Off Topic Corona virus

Discussion in 'Leeds United' started by lifecheshirewhite, Feb 25, 2020.

  1. lufctommo

    lufctommo Active Member

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    Hi all, I've been reading this forum for a while now and always meant to sign up. Maybe not the best topic to introduce myself but as someone who works for the Leeds Teaching Hospitals Trust I thought I'd just make some corrections.

    I'm not quite sure where you're getting your information from but as of this weekend there were 25 confirmed cases across the Leeds Teaching Hospitals Trust, and yes there have been confirmed deaths. I haven't seen the figures recently so I can't say how much that has risen in the last few days. As you say the hospitals are in fact quiet this week. There are very few visitors and elective surgery is being cancelled. People seem to be staying away from a&e as well. This is the calm before the storm.

    I agree some of the coverage has caused hysteria but I'm not sure what your point about "some have died showing symptoms of the virus" is. Only those who have tested positive for the virus are counted in the stats so they're not just adding people on who have had symptoms.
     
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  2. Eireleeds1

    Eireleeds1 Well-Known Member

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    Welcome aboard Tommo and thanks for giving a first hand view of the facts. I’ve an additional point and would be interested to get your view. We all know lots of people who for example through the years have had heart stints fitted. I’d imagine figure would be in the thousands every week. If for example the fitting of these have to be suspended because hospitals become over stretched, how many additional deaths could that lead to and those figures wouldn’t be on the corona virus list but indirectly would have been caused by it
     
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  3. lufctommo

    lufctommo Active Member

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    That is a very good question. Not just with the delaying of surgery but also people coming in with other medical emergancies, heart attacks, trauma etc who won't be able to receive the level of care they usually would. Especially those with respiratory problems who need invasive ventilation. I don't think we'll know the full consequences for a while, until we can compare the data to expected mortality rates etc.
     
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  4. 2 pennth

    2 pennth Well-Known Member

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    Welcome aboard Tommo
    We need someone on board who can give us facts rather than fiction
    Hope you enjoy your time on the board, but whatever dont let the rather unsavoury comments that are passed from time to time get you down, in particular some which have been passed today.
     
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  5. Eireleeds1

    Eireleeds1 Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for that and I’ve one more. It’s been said to me that plastic containers such as drums of milk can be infected for up to three days with the virus so all products bought in supermarkets should be wiped down with surgical wipes as soon as we bring them home
     
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  6. lufctommo

    lufctommo Active Member

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    The virus can stay on hard surfaces for at least a few days in the right conditions but I'm not sure which type of surfaces are the best/worst. Realistically we can't avoid touching everything though so that's where washing hands comes in. It's worth saying that the more you're exposed to the more severe the symptoms can be so even if you don't manage to completely avoid it, reducing the amount you're in contact with can make a big difference.
     
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  7. ellandback

    ellandback Well-Known Member
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    Welcome Tommo
     
    #947
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  8. ristac

    ristac Well-Known Member
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    Welcome to the forum mate <ok>
     
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  9. Gessa

    Gessa Well-Known Member

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    Prince Charles is isolating at Balmoral with Covid-19.

    Prince Andrew is at Winsor with Jennifer-14
     
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  10. 2 pennth

    2 pennth Well-Known Member

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    Bet he's giving her it then and plenty of it
     
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  11. milkyboy

    milkyboy Well-Known Member

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    Unlike the others I can’t offer a warm welcome to Tommo. Who des he think he is coming in here with his fancy facts and educated opinion?

    if he has indeed been a ‘lurker’ then he has no excuse for not recognising that this is a place for Charlatans and bullshitters. There’s no place for his like on here.

    If I’m mistaken and tommo wishes to clarify that his ‘facts’ were actually sourced from a YouTube video or some deranged twitterati conspiracy theorist... then obviously he’s welcome to join the gang.
     
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  12. FORZA LEEDS

    FORZA LEEDS Well-Known Member

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    Like I said to 2p, it’s called dark humour, or good old fashioned banter. In fact it's just the kind of thing Glory excels at (and is very good at tbf) So if you're offended by it I'm surprised you want your mate back here so much.
     
    #952
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  13. Eireleeds1

    Eireleeds1 Well-Known Member

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    Has anyone seen trumps latest speech from yesterday. Apparently crisis will be over in two weeks in time for Easter Sunday and churches will be full again. That’s a relief for the us citizens I’d imagine. I think we’ll be a little behind them I’d imagine
     
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  14. ristac

    ristac Well-Known Member
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    Ahh that is what else 2p took offence to, I thought Jammy was saying what he did tongue in cheek
     
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  15. Eric Le Merde

    Eric Le Merde Well-Known Member

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    Good to hear from you Tommo, careful with the truth though mate, it confuses some posters if it isn't from the right source. <whistle>
     
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  16. OLOF

    OLOF Well-Known Member

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    I got my information from a senior nurse on Monday evening. she confirmed what two of my friends partners who work at Jimmys said last week.
    On Monday my, already seriously ill mother, came down with a very high temperature, and excruciating pain, my brother called me as I was working nearby to let me know what was happening he phoned for an ambulance, they turned up pretty quickly with all the gear on like something out of a SciFi movie, fair enough no problem with that in the current climate.
    We followed in the car and when we got there they were concerned that it was the virus they were all masked up and said they need to do some tests and she would be going on a 'virus ward,' their words which, with hindsight wasn't very clever in my opinion, they rushed her away without us even talking to her or to say goodbye, cut a long story, it turns out she had been given, either by her doctor or the pharmacist the wrong medication which she takes daily and had a severe reaction.
    We stayed behind a while to find out what was happening and the senior nurse told us she would be tested and she would be staying overnight, she said she would contact us and keep us informed, this is when I asked if they had any patients with the virus and she said no only people being tested for it like my mother.
    During her stay on the viral ward my mother was tested and was told it would be three hours or so before they could be sure, in the meantime in the early hours of the morning she needed her medication as she was in pain, she asked the nurses who said they would sort it, one hour passed by, nothing, she asked again, another hour nothing, by this time she wanted to go home to get her medication this is when they decided, because she was making a right fuss, to give her some painkillers, they put her in a taxi at 4am and sent her home, the useless bastards
    She didn't have the virus by the way, but if any of the other people on the ward did, she, and maybe others who also didn't, may have it now<doh>
    Obviously, the NHS do some great work, but they also do a lot of ****e work, especially at jimmys where I have seen how bad they are, they let my father and mother in law die in my opinion.
    twelve years ago a heart surgeon saved my mother in laws life and gave her another 10 years when he turned up at the LGI on his day off to visit a sick friend, he was curious at the fuss that was going on, most of her family turned up obviously upset, he asked a nurse what was going on, they had already told us she would not make it she suffered an aortic dissection or something whilst shopping, he went in to see her spoke to her, asked her to squeeze his hand to see how strong she was, and then spoke to my brother in law and said I can save your mother, he did after an eight hour operation, unbelievable.
    The point i'm making making about people who have died and had symptons of the virus is, was it the cancer, the heart attack, the bus that ran over them, or the virus?
    Good to have a Doctor in the house btw<ok>
     
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    Last edited: Mar 25, 2020
  17. OLOF

    OLOF Well-Known Member

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    And just because someone comes on here for the first time and it suits your line you buy it?
     
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  18. OLOF

    OLOF Well-Known Member

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    Wakey, was the three bog rolls (flash bastard) because you had the ****s, or that you've kicked your latest squeeze to the kerb?
     
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  19. FORZA LEEDS

    FORZA LEEDS Well-Known Member

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    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51979654


    Coronavirus deaths: What we don't know - BBC News
    Nick Triggle Health correspondent @nicktriggle
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    Each day news of more deaths is a huge source of alarm to people across the country - as well as a tragedy for the families involved.

    Projections of how bad it could get have prompted strict measures to be taken, with pubs, clubs, theatres and schools closed and people told to stay at home.

    A key piece of modelling which has informed government has been done by Imperial College London.

    It suggested 500,000 could die if we do nothing, while the government's previous strategy to slow the spread was likely to lead to 250,000 deaths.

    Instead, it is hoped the steps which have been taken, which are essentially about suppressing the virus, will limit deaths to 20,000.

    In an appearance before the Health Select Committee in March, Sir Patrick Vallance, the government's chief scientific adviser, said that would be "horrible", but still a "good outcome" given where we are.

    He likened it to those killed by flu, citing a figure of 8,000 deaths a year.

    Could these deaths be prevented?
    But what is not clear - because the modellers did not map this - is to what extent the deaths would have happened without coronavirus.

    Of course, this will never truly be known until the pandemic is over, which is why modelling is very difficult and needs caveats.

    Every year more than 500,000 people die in England and Wales - factor in Scotland and Northern Ireland, and the figure is around 600,000.

    The coronavirus deaths will not be in addition to these, as statistician Prof Sir David Spiegelhalter, an expert in public understanding of risk at the University of Cambridge, explains.

    "There will be substantial overlap in these two groups — many people who die of Covid [the disease caused by coronavirus] would have died anyway within a short period."

    The flu comparison
    In contrast, the figures put forward for flu - 8,000 deaths a year - is different.

    It is actually the number of deaths over and above what you would expect to happen in any given year.

    In fact, it is perhaps a little low. Public Health England uses a figure of 17,000, based on recent winters.

    Many more actually die with flu, but this figure gives you an indication of how many more die because of flu.

    In comparison, the daily coronavirus death figures and the modelling by Imperial, simply look at those who die with the virus.

    They do not tell us is to what extent coronavirus contributed to the death.

    How many extra deaths could there be?
    A team from University College London (UCL) has attempted to unpick this by looking at the expected number of deaths you would normally see, and then mapped out how many extra deaths coronavirus could cause.

    The paper, which has not been peer reviewed yet, shows those from the at-risk groups - the over 70s and people with health conditions - have a 4.4% risk of dying in the next year regardless of coronavirus.

    That is to say, one in 20 would not be expected to be alive one year later.

    To factor in the impact of coronavirus, there are two variables which are as yet unknown - how much it increases the risk of death by, and how many people become infected.

    If it turns out to be as deadly as flu and just 1% of people are infected (the upper limit of what we should be aiming for given the measures in place according to researchers), the number of extra deaths will be under 1,400.

    But many believe it will be more virulent than flu, so the researchers mapped different scenarios.

    If it was five times as deadly - a "reasonable" estimation, researchers said - there could be 6,900 excess deaths.

    If 10% of the population were to be infected with more relaxed measures, the excess death figures would increase 10-fold. But these are just models.

    What is needed now that the virus is spreading, is for researchers to get good access to hospital data and in particular intensive care records, so they can more accurately work out the impact the pandemic is having, says Amitava Banerjee, who is leading the UCL research.

    Why better intelligence is needed
    Prof Robert Dinwall, an expert in sociology from Nottingham Trent University, says it is also important to consider "the collateral damage to society and the economy".

    He cites the mental health problems and suicides linked to self-isolation, heart problems from lack of activity and the impact on health from unemployment and reduced living standards.

    The economic hit is something University of Bristol researchers have now looked at. Their conclusion? Trashing the economy costs lives.

    They found the benefit of a long-term lockdown in reducing premature deaths is outweighed by the cost in terms of lost life expectancy from a prolonged economic dip.

    And the tipping point is a 6.4% decline in the size of the economy - on par with what happened following the 2008 financial crash - which leads to a loss of three months of life on average across the population because of factors from declining living standards to poorer health care.

    Next steps
    There are, of course, other factors at play here. Left unchecked - or not checked enough - the deaths would come very quickly.

    This in itself would overwhelm the health service, putting even more lives at risk, because care may not be available for others whether that is a heart attack victim, a stroke patient or simply someone who has had a fall.

    But, given that suppressing the virus is almost certainly not going to make it go away, and the prospects of a vaccine being available in the near future are considered slim, at some point the government is going to have to weigh up the full benefits and costs, to help it decide on the next step.

    Seeing the full picture will be essential in getting those calls right.
     
    #959
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  20. Eric Le Merde

    Eric Le Merde Well-Known Member

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    No I don't "buy" a line from anybody but when it is the same information given by the vast majority of people then I do tend to consider that there maybe an element of truth in it and I don't immediately dismiss it because it doesn't fit my agenda, as some do.
     
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