Just for the craic what's your Nap/Lay/Ew for the Cheltenham festival folks. NAP-Sir Eric.Flat horses changing codes have not taken well to hurdles the last few festivals but I think this lad could be the real deal. LAY-Al Dancer-Impressive Betfair Hurdle victor buy they having a shocking record winning the Supreme so will take him on. EW Punt-A wide open festivel so lots to choose from but I was impressed with Ask For Glory bumper win at Chepstow in December.Nicholls yard in rude health so nice ew price at 20/1.
Nap - Altior, BVD, Tiger Roll, Benie Des Dieux Lay - Champ, Santini, Footpad. Ew - Might Bite Swapped Presenting Percy for Champ.
NAP Altior the obvious one but at 1/3 that's only a filler in a multiple for a working man. So Hazel Hill in the Foxhunters for Shropshires P2P maestro, Philip Rowley. LAY Santini EACH WAY Queenohearts (Mares Novice) Fact of the Matter (XC)
NAP- Benie Des Dieux LAY - Santini Each Way - Cloth Cap (NH Chase) if its good or good to soft. If soft or worse I'll nominate Singlefarmpayment (Ultima)
I see a few tips for Might Bite here. Henderson said that they had changed the horse's medication for ulcers, a problem he has always had treatment for. They report him to be working more like himself now. The trainer also mentioned that they had given him a procedure to help with his breathing but they were sceptical from the start that he actually was getting his problems from there. After a couple of poor runs Might Bite is in the realms of a risky proposition to my eyes. Averaging 12/1 he is no value to me given that he seemed to hit the wall behind Native River last season. Presenting Percy and Clan Des Obeaux are new faces on the scene and heading the market this year, Kemboy is another new contender who is on the back of a personal best last time. It seems a bigger ask than last season, when I felt he was travelling like the winner and then simply ran out of stamina. My Nap this year is Battleoverdoyen in the Ballymore. He's unbeaten and has struck me for a while as the most likely horse to come up that hill and earn quotes for future years at the Festival. Form isn't a lot to talk about for now but his potential is immense and I think he is going to announce himself as a good one by perhaps going off favourite over Champ on the day and sending a few Irish hats flying at the finishing line. I usually put several up as lays. This year I feel the following are all Lays at current odds:- Presenting Percy, Clan Des Obeaux, Al Dancer, Glen Forsa, Laurina, Champ, Delta Work and Sir Erec. Presenting Percy has had a strange preparation and what if the ground at Cheltenham turns out the same as all the times this season that he has had to miss races? Clan Des Obeaux took advantage of Might Bite running a stinker and Native River being taken off his feet from the off in the King George. Bristol De Mai fell and took Waiting Patiently with him in that race and Waiting Patienty was underwhelming when thrashed by Cyrname in any case next time. Maybe Clan Des Obeaux will proveto be the real deal in the Gold Cup but he's a couple of points shorter than the horse who won it last year and he halved in price for beating Terrefort in a Denman Chase that was more or less a match. Given Terrefort's efforts this season I just don't think the odds of the horse likely to off favourite for the Gold Cup are value. Al Dancer won the Betfair Hurdle but I have seen winners of that race fail in the Supreme in the past. Getaway Trump has let that form down with a poor effort since and I didn't think that was a strong race. I didn't have a bet in that Betfair because my original fancy from the abandoned meeting (Lisp) ended up way short in the betting on the day. Lisp was one of the few older horses I fancied in the Betfair but he made a mistake and seemed to fade quickly as if something might have gone amiss. MicK Fitzgerald was having multiple orgasms about how impressive Al Dancer was but I didn't share his enthusiasm for the performance. There are enough alternative contenders to make 3/1 on Al Dancer look ridiculously short to me and I think he's a suicidal price myself. Glen Forsa upset Kalashnikov last time and it seemed it was comprehensive enough for the latter's trainer to think about upping her horse in trip for the JLT but she has now stated that he will go in the Arkle as originally planned. Glen Forsa had seemed to have a good mark on 138 but that was blown up to 150 after his shock easy win and that more or less forced their hand. Not to be totally ruled out but I just can't get away from the notion that he would be lining up at big odds in the Arkle if the latest win had not happened. The value seems gone to me with some dubiety about Defi De Seuil's target and a couple of good looking rivals in the mix to question the 4/1 odds of Glen Forsa, who had been 40/1 before upsetting the "Rifle" Champ was made favourite for the Ballymore after winning at Christmas time. It was a good enough staying performance on the day but not exactly electric. The second and third have run poorly since and even before that happened there were some who felt Champ was vulberable. Battleoverdoyen is going to be a tough nut to crack from the Elliott yard and I reckon Champ is desperately skinny at an average of 11/4 across the boards. Delta Work impressed me a couple of runs back and it was no surprise to see him red hot favourite on his next start. He travelled like the winner from a long way out that day but despite winning clearly enough he just didn't give me the same impression as he had the time before. Multiple entries at Cheltenham see him in the four miler, the RSA and the JLT. I am suggesting a lay for him in the RSA, where I feel Santini has form that is working out better despite him only being third last time. I just wonder if Delta Work was less impressive because he stepped up to 3 miles last time and had run a 2 and a half the time before? I might be tempted to go JLT if he was mine. Surely he won't run in the 4 miler? Sir Erec is a banker for many during the Festival but despite a good win last time I am not sure about how strong a race he won. His first win was a very modest affair and he's plenty short enough now despite being the classy Flat horse rated 109 on the level. It is weak Triumph Hurdle to my eyes but even so I just feel Sir Erec is skinny enough. Apples Shakira was a similar banker last season at the same odds but was only 4th in the end. Initially I felt Quel Destin would find a few too good despite his winning run but as the race has taken shape I felt he was a solid each-way option for punters who like to cover their bets. In this instance I just went win only on Quel Destin at 8/1 because I already had a doomed bet on Torpillo. My each-way shot is Get In The Queue at 10/1. Harry Fry's Mount Nelson gelding looked the part in dismantling his field at Exeter last time and with the two at the head of the market very short in the betting I expect a big run at the odds and there will probably be place concessions on the day of the race. I doubt there will be many able to best the exciting looking Get In The Queue and he looks a good standard in the Bumper.
Nice write up Grendel. You make some good points although I do disagree on Al Dancer. I was very taken by his Betfair hurdle run and his previous run at Cheltenham was very impressive beating the field by 12 lengths. He stayed on strongly up the hill that day. I would say Cheltenham really suits this horse. Interestingly the 4th in that cheltenham race Highest Son has won since and another horse behind him was narrowly beaten on weekend (Champagne City). Vibes coming from the stable are very strong too...
Excellent thread. NAP – Santini (RSA Chase) LAY – OK Corral (NH Chase) E/W – Coole Cody at 50/1 (Pertemps Final)
I think Glen Forsa will run away with the Arkle. With the main Irish challengers unfortunately missing due to injury I think their challenge looks below par this year, with the Sullivan Bloodstock pair of Willie's (who both probably better over further) and possibly Ornua their strongest. Glen Forsa absolutely tanked through the race at Sandown and won incredibly easily under hands and heels. For me Lalor is a good ground horse and there is zero chance of him getting that a week tomorrow. Defi Du Seuil is better over further and I think they would be foolish to run him here. After that Kingmaker romp I would seriously have Glen Forsa at around the 5/2 or 2/1 mark for the Arkle and if he were trained by Nicholls or Henderson I am sure he would be shorter. The fact that he has already won over further does not detract from the fact that he is a slick, accurate jumper who will love that hill.
NAP - Fakir D'Oudaries (Supreme or Triumph) NB - Epatante (Mares Novice), Paisley Park (Stayers) Lay - OK Corral (NH Chase) E/W - Relegate (Albert Bartlett), Hardline (Arkle)
Nap ; Clan Des Obeaux Lays; Nothing at the prices. The real shorties won’t all win, but they’re all there on merit. I’ll be amazed if Presenting Percy wins the GC, but his price is now becoming more realistic by the day. Don’t really want to be a layer or backer at around 4/1 E/W Themistocles, Pertemps Final
Santini out? 29% of RSA Chase ante-post bets could be voided According to Oddschecker all's not well with Santini at the moment...?!? Rumours are growing that one of Nicky Henderson's stars will miss Cheltenham. Previous RSA Chase favourite Santini has drifted from 11/4 out to 4/1 today amidst rumours that he will miss next week’s Cheltenham Festival. If the rumours are true then 29% of bets on the RSA Chase will be void, with Santini the most backed in that race since markets opened. Seen as a leading hope for Nicky Henderson, the seven-year-old was third in last year’s Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle and had been heavily backed to get a first festival win this year. While a portion of punters will be covered by ‘Non-Runner No Bet’ offers more recently, much of the early money will fall victim. This comes just hours after another hopeful, Vinndication, was confirmed as a non-runner. As a result, punters are already flocking to alternatives in the market. Gordon Elliott’s Delta Work, now 5/2 favourite, has attracted three times more bets than the second most backed runner in the market in the last 24 hours with 49%. Oddschecker spokesperson George Elek: “Santini looks set to disappoint Cheltenham punters for a second year running as last year's beaten Albert Bartlett favourite appears to be a possible late withdrawal from the festival. “Gordon Elliott's Delta Work now becomes the leading RSA contender which will be music to the ears of those backing the Irishman to claim consecutive top trainer titles.”
Agree that Lalor looks a poor bet now with the rain forecast. I just felt that Glen Forsa was very tight now based on one race where the favourite was a flop on the day. The Arkle is the second race of the meeting, so hopefully it isn't too soft by then but if it is I would expect Kalashnikov's connections to be hopeful of a better show from their contender. Glen Forsa's jumping will be an asset but I just have that nagging feeling that he may have been handicap bound prior to his big win last time. For all that he has made great strides forward this season there's the lingering concern for me that he was running at 3 miles two runs back. Delta Work is 2/1 and 9/4 now on the back of Santini drifting to 4/1 on the heads of losing a shoe on the gallops and being poulticed as a precaution. I think Delta Work is mega short at those odds with Paul Nicholls' Topofthegame confirmed for the RSA, rated only 1 lb lower than Delta Work and tied in with some of the best form in the division. Delta Work at half the odds of Topofthegame makes no appeal to me. I'll be with the latter or Santini on the day, the coin is in the air for now.
