Daily Thread Thursday 23rd May

Been waiting for this one, Radio Ga Ga 3:20 Goodwood 12/1 outsider of the field. Ed McMahon waited for the ground to soften.

 

Goodwood 2.35 Aussie Lyrics 7/1

 

2.35 Goodwood

Swift Bounty 5/1

I am very sweet on the chances of Alan Jarvis's Swift Bounty who has shown an awful lot of promise in his 4 runs to date and this 3 year old is very unlucky not to have won at least one of them. After making a highly encouraging debut at Haydock back in September when staying on to good effect over 6f he was definitely unlucky not to win on his 2nd start at Kempton a month later when going down by a nose in a race that has worked out really. Upped to 7f, Swift Bounty sat in behind the leaders before being switched very sharply by Mick Murphy with about 2f to go where he collided with another runner before pressing the winner Birdoliver all the way to the line where he was denied by the narrowest of margins. Given the deficit of defeat, had he not bumped his opponent I think he would have probably gotten up to win but it was a superb run in a defeat and an effort which strongly suggested that he would be better over further. The form of that race looks very strong with the winner subsequently beaten by narrow margins in Group 3s having been sold to the US whilst the 3rd Jodies Jem won his next 2 starts including in a handicap off a mark of 75 and he was last seen going down by a neck off a mark of 80 in January. Swift Bounty's final start as 2 year old came a month later over that same C+D when filling the runner up spot once again with another really good run. A reluctant leader and pulling quite hard for the first couple of furlongs, Swift Bounty sat in 3rd when the eventual winner took up the running and he was caught a little flat footed a couple of furlongs from home when Lilac Tree injected pace off a steadily run race in what proved a race winning move. It took Swift Bounty a while to get going but he was staying on really strongly late on as he eventually finished a 0.75L beaten 2nd. The form of that race isn't overly strong but Swift Bounty made an extremely eye catching handicap debut earlier this month off his current mark of 79 where he was definitely quite unlucky.

Sent off an unfancied 33/1 shot over a mile at Ascot under today's jockey Mick Murphy, Swift Bounty was held up at the rear of the main body of the field and was quite keen early on as the race wasn't run at that quick a pace. He made some pretty smooth progress before finding a wall of horses in front of him at the 2f pole and when he looked set to make his challenge he was again blocked off at a crucial stage which ended his chance. However, he looked full of running at the finish as he picked up 4th spot with a fair amount of ease late on as he finished 3L behind the winner. That winner King Of The Danes reopposes today but he was unchallenged and allowed to dictate things off the front end and was given an excellent ride Franny Norton and with a 6lb pull today I strongly believe Swift Bounty can turn around that form. Additionally, that rival doesn't look like he'll get his own way up front today which should ensure a decent gallop which Swift Bounty should appreciate a lot more than how the race panned out 13 days ago and he should relish the step up to 9f. I think the handicapper has been lenient to have left his mark of 79 unchanged and given that he was sent off such a big price that day I expect him to come on an awful lot for what was his first start in nearly 6 months. Trainer Alan Jarvis's stable is really starting to get going lately and I think Swift Bounty will come here in really good form. The excellent Mick Murphy takes the ride and an invaluable 5lb off and he really seems to ride Goodwood well with 6 wins from just 13 rides and Swift Bounty has a lovely draw in stall 2. If getting a decent pace to aim at, I think Swift Bounty is going to take a huge amount of beating in this contest and I think trainer Alan Jarvis could have a really good day tomorrow and I wouldn't put anyone off having a bet on any of his other runners.

 

Kiyoshi is in my alerts and it will take a good one to beat it. Sky Lantern ran in and won this last year so the Hannon horse will be interesting to monitor in the market.

I've got a good strike rate with my tracker but I want to see 2/1 or better to bet in this competitive heat.

 

Seskanine was disqualified yesterday after ruining Twigline's chance of winning the race which meant the horse that probably would have won still didn't win.

Doesn't that smack of inadequate redress for the owners of the eventual second?

 

15.45 Goodwood- Elik- 10/3

Elik was unlucky not to finish closer when fourth in the Cheshire Oaks, and will take a lot beating today.

 

Also, with Seskanine DQ'd does anyone know if his handicap mark can go up? Presumably it will because it's so much better than 116 that it's farcical but that equates to a double punishment for the owners because of a jockeys over exuberance.

 

Good luck Wooly. That is a really poor listed race. Could easily be good enough. The Irish horse would interest me there because I want Alive, Alive Oh to be a worldy so her form needs to start stacking up.

 

Speaking of Alive, Alive, Oh, Magician must be a decent horse.

 

Cheers Bob- I know looking at the race- she was the only one to take my eye altho your pick is the highest rated- I just feel Elik will improve once again like she has every other run

 

Wooly - I was at Chester (weather was awful) and saw the race .. could have finished much closer with a bit more luck in running and was staying on ... I'm with you on her chances today ..fingers x'd @7/2 ...

 

I think it's fair to say that Tony McCoy is pretty keen on catching up on the winners after his injury.

He played in the PGA Championship Pro/Am yesterday at Wentworth before driving an hour and a half to Huntingdon to lift home Salpierre.He then made the two hour trip to Worcester for the evening fixture and partnered another two winners.

Looks like he bypassed the social niceties of the banquet and prizegiving...more interested in a nineteenth title than the nineteenth hole.

Dedicated to the point of obsession.

 

14:10 Wetherby - Moon Melody e/w

(Ladies race at Wetherby is a difficult one to bet on, but, anyhow, will have an e/w punt on this well-bred son of Montjeu. Will appreciate the conditions, and it remains to be seen if Miss Joanna Mason can do the horse justice. Good speed figure LTO in 27f chase at Sedgefield on similar ground; now reverts back to a marathon hurdle. Only managed to get 9/1; better prices available with others who I do not have an account with).

GL everyone! Chicken Masala, etc., for lunch today at our 'Indian'!

 

Fingers crossed buddy

 

1/2 and 4/7 available. What a ridiculous price. How on Earth can the bookies justify that? Needless to say no bet. Mildenhall, on the other hand, is 6/1 and looks interesting a that price each way. I'll have a bet on that.

edit: I've had another look and i'm not bothering to bet in this race after all. Too many unknowns and I still think it'll take a proper horse to beat the favourite.

 

Well done Bob on your 14/1 effort yesterday... Very nice indeed...

I wouldn't be too bothered about a 1/2 shot today after your selections for the week... Top stuff...



I on the other hand will stick to my golf bets and day job...

 

Which sums him up perfectly...

 

On the topic of AP McCoy what are they doing in the 5.05?

He rides for David O'Meara which is rare in itself so you'd think they thought it had a chance. However, if they fancied it I can't see how the yard wouldn't have backed it down from 8/1. This horse is definitely capable of winning a maiden hurdle based on his ability over the bigger obstacles. I think ( and I could be well wide of the mark) that the yard have booked AP so he can get used to the horse for when they send it back over fences or when they go down the handicap route.

The one I like, and again I could be well wide of the mark, is the 14/1 shot, Optical High. Sue Smith does very well at the track and she only has this horse running here today despite having 4 entered up. 39% of her horses that have run at Wetherby in the past year have atleast placed and of those 37.5% have won.

The third LTO is nothing but very encouraging. He was running in his first hurdle against horses that were clearly very decent animals. Aazif has won again and is going to be well into the 130's by the end of the Summer. Cape Explorer having run in the Triumph and before that running the now 135 rated hurdler Runswick Royal to a neck with very good horses like Doyly Carte (subsequent listed winner) back in third and the Fred Winter runner, Three Kingdoms, 4th. Forget the bumper run. Sue Smith uses bumpers for experience. I don't think wins in that sphere are a priority.

He's been given three weeks to rest up and strengthen following that debut over hurdles and I can see him running a very good race. 14/1 looks like a decent each way opportunity but it is competitive.

 

For those people of a certain age who used to watch saturday afternoons shouting at the tv with your gran, while 2 blokes in leotards grappled with each other, i found it sad to hear news of the death to Mick MacManus, he was 93...


Giant Haystacks, Big Daddy, Kendo Nagasaki, Pat Roach were all house hold names back in the day, and big entertainment for a little kid like me watching sport with my gran. Saturdays have never been the same since the chants of, easy, easy, easy rang out of the tv box...

 

My rugby coach at school nicknamed me Giant Haystacks