
    Messages:
    582
    Likes Received:
    159
    I have tickets for the trials day at Cheltenham on Saturday is this likely to shed any light on subsequent festival entries or will most trainers have already targeted their races?
    Any suggestions on what I should be looking out for would be welcome but I’m really keen to see the course when there aren’t thousands of people milling around.
    A festival race day is exceptional but most of it is experienced through Guinness vision and on Saturday it will be about horses not drink.
     
    #232
  13. rudebwoy

    rudebwoy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2013
    Messages:
    4,717
    Likes Received:
    2,803
    my ex was from cheltenham so used to go to some of the low key events there , a big barren racecourse on a tuesday evening , it’s impressive setting aside , you’ve long walks to facilities in them days as lots were shut !
    Throw in a cold easterly wind , i was underwhelmed . Obviously at festival it’s banging , but like going into an empty nightclub , when it’s not packed it’s a different vibe . I’m sure you’ll be fine this sat . Plenty of tweed about <laugh>
     
    #233
    niksboy and SaveTheHumans like this.
  14. Chaninbar

    Chaninbar The Crafty Cockney

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2011
    Messages:
    4,675
    Likes Received:
    3,153
    The 7 year olds in full tweed is something I've only ever seen at Chelters
     
    #234
    rudebwoy likes this.
  15. CaptainPops

    CaptainPops Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2013
    Messages:
    2,333
    Likes Received:
    1,437
    I have never been to Cheltenham trials day Niksboy so not sure what sort of size of crowd it attracts possibly a bit quieter than new years day meet but busier than the showcase meeting in October.

    Take a moment to saviour the various tweed items on display. :emoticon-0111-blush Get yourself down to the paddock assuming you have tattersalls/club tickets and have a good look at the runners before the race. Have a swift beer in the dawn run bar which is right next to the paddock and sample the nice view of cleeve hill from the terrace in front of the bar.

    The Cotswold chase could have quite a good line up this year so that could be a race to saviour. That is likely to be a race used as a wsrm up for some cheltenham gold cup hopefuls. I shall be in Cheltenham on the evening but not going racing myself...that could well involve a swift one or two in the Wetherspoons followed by a trip to Montpelier area..:emoticon-0167-beer:
     
    #235
    Last edited: Jan 20, 2020
    niksboy likes this.
  16. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2011
    Messages:
    13,630
    Likes Received:
    4,658
    Normally 20k in attendance for the Trials Day, so it'll be busy but just a fraction of what we will see in a couple of months. My best tip for the day is to get down to the last hurdle/fence if you can for one of the races, its always very interesting to see them jump the last and then hear the grandstands as they finish.

    I've had a quick look at entries, could be a very interesting day depending on who declares. I think we should see at least one festival horse from the Cleeve!!
     
    #236
  17. Chaninbar

    Chaninbar The Crafty Cockney

    Joined:
    Dec 30, 2011
    Messages:
    4,675
    Likes Received:
    3,153
    Always go down to the last fence for one race at the Festival. It's usually QMCC on the Wednesday. Watched Sprinter wing it a few years back, awesome sight. Thursday for me this year though so maybe Ryanair?
     
    #237
  18. woolcombe-folly007

    woolcombe-folly007 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 9, 2011
    Messages:
    8,657
    Likes Received:
    1,462
    Fly Smart entered this weekend in a maiden hurdle!!
     
    #238
    Pilgrim and Ste D like this.
  19. Pilgrim

    Pilgrim Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 10, 2018
    Messages:
    2,940
    Likes Received:
    3,349
    :emoticon-0105-wink::emoticon-0105-wink::emoticon-0105-wink:
     
    #239
    Ste D likes this.
  20. Pilgrim

    Pilgrim Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 10, 2018
    Messages:
    2,940
    Likes Received:
    3,349
    And Gin On Lime.
     
    #240
    Ste D likes this.

Share This Page