Cheltenham Nap/Lay/Ew

With Cheltenham just around the corner I thought I would start the annual Nap/Lay/Ew.So let's have it!
NAP-I was torn between Apples Jade & Buvair D'air but I will nominate the latter.Faugheen doesn't look the force of old and there doesn't appear to be anything else that will get near him.
LAY.Footpad has done nothing wrong this season but faces two decent opponents in Petit Mouchoir and Saint Calvados.We know PM beat Footpad here last year and Davy Russell didn't go to hard on him when beaten at ltwon lto.He will certainly give Footpad a race in what should be a cracker.
EW-I like Road to Respect in the GC.Won at the course last year and had been campaigned with this race in mind all season.I think he will run a huge race and should be there abouts.

 

I like this Ste

NAP - Our Duke (taken a while to come to the boil but last run suggests he will fulfill the promise of last season)
Lay - Buveuir D’air (An 80% Faugheen will kick this pretender out of the way - won the worst Champ Hurdle since Katchit in ‘08)
EWay - The Worlds End (needs better ground to show he’s the horse that looked good last year and would have gone close in the potato race but for falling)

 

Nap; SAMCRO, in a different league to the rest of this field unless my eyes are failing me.

Lay: ALTIOR, the bounce numbers are there for all to see and the opposition has improved markedly.

EW: BLACK CORTON, ok was a much better price before the weekend but when is everyone going to cotton on to how good this little horse is?

 

Nap - Apples Jade - just can not see her getting beat.
Lay - Might Bite - can not see him fighting them off up the hill.
Ew - Thomas Campbell - liking what i have read on here about him the last few days.

 

Nap. Apples Jade
Lay. Well I heard stick had an appointment at Specsavers so I'll go for Samcro
EW Don't know yet

 

Nap - Virak - Putting aside the arguments re pros nicking the amateur's pot I reckon Nicholls has the Foxhunters prize surrounded and I've opted for this one to win it.
Lay - Footpad - As already mentioned he has some serious oppo.
EW - Definitly Red - got to have a stayer in the Gold Cup and fully expect Ellison's horse to out run his odds. And if Might Bite's gets a wobble on again up that hill over 2 furlongs further I wouldn't be at all surprised to see DR go sailing last him.

 

Nap , no idea yet
Lay , anything alex tips
E/w, no idea yet

 

Very good thread. Keeping it simple and preventing people from hiding behind a wall of horses. Also should be highly informative.

NAP – Movewiththetimes (Close Brothers Novice Handicap Chase – 14/1) – I think this race (since moving to a 0-145 this term) has replaced the ‘Pertemps Final’ as the ‘more plots than an Agatha Christie’ heat. Now the ceiling has been raised to 145 it allows connections of horses who previously would have been aimed, with possible place claims, at the Arkle/JLT to ‘undercook’ their animals prior to the Festival and then arrive at the meeting with genuine winning possibilities. I think to win you need an animal with a good 10 lbs in hand of the handicapper. I think Movewiththetimes is such an animal and off 142 think he will have a perch that will be exploited to the full. Expect the old ‘handbrake’ to be released on the opening day of the meet.

LAY – Personally I don’t think any of the ‘shorties’ are that unreasonably priced but if someone held a gun to my head, which I’m sure no-one would ever want to do, then I’d say Footpad in the old Arkle.

EW – Knight of Noir. Wherever he goes – 100/1 (NRNB) for the Stayers Hurdle and 40/1 (NRNB) for the Ultima. See thread titled the horses name for reasons.

 

Haven't looked Barney but is it Night or Knight (this looks like the one in your thread)?

 

Sorry, Ron. Yep should have read Knight (not Night) Of Noir above. The same horse as detailed on yesterdays thread.

 

NAP- GETABIRD - looks a very weak renewal and wouldn’t have to improve to win where as the others do

LAY- BVD- just because he is so short that if he wins he wouldn’t cost too much and his prep hasn’t really been ideal

Ew- WICKLOW BRAVE

If he jumps off his time I can’t see him out the places, won well over in punchestown and at 25/1 he is worth a shot of him going!

 

Agree regarding Wicklow Brave's ew chances in Champ Hurdle. However I'd rather he'd had a prep run if only to remind the the bloody horse that it's a national hunt start not stalls. Cost the horse 10 lengths last year. Came there swinging at the bottom of the hill but the effort to make up for the start told on him ultimately.

 

Changed

 

NAP - Apples Jade
LAY - Getabird
E/W - Oh Oh 7 (or 0 0 Seven), depending on your stance.

(All based on 'feeling', not knowledge, nor info).

 

NAP - Sizing John. The forgotten horse. One bad run and is written off. Thoroughly underwhelmed with Mite Bites King George win and think he's say too short for this. Native River will probably try run them all into the ground but in my opinion he's destined for a place at best. So for me last year's winner has to be it and you have to believe Jessica Harrington will have him spot on for it.

Lay - Getabird. Just a silly short price for a race like this there could be owt lurking in there so got to be worth taking on.

EW - My Tent Our Yours. Tough to pick an each way bet when you have no idea for the most part what's running where or which horses will keep their entries. So going for what I think is a safe bet. With doubts over Faugheen and the fav not seeming to have any real challenges my gut is telling me that this is a race that could surprise this year and therefore my each way selection goes to a horse who is proven in the race at the course and I just can't see him out of the places.

 

NAP : Apples Shakira. Triumph Hurdle 3/1

LAY : Altior

E/W. Double Shuffle. Gold Cup. 40/1

 

NAP - Samcro. Looks a beast and will have too much for the opposition.

LAY - Apples Shakira. This is a tough competitive race and I can see it being beat.

EW - Singlefarmpayment. I m convinced horse is being readied for a big run at Cheltenham which is probably the Ultima Handicap. Has had a strange campaign but will at least place here.

 

Nap - apples jade
Lay - Might bite
Ew - sizing john

 

Is Samcro really that good a bet?

1. He hasn't beaten anything of note
2. All his times are very slow (admittedly on soft ground)
3. He has never run on a sound surface, so what if the ground comes up good?
4. He has never run at Cheltenham. What if he doesn't like the course?
5. I'll need to get Amanda to have a look at some videos but from what I saw, there is something I'm not sure about his action behind. He doesn't seem to use his back end too well (drags his hind legs through the fences sometimes). His action looks a little on the short side (doesn't seem to cover much ground). That could be an illusion or me being stupid.

If the ground comes up good I think he could be vulnerable.

Now the question for me is. Is there a better horse in the race? I don't know but, with some question marks against Samcro, I would have to have a look at the others, starting with On The Blind Side and Next Destination.

I notice that Robbie Power has been quoted as saying he should go for the Champion Hurdle. Personally I think that is very wishful thinking.

We'll see. All ante post backers will be delighted with this post