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Classics Betting Update, News, Opinion

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by Grendel, Apr 22, 2020.

  1. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    With Grendel on Love And Thunder, think its very interesting that Gosden throws her into this, they had another nice Juddmonte filly entered but have went with this one after only winning a maiden. she was all but a winner first time out, and the horse who was lucky to beat her has since been 2nd in a G2. The form of that Newbury win looks like it could be hit and miss, but as Grendel says, the style of the win was more impressive than the formbook will tell. Cloak Of Spirits wants wants 7.5f, not 8.5f imo, and while you have to respect her in a G3, shes easily taken on at the prices. Fooraat has a great pedigree and has been impressive in 2 AW runs but shes priced up like shes already proven at this level, even the 5/2 earlier in the week wasnt too tempting but looks a decent filly all the same. Love And Thunder looked the bet at the prices and you dont see these colours often, they are usually on a Group horse. I tried to get a ton at 10s but the max was 75.

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    Missed the 6/1 on Mutazawwed in the Woodcote but backed him at 4/1 which I think is still decent value, and I might back him again at 9/2 now available with Betfred. Johnston has a great record in the race and this one looks the right type, plenty of tactical speed like his dam and while the form of his Lingfield win doesnt amount to much, the early speed he showed will stand him in good stead in a race which is usually strongly run. Modern News looks a bit slow for this race and it will be a bit of a culture shock for Twaasol I think, he done well to win on debut against the same owners more experienced favourite who hung the race away, and he might be the best horse long term but I think the Johnston runner looks more ready for a race like this.

    Have Love antepost at 20/1 and I think she will be very hard to beat, Frankly Darling has surprised me with her progress but I think she will come up short, wouldnt be shocked if Enistymon reversed the form with her and shes probably the value at the current prices, but Love sets the standard and looks bombproof in every department.

    Alpine Star and English King are very difficult to get away from and both are starting to look like tempting prices at around 3/1, I have went way off Vatican City after having a small bet on him at 10/1 last week, and there are question marks about everything else. I can see why Obrien loves Mogul, hes a big good looking cruiser but how much he has improved from Ascot is anyones guess, he has managed to convince Moore but the vibes are that opinion is split in Ballydoyle. There is also a danger that hes a bit powderpuff as well, not quite as good as he hints that hes going to be, hes nailed on to be in the 3 and will likely move stylishly into the race but I think Russian Emperor and/or English King will be too strong for him at the finish. Russian Emperor just stays all day, he doesnt do anything quickly and his main issue will be keeping in touch with them for his relentless slogging finish to be effective, for racings sake I hope the more explosive English King is the real deal, and given his racing style I dont see the draw being much of an issue, but it will make him a backable price.

    He looks the tpye of horse who could be an Arc horse if he proves up to the top level, unlike some recent Derby winners, and the 25/1 is worth taking on the off chance. The classiest horse in the French Derby Victor Lodurom wont stay 1m4 and threats looks thin on the ground to him, I thought Hurricane Dream looked potentially classy and have backed him at 20/1 but he still has to prove it at a higher level and his pedigree is suspect to say the least.
     
    #321
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  2. CaptainPops

    CaptainPops Well-Known Member

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    Not sure what the ground is going to ride like on Saturday but I fancy Vatican City. I was quite taken with his finish in the Irish 2000 guineas, he finished strongly and was difficult to pull up. Trainer has been reported as saying that he was barely ready for the race. Not sure if that is just poppycock or there is some truth in it. As it was his first run of the season I will side with the latter.

    Providing the going is good at worst tomorrow, I think I will back him. He is brilliantly bred, and whilst there are question marks as to whether he will stay I will take the chance that he will. Stall 8 seems ok and jockey has previous in the derby so can do a good job with the steering.

    With money likely to come for the top two plus Russian Emperor and Mogul, he could be available at bigger odds than 10/1 tomorrow...
     
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  3. dylanthomas

    dylanthomas Active Member

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    No one giving Kameko a chance?
     
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  4. Archers Road

    Archers Road Urban Spaceman

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    I don’t know enough about breeding to rate his chances of getting 1m4f, but he wasn’t stopping at Newmarket, looked like he had more to offer in fact.

    There’s a good chance he’ll be burdened with my money, as will Pyledriver, on price if nothing else. So that’s probably the two to avoid.
     
    #324
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  5. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    I do
     
    #325
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  6. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Kameko is an 8-10f horse, he could run 12f in America or Australia but not here against Galileos. This race will be about a minute longer than the Guineas. Id be surprised if he didn't end up 4th choice in the betting and tbh I will give the game up if he wins it.
     
    #326
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  7. hammyend

    hammyend Member

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    The ground at Epsom is currently good - soft in places. The forecast down here is not great - as I type it is currently raining - with the promise of more to come. If the prevailing conditions remain it could finish up being good to soft or possibly soft all over. This could compromise the chances of English King who was unplaced on his only effort on soft ground. It was his first run so probably not to read too much into that. Of more concern for the favourite is stall one anyone know who was the last horse to win from that draw?
     
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  8. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    As you say hammy, that was his debut on soft. He was slowly away, and he ran green, staying on. For an introducory run, over 8f on soft I would say that was reasonably encouraging. I'll be surprised if he doesn't act on gs. With it softening up I think the big danger will be Russian Emperor, and maybe the draw
     
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  9. hammyend

    hammyend Member

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    I will answer my own question. Oath in 1999 was the last winner from stall 1
     
    #329
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  10. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Oath was the last to win from stall 1, apparently no one has ever won from stall 2, 11 or 16, but there was no reports of dreaded draws for Mogul or Kameko, just another racing myth, one of the sillier ones given its 12f at Epsom.
     
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    Last edited: Jul 3, 2020

  11. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Oath

    5% of winners have been from 1, same from 2. Sounds just under average to me, but no more.
     
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    Last edited: Jul 3, 2020
  12. CaptainPops

    CaptainPops Well-Known Member

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    There is a big race analysis in the sporting life saying they predict 'good' going as there is not much rain about today and tomorrow with both days being warm.:emoticon-0100-smile

    Bit of guesswork and probably best thing to do is find out the going in the morning as well as predicted weather conditions before placing your bet :emoticon-0148-yes:
     
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  13. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    English King was always going to drift simply because he was too short to begin with. The draw isn't really a factor in my opinion. He does have the Frankie factor but the trainer will mean nothing to the average Derby punter. I would have had him a 5/1 shot myself and we may see that tomorrow.

    I feel Mogul will probably go off favourite. O'Brien and Moore should see to that but it can't have been a simple decision for the jockey to make and I felt Mogul looked slow last time out. He wasn't impressive in the Futurity either last season and his stable companions have finished ahead of him in both those contests, so any faith that Moore "Knows" he is on the right one seems to be a childlike faith, rather than one based on evidence. Win or lose, I think Mogul is appalling value and the bottom line is that Mogul's best win is in a weak looking Group 2 from Sinawann, a 105 rated colt who was no more than adequate in winning a weak looking Group 3 the other day.

    I would rather take a Guineas winner at the same price as Mogul any day. Kameko ended Pinatubo's unbeaten run and he finished strongly in the 2000 Guineas to claim Wichita and the top rated 2YO from last year. Both of those colts ran well next time behind Palace Pier, who may yet be the best 3YO colt of the season. That form line is the strongest, most fleshed out and reliable that we have coming into the Derby.

    Roaring Lion went into the Derby with stamina questions and the colt didn't quite get home that day. He still finished 3rd and was ahead of the Guineas winner that day though and he was only beaten 2 lengths. The question would be that if Kameko doesn't stay, by how much does that fact degrade his finishing position? I think it is possible that Kameko could run 3 or more lengths below his 2000 Guineas form and still win this year's Derby. Obviously if he patently fails to stay it could affect his final position by many lengths.

    I felt that last year's Futurity was worth looking at for clues. A mile can be a test for some 2YO horses. Run on Newcastle's all-weather track, the old Racing Post Trophy has been won by several Derby winners and generally throws up that type rather than Guineas horses and Kingston Hill even won the St Leger. However, recent winners like Rivet have not stayed 12F and the last three winners of the 2YO race, Saxon Warrior, Magna Grecia and Kameko himself, all went on to win tje 2000 Guineas the following spring. Can Kameko buck that trend then?

    This was last year's Futurity race:-



    From a positive point of view Kameko is happy to sit in behind and coming into the closing stages he is going the best of them. I actually felt the jockey sent him on too early and he was in front plenty long enough. Kameko keeps on going really well though and he wasn't stopping, nor were the others closing him down. Given the race to ride again I feel the jockey would have held onto him longer in behind before asking him. Kameko will probably need to come there travelling easily and be delivered as late as the jockey dares. If the race were a mile Kameko would be odds-on and rightly so. As much as English King has a lot going for him, I cannt get away from the fact that I think he beat slower horses last time. Slow horses make good horses look VERY good and Kameko is going to be the fastest horse he has faced.

    Kameko may not quite get home but I would rather be on one with some class and speed because being on one who is sure to stay is of little help when they are a good way back coming into the final furlong.
     
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  14. Cyclonic

    Cyclonic Well Hung Member

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    I'm a novice here, but with what looks a weak, open race, the state of the track come race time, might have a huge impact on the outcome. I can see a heap of colts hitting the wall, especially if the rain does come.
     
    #334
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  15. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    They can make average horses look good as well, especially if the winner has a decent turn of foot. But if they are with slow times I don't take much notice of the form. If they can produce a good turn of foot in a fast overall time and win easily then I take more notice of impressive looking winners.
    As a 2000 Gns winner in a good time Kameko must be the fastest horse English King has come up against (over 8f). If Kameko stays a truly run 12f, he is a cert but I can't see it. The only way he can win (I think) is if there is no pace in the race
     
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  16. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Mogul is on the drift out to 8/1 on betfair, no chance hes going off favourite. English King solid at 7/2. Russian Emperor will start 2nd fav.

    It looks like Moore has been put away, apparently Joseph Obrien fancies Russian Emperor and no one knows their horses better than him.
     
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  17. Janabelle13

    Janabelle13 Well-Known Member

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    Personally I think its anyone's Derby this year.
     
    #337
  18. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Thinking more about the Oaks, if this was a normal year, Love would have been a cert, Frankly Darling would have run her Ribblesdale race and everything that she done wrong would have cost her against the professional Love. With the extra month and with them being able to get that 3rd race into her, she might just be ready for it. I'd say she's odds on to be the best horse in the race long term, it's just a question of if she's ready in time as we saw in the case of Cracksman who wasn't but went on to be the best horse in that Derby. Frankly Darling has a big engine and if she has learned from Ascot she should have every chance, can see the betting being very close between the 2 by the off, and Frankly Darling could even start fav.

    Its a strange one with Kameko, after winning the Guineas you are almost obliged to run, how do you not run him, but deep down they know he isn't a 12f horse. The Guineas form has been questioned by some, 114 bandied about re Pinatubo. Both Witchita and Pinatubo were beaten by a Newcastle handicap winner at Ascot, and Juan Elcano also reportedly let the form down in the Hampton Court. Not sure how Kameko running 3L below that form makes him a good thing here, bit of consistency needed I think.

    Roaring Lion didn't have the speed to win the Racing Post or the Guineas but he was beaten by Dee Ex Bee in a poor Derby, a horse he wouldn't come off the bridle against at 10f or shorter. Kameko looks even more unlikely to stay.

    Like many I've been against English King all along based on the price and Ed Walker factor, but many contenders have dropped out, the main one being Military March who would have had ideal conditions and was crying out for the trip. Now its the night before and you are getting 7/2 against what appears to be very few serious contenders. Imo the main danger Russian Emperor has no gears, and English King should probably be 2/1,struggling to see how he doesn't win this.
     
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    Last edited: Jul 3, 2020
  19. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Looks like Gosden has the same idea, very interesting to see him pitched into the Derby on only his second start, obviously hes not considered a win contender but it suggests they think he could be a Leger horse, and I wouldnt be surprised to see him dropped out and staying on into 5th or 6th past beaten horses tomorrow. He has been nibbled in the last 24 hours for the Leger and only a few firms left at 20/1.

    John Gosden, trainer of Worthily
    He's a horse we've always liked and won well over a mile and a quarter at Newbury. He may be a bit like the rest of his family who ran in the Derby but were more Leger types. He's short on experience as ideally we would have got another run into him but there was no racing in April or May when that would have been in the plans.
     
    #339
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  20. hawkeye

    hawkeye Well-Known Member

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    paul kealy put him up on what a shout for it
     
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