1. Log in now to remove adverts - no adverts at all to registered members!

Coventry Stakes Royal Ascot 15th June 2021

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by Grendel, May 25, 2021.

  1. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2018
    Messages:
    2,737
    Likes Received:
    1,798
    Recently we had the Marble Hill at the Curragh and some smart horses have landed the contest over the years. Caravaggio landed it for Aidan O'Brien in 2016 before going on to land The Coventry at the Royal Meeting. O'Brien senior has landed the race plenty of times but his big hope for today was pulled out as he was running a temperature and it was Castle Star who was left to win nicely for Fozzy Stack on the soft surface.

    Castle Star was promoted to favourite for the Coventry Stakes in the aftermath and he has now run four times, winning twice and was narrow second on the other two occasions. This was a Group 3 he landed today but I don't feel it was a strong renewal and at 7/1 for the Coventry I feel there is no value, considering that I backed Caravaggio at about the same odds in his season.

    Castle Star's main opposition was going to be Cadamosto, who had been favourite for the Coventry for a while before today's race. This colt has already become something of a standing joke based on the number of times he has been entered, only to be pulled out late on. He missed a race in March because he was off his feed, then in April he missed another race because he was off his feed. On the 10th of April he finally did run and won well by more than three lengths from Silver Surfer. A week later he was due back out but, you've guessed it, he was off his feed again. They tried again on the 3rd of May but this time he was withdrawn because of unsuitable ground and yet again on 16th May he was withdrawn because the ground was deemed unsuitable. I was pretty convinced that he would be pulled out today because of the ground being soft again but lo and behold the colt was found to be running a temperature this time.

    I can't say I have seen a horse who has been pulled out as many times and for such varying reasons. He must be the most fragile horse in training. I wonder if the might have raced him today despite the ground because they needed to get a race into him before Ascot? Either way, he clearly looks the dodgiest of ante-post prospects. His form looks promising but with a little over 3 weeks to the race it might be tight to squeeze him into a suitable stepping stone to the Coventry.

    Richard Hannon's Gisburn is next in the betting on most lists. The son of Ribchester was only 4th on debut but like a lot of Hannon's he came on a lot from that and pelted home by more than 6 lengths over 6F at Newbury. That represented a promising move in the right direction and gave hope of more to come. It is hard to say if he beat a lot there but on RPR he is 9 lbs behind Castle Star on 95 to 104.

    I actually prefer another of Richard Hannon's and that is Lusail. The son of Mehmas was not fancied on debut and to confound matters he was slowly away and in arrears. He looked to have plenty to do from the back in that York race but he conjured a good run to come thought and win with something in hand. He looks sure to improve and he holds an entry in the Railway Stakes later in the season.

    Lusail is entered in a couple of races on Thursday and Friday, at Sandown and Pontefract and if he progresses the way I expect him to and wins again I am sure he will be cut for the Coventry. He has won at 6F but the Sandown race is over 5F, while the Ponty race is at 6F. The ground at Pontefract is soft and perhaps the Sandown race may be a better option.

    I am not sure why Tenebrism and Elliptic are widely quoted for the Coventry, as they are both fillies and that would seem rather odd to me.

    With a lack of feasible candidates at this stage I felt Lusail might be the one to come on from his debut and perhaps be more streetwise now. He may not be great odds for his next race, so at 14/1 I thought he was worth an interest for the Coventry. If he gets beaten next time it's probably game over but I would rather lose a little at 14/1, than a lot at a shorter price and I will have had an interest for his next race. The plan is to play as soon as he is declared for whichever race this week.

    Coventry Stakes Lusail 14/1
     
    #1
    Pilgrim, Bustino74 and Ron like this.
  2. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2011
    Messages:
    5,202
    Likes Received:
    1,953
    Good write up and seeing where Lusail came from I can understand your choice. Given that, Gisburn seemed to arouse more adulation with his victory.

    I have hopes for Berkshire Shadow, who ran a similar race to Lusail but not quite as spectacular. Will be also interesting to see who Mr Boughey runs in the race as he just about seems to win one of every three 2yo races he has runners in.
     
    #2
    Grendel likes this.
  3. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2018
    Messages:
    2,737
    Likes Received:
    1,798
    Lusail was not in the field of eight for the National Stakes. The race sees George Boughey's Navello top rated on RPR's after winning his last three races. Hannon relies on Hotline Bling, who was 3rd on debut at Windsor before winning at Thirsk next time. To my eyes the son of Cotai Glory did not really need to progress much from his first start to score by a neck as 6/4 Fav in his second race and he will need a significant improvement to win the National.
     
    #3
  4. Pilgrim

    Pilgrim Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 10, 2018
    Messages:
    2,941
    Likes Received:
    3,350
    16/1 with Lads, Coral and Unibet.
     
    #4
    Grendel likes this.
  5. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2018
    Messages:
    2,737
    Likes Received:
    1,798
    Lusail has been declared for the 7.10 Pontefract on Friday. There is a field of 7 runners and I imagine he is going to be favourite assuming the meeting goes ahead.

    I've played with Ladbrokes at 16/1 for the Coventry in the hope that he wins an shortens.

    Gisburn appears the first choice of Hannon's in the Coventry betting but he does not hold the Group 2 Railway Stakes entry that Lusail has in late June.

    Fingers crossed.

    Coventry Stakes Lusail 16/1
     
    #5
  6. Pilgrim

    Pilgrim Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jan 10, 2018
    Messages:
    2,941
    Likes Received:
    3,350
    The truth is that my idea (and on the basis that I don't know much about the Flat) was to bet very little on Ascot, but I follow you without hesitation on this one.
     
    #6
  7. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2018
    Messages:
    2,737
    Likes Received:
    1,798
    Royal Ascot is one tough meeting to get winners at. I tend to look ante-post for 2YO races to try to get a bet at decent odds and not risk too much money. The Coventry was the only one this year where I thought there was potential value to be had.

    The Albany has seen impressive fillies Flotus and Hello You from the Crisford and Beckett stables but at 5/1 and 7/1 I think they are tight enough. Aidan usually has something that pops up for this race and I will probably wait longer on the Albany before playing.

    I think it is key to regard the Royal Ascot Handicap races as low stakes/fun investments.
     
    #7
    Pilgrim likes this.
  8. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2011
    Messages:
    5,202
    Likes Received:
    1,953
    Boughey's 2yos have been going in left, right and centre and the one who looked impressive was Cachet, who's a filly by Aclaim out of Teofilo mare. Of course she could go for the Albany but may go for the Queen Mary. Hello You certainly looks smart.
     
    #8
  9. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2018
    Messages:
    2,737
    Likes Received:
    1,798
    Lusail was ominously weak before his race and never looked likely. Even allowing for the softer ground it just didn't look good and for now he looks a bust. Sorry guys.:emoticon-0149-no:
     
    #9
  10. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2018
    Messages:
    2,737
    Likes Received:
    1,798
    No word of where Lusail goes now but it won't be the Railway Stakes. The Racing Post gave him 83 for his second run, which was exactly the same as his first. I would say that was atypical of a Hannon youngster from run 1 to 2. The third from his first race has just won at Haydock, although he made quite heavy weather of beating the Johnston trained runner up, with the pair seven lengths clear.

    Anyway, the reason for backing Lusail was that I thought Castle Star should be opposed at his odds. That has now proved to have been justified because Castle Star is not coming over for the Coventry.

    Trainer Fozzy Stack states that Brexit and Covid have made travelling an issue, but that doesn't seem to have stopped the O'Briens coming across, and he may wait until later in the season to take Castle Star over to the UK. The Morny and Middle Park were mooted as potential targets and he feels the horse may be a Guineas horse in time. If those are his targets though, the Guineas is highly unlikely, as we have seen year after year for a generation now.

    Maybe Wesley Ward has scared the Stack team. His colt Kaufymaker has come from nowhere to be hot favourite for the Coventry now at 7/2. I feel that the Ward horses do best at 5F and the stats back that up. Kaufymaker won a four and a half furlong race at Keeneland by just over six lengths but that is a very short trip and it was on dirt. The runner-up was last of seven runners next time and all the other runs from Kaufymaker's race have resulted in unplaced efforts. I see zero value in Kaufymaker at 7/2 with stats against him and so many different circumstances upcoming.

    I am going to have a good look and come up with something to oppose Kaufymaker with. He may be the next Dayjur but I would imagine layers will be taking him on come the day and it is surely hype for now.
     
    #10

  11. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2011
    Messages:
    28,577
    Likes Received:
    10,380
    Gisburn would get my vote here with a saver on Ebro River if it comes up juicy.

    My mum would be on Amalfi Coast purely because of the name <ok>
     
    #11
    Bustino74 likes this.
  12. Dancingbraveforever

    Dancingbraveforever Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 10, 2011
    Messages:
    1,184
    Likes Received:
    566
    Kaufymaker is a filly so will have the allowance.
     
    #12
    As We Know likes this.
  13. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2012
    Messages:
    39,879
    Likes Received:
    54,485
    Yeah i was looking to get on Kaufymaker for the Albany last week but she wasnt in the betting, surprised to see them go for the Coventry, big statement and she will handle 6f no problem. Market fully aware tho, Campanelle was 13/2 last year, Ruthin 5/2 this year. Bringing over 2 monster fillies but hard to argue they are any value at the odds. Both his fillies this year would prefer fast ground, probably unbeatable if the ground is fast truth be told. The Queen Mary filly had a slightly iffy head carriage in the straight and i think Kaufymaker is the best of them.
     
    #13
  14. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2018
    Messages:
    2,737
    Likes Received:
    1,798
    How many fillies have won the Coventry. Probably few have tried and it's a bold move I would have thought. The trainer says she has taken to turf well but that 6th furlong always puts me off the Ward runners.
     
    #14
  15. Dancingbraveforever

    Dancingbraveforever Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    May 10, 2011
    Messages:
    1,184
    Likes Received:
    566
    If Wesley Ward is running a filly against the colts, I'm pretty sure it's because he thinks she has a heck of a chance.
     
    #15
  16. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2011
    Messages:
    5,202
    Likes Received:
    1,953
    Very few I'd say but although I can't remember them I'd say Lady Americus and Lady Josephine were fillies. In those days there was no Queen Mary Stakes (or Albany for that matter: which is very recent).
     
    #16
  17. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2011
    Messages:
    5,202
    Likes Received:
    1,953
    But they need it.
     
    #17
  18. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2011
    Messages:
    5,202
    Likes Received:
    1,953
    Looks a good colt. Should easily get 8f.
     
    #18
  19. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Oct 1, 2018
    Messages:
    2,737
    Likes Received:
    1,798
    I was torn between Berkshire Shadow and Gisburn today. As I mentioned in my preview, the Balding horse was twice the odds of Gisburn, who had finished behind him. In the end I was beguiled by Gisburn's six length win at Newbury and did him with Berkshire Shadow as my forecast bet.

    Gisburn was woeful today and the Racing Post gave him running a stone below his previous race. Considering that today's 1-2-3 went up by 24 lbs, 30 lbs and 14 lbs, the Hannon horse picked the wrong day to be reversing by 14 lbs.

    Dhabab was interfered with to a certain extent but it's stretching the imagination to think he could have won today. The winner came from further back than him and won going away.

    I thought Ebro River should have run in the Norfolk and I think Palmer made a balls of it running here. He briefly led but didn't last home. Poor placing of a horse who has looked so good at 5F. Palmer will need to think it through better. A few pundits mentioned today that they though Ebro River would have been better at the minimum trip.

    Wesley Ward was very bold in running a filly in the Coventry and once again his 2YO didn't seem to last over 6F. They seem trained to ping over 4 and a half furlongs and if it was simply a question of able to take that to the UK and translate it to 6F easily the UK horses need not bother to turn up. She was poor value ante-post.

    Tolstoy looked to hold a chance at one stage but he weakened badly in the final furlong. Frankie had described him as immature in the minutes before the race.
     
    #19

Share This Page