Off Topic Covid 19 restrictions have done one

I might be able to get back to Britain now. Although they'll probably move the goalposts as they usually do!

 

Board them up to in relation to you.

 

I coughed last night.
Am I dead?

 

Have they dropped yet?

 

I can throw them over my shoulder like a regimental soldier

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-60126783

 

BOB SEELY MP: Why we have been failed by Covid lockdown modellers
49mins ago
Regensburg and Leibniz university academics refuted the Imperial study's claims that NPIs imposed by 11 European countries saved millions of lives. They said 'their methods involve circular reasoning' and that the UK's lockdown was 'superfluous and ineffective'.

There's a growing body of work which is, frankly, taking apart Imperial's study.

Remember, we have spent £370 billion on lockdown. We shut schools because we were scared the kids would come home and infect older people, who would then die.

Well, a paper in the BMJ published last March found 'no evidence of an increased risk of severe Covid 19 outcomes'.

We shut down society and schools, doing extraordinary harm to the lives of people — especially young people.

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I’m not a lockdown sceptic, as Professor Ferguson casually described some of his critics, but I’m becoming so. And do you know why? Because I read the evidence
I'm not a lockdown sceptic, as Professor Ferguson casually described some of his critics, but I'm becoming so. And do you know why? Because I read the evidence.

Swedish chief epidemiologist Anders Tegnell has said of Imperial's work that 'the variables… were quite extreme… We were always quite doubtful'. While former chief epidemiologist Johan Giesecke said Ferguson's model was 'almost hysterical'.

In July 2021, Professor Ferguson said we could hit 200,000 daily cases — that's where the crystal ball starts to fail. We got nowhere near 100,000.

He blamed the UEFA Football Championship for messing up his modelling because — shock horror — during the competition people went to pubs to watch matches and when the tournament finished, they didn't. That seems to be the fundamental problem. Where reality meets models, reality steamrollers models. They cannot cope with the complexity of real life.

This winter, Imperial, the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and others predicted between 3,000 (in the best case scenario) and 5,000 daily Covid deaths. They were hopelessly inaccurate.

Dr Clive Dix, a former vaccine taskforce head, said: 'It's bad science, and I think they're being irresponsible... this is just headline grabbing.'

But the tide is turning.

Oncology professor Angus Dalgleish describes [Professor] Ferguson's modelling as 'lurid predictions' and 'spectacularly wrong'.

The great Carl Heneghan, another scientist known for his fairness of comment, says 'all ministers see now is the worst case scenario'. While Professor Brendan Wren adds 'dodgy data and flawed forecasts have become the hallmark of much of the scientific establishment' — what a damning quote.

I agree. What's the result of all this? The result, as UCL's Professor Francois Balloux notes, is a 'loss of trust in government and public institutions for crying wolf'. That's just it.

In the Army we call it the 'most dangerous course of action' versus the 'most likely course of action'.

Scientists and health professionals have taken the most dangerous course of action and politicians and some sections of the media have presented it as the most likely course of action.

Politicians said follow the science as a way of shutting down debate, while the defensiveness of public health decision-making only ever cost other people's health and livelihoods.

Meanwhile, the BBC and The Guardian newspaper have been salivating on state control and a tsunami of hysteria.

Thank God for The Spectator, The Telegraph and, yes, the Daily Mail for keeping alive freedom of speech and putting an alternative which is now being vindicated.

Yes, lockdown was understandable at first but its continuation after that first summer is proving to have been a flawed decision.

So I've got a question for Professor Ferguson and the doomsday modellers: Why are so many of your fellow academics disputing your work and your findings?

To the BBC: why did you so rarely challenge Ferguson, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) or independent SAGE? Why did you allow yourself to become the propaganda arm of the lockdown state?

To government: how could we have been so blinkered to think that following the science meant shutting down scientific debate?

Why did we never use other data sets in context with the British people? Why did we think it was in our nation's interest to create a grotesque sense of fear to manipulate behaviour?

Twice in 20 years we have made errors of judgment using modelling. Never again should government rely on this glorified guesswork.

I'm sure Imperial and all these other people do the best they can — I'm very happy to state that publicly. But why has so much of their work been described — in the words of other academics — as 'unvalidated', 'flawed', 'not fit for purpose', 'improbable', 'almost hysterical', 'overconfident', 'lurid', 'inflated', 'pessimistic', 'spectacularly wrong' and 'fraudulent'?

Bob Seely is MP for the Isle of Wight. This is an edited extract of his speech last week during a debate about scientific modelling in the pandemic.

 

Some of the presented figures will rise,although in reality, nothing will change.

 

Well, you could rely on that bloke who isn't a medical doctor to give you his uninformed and non-expert opinion, or you could try real doctors e.g.
https://www.immunology.org/coronavi...nt-resources/covid-immunity-infection-vaccine
https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/hea.../covid-natural-immunity-what-you-need-to-know
https://covid.joinzoe.com/post/covid-vaccine-natural-immunity-difference
Just a thought.

 

Well said. I 1000% agree

 

From tomorrow

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/19/plan-a-new-covid-rules-england

 

"Epidemiologists and modellers are like historians, great at explaining what happened in the past but absolutely no ****ing use at predicting the future."

Posted 16th Jan

Reasons:
Imperfect model
Imperfect data
Fear

As Clausewitz said: Everyone has a world model and it is always imperfect and always out of date

 

Anyone else not had it yet?

Have come into close contact with it loads - particularly since September - but it’s never got me. Regular testing by all in the household leaves me fairly confident I’ve not had it asymptomatically.

Only had my first torture stick at the end of November too, and second today. No booster. (And what a ****ing waste of time that’s turned out to be )

 

Did anybody actually have to show a covid pass anyway ? I certainly didn't

 

I haven’t had it, although I’m quite antisocial

 

I’ve remained clean throughout,

 

I've not had it and quite surprised, I travel all over for work via planes, trains and underground's etc, close family members who I live with have had it plus a fair number of people I've come into contact via work etc have. Maybe I'm just lucky, the jabs are doing the job or its a mixture of both

 

I had it twice, the first time I was pretty bad with flu like symptoms but could otherwise operate ok, the second I was lying on the couch struggling to breathe for a week. I couldn't smell or taste, which I found pretty weird, but the worst was the coughing, I coughed so much that it hurt to breathe when I could and there was blood coming up in my mucus because my throat was so raw.

Hopefully that's the last time I get it. Anybody who thinks the human immune system can fight this on its own is kidding themselves.

 

Fingers crossed you've had your fair share, I can't even say I've maybe had it but had no symptoms as I test so often to travel etc it would have picked it up