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Epsom Derby, Saturday 5th June 2021

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by Grendel, Apr 1, 2021.

  1. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Gosden seems to have a liking for the Dante for his possible Derby colts. I've boldened those in your list he has entered in that race. In addition he has several others who could conceivably still be entered for Epsom.

    Megallan
    Mostahdaf
    New Treasure
     
    #21
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  2. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    First up is Trawlerman

    Recent form
    6 April Pontefract 12f gf 9-5
    1/5 won by 8½L from King Frankel
    2m 35.08s (slow by 0.38s)

    10f Same course 1 hr earlier Waldkonig 9-7
    2m 9.81s (fast by 0.09s)

    Although different distance, it isn’t being too unrealistic to suggest that, over the same distance, the 3yo would have been about half a second behind the 4yo receiving 2lb. The 4yo would have been giving the 3yo 21lb under wfa conditions

    On the face of it this seems to be a decent performance by the 3yo (or a not very good performance by the 4yo, who has decent form behind Mishriff and Highest Ground)

    Other form
    On 15 Mar Trawlerman was beateb ¾L by Man Of Riddles. We know nothing of Man Of Riddles other than he is American bred and that was his debut, and hasn’t run since

    As a 2yo (5 months ago) Trawlerman met Daramethos on level terms and Daramethos won, “going away”

    On 15 April Daramethos was beaten 4l by Al Waqidi who is not entered in the Dante nor the Derby


    Initial conclusion
    Purely on form lines I can only deduce that either Trawlerman has come on considerably more than Daramethos, or that Al Waqidi should be running in the Derby
     
    #22
  3. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Rab Havlin was banned for 21 days for failing to obtain the best possible placing on his mount, ie in winning it.

    Havlin tried to come with pish about Polling Day idling in front and making it look like Stowell was finishing faster than he actually was but that seemed a fairly blatant lie. He also claimed the trainer had instructed him to use hands and heels. It seems a fairly obvious case of the trainer instructing a jockey NOT to obtain the best possible position in a race. Could you imagine the furore if it were the odds-on favourite who had failed to get up after being tenderly ridden?

    Well unless a Class 5 Novice at Lingfield has produced TWO Derby quality colts, it is safe to say that this race can be binned as a guide to this year's Derby. The third home had come in rated 70 on RPR and the others looked a bunch of slow Geldings. Unbelievably Polling Day was cut to 25/1 in some places for the Derby. God help Racing if he can win at Epsom. Scoundrels trying to make it look that Polling Day has been backed.
     
    #23
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  4. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    I see that last year's Derby 3rd Amhran Na Bhiffann finally got off the mark at Dundalk. Beaten at odds-on in a maiden last time, Aidan finally found a race for him in another Maiden at Dundalk. The Epsom hero was 1/4 Fav and scored easily from opponents whose best official ratings were 63 and 61.

    Here's hoping this year's Derby is better!
     
    #24
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  5. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Beau Nash interests me most of John Gosden's possibles. His win from Wirko got a good boost earlier this week and he is open to a lot of improvement after just one start. He has the Dante entry but I would be worried that he hold no other entries before then. His sire went Feilden/Dante/Derby and pulled off the hat trick but with it now three weeks to the Dante, it is starting to look like he will need to run fairly soon or go straight to the Dante, which would be a big ask.
     
    #25
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  6. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    I wouldn't let that put me off at 50/1. I'm sure Gosden has the facilities to get a horse race fit, and I wouldn't be too worried if he didn't win the Dante, as long as he looked as though he will reverse placings with the winner with a bit more work. At this stage, the biggest problem is not knowing which of his horses have developed into the best 3yos
     
    #26
  7. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Runs tomorrow at Sandown in the 15.35 G3 Classic Trial. 9/1 at present. Could shed a bit of light on things
     
    #27
  8. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    It is difficult to say whether the Sandown Classic Trial was a good race or not. The time was quicker than the Gordon Richards an hour before but did the front runner there simple go at a sedater pace?

    Perhaps the winner Alenquer is a good horse, in which case it has some value for the placed Godolphin horses. No excuses can be made for Yibir as he set out to make the fractions, fought back when challenged by the winner but eventually could not hold on to second from his stablemate. Could it be that Yibir simply needed the run or did he empty because he did not get home, like his sister?

    Adayar was the only runner that came out of the pack and the way he was closing at the death suggests that he will next be seen over further. The other principals that were held up at the rear made no showing whatsoever, so the Ballydoyle yardstick Sir Lucan will have provided no measure of value.

    The big gap to the rest of the field could mean that the front three are very good or it could be that this was not a good renewal, in which case it is back to the drawing board for Lone Eagle, Trawlerman and Etonian. The O’Brien family domination of the Derby market remains unchanged.
     
    #28
  9. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Another one we can forget
     
    #29
  10. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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  11. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Charlie Appleby has updated his plans for the stable Derby possibles.

    Hurricane Lane is likely to run in the Dante.

    Adayar could go Lingfield Derby Trial or if the ground is too fast there, the Dante.

    Yibir is probably going Chester Vase to get a longer trip.

    Wirko is said to be going to Chester for the Dee Stakes.

    I thought Hurricane Lane would be better suited to the Chester Vase myself.

    Van Gogh is drawing plenty of support and is now generally 7/1.
     
    #31
  12. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    We may finally see High Definition on Saturday. Aidan had mentioned the Lingfield Derby Trial as a possible starting point and the colt is indeed among the 16 entries for Saturday's race.

    You would not normally think Aidan's best Derby contender would be going to Lingfield for what is now only a Listed race and the trainer has had a torrid time of it with his colts in Britain thus far.

    High Definition will line up as the highest rated colt in the trial and will need a good show to justify his odds for Epsom.

    Van Gogh was pushed out after his Guineas run, despite doing best of Aidan's three in the race but was later nibbled back in a little.

    William Haggas's Mohaafeth jumped into 8/1 2nd Fav for the Derby after winning a Listed race by 5 lengths but I don't trust the form. It was a five runner affair and I doubt the odds-on favourite ran his race that day. Mohaafeth was beaten on his first two starts but has now won his next three. My concern is that he improved 4 lbs and 8lbs in his first two wins but then gone up a whopping 25 lbs on Racing Post ratings for his latest win. That 117 figure looks strong for a horse who had won a handicap off 85 on his previous start.

    Coincidentally, Aidan O'Brien's Sir Lamorak also won a Handicap off 85 on his latest start and is now into the reckoning for the Derby. He went up more than Mohaafeth did for his win and is now rated 101 on official figures. He goes for the Chester Vase next and we could almost be looking at two Handicap winners being first and second favourite for the Derby if High Definition fluffs his lines and Sir Lamorak wins. Where has the class element gone?
     
    #32
  13. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Now 8/1 <yikes>
     
    #33
  14. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    If any of my followers (<laugh>) had £10 on at 50/1 I suspect the best thing now would be to lay it for £50

    That's £100 profit if it wins and £40 profit if it loses

    All part of the service
     
    #34
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  15. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Kyprios is quite interesting, half brother to Free Eagle and host of other high class horses, seems to lack gears but stays very well, similar to Russian Emperor last year I suppose. He has looked in trouble a long way out in both his wins before before finishing very strongly, ran no race when 2/1 fav for the Zetland in between. One positive is that he has actually ran a race this season for Obrien which is more than can be said for most of his horses.

    Took 33s for the Derby and 33s for the Leger last night, has been cut to 25s for the Derby today as he is running in the Lingfield trial with High Definition on Saturday.
     
    #35
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  16. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Youth Spirit landed the Chester Vase and is as low as 16/1 for the Derby. You can get 25/1 but even that is nonsense. A 98 rated colt was runner up today and he was woeful the last time he ran. I think if Jim Royle had to summarise this Chester Vase he would probably say Eartha Kitt.
     
    #36
  17. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Isn't the correct (racing) term an Edgar? As in Edgar Britt, the famous Australian jockey.
     
    #37
  18. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    High Definition is out of the Lingfield Derby Trial as his "bloods were not 100%", also now drifting for the Derby as you can imagine, 3rd choice at 8/1 on betfair with Bolshoi Ballet and Mohaafeth being trimmed. I wonder how many of his have been running recently when not right and maybe didnt get the same attention to detail as the Derby favourite, something definitely wrong in Ballydoyle at the minute.

    Kyprios looks like being Obriens main runner for the Lingfield race now and is 7/2 from 14s on opening, Godolphins Adayar was well backed before the news and is 6/4 fav.
     
    #38
    Last edited: May 5, 2021
  19. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    I've heard Tomtit, William Pitt, Catcher's Mitt and a few others but Edgar Britt I have never heard of.

    High Definition misses the Lingfield Derby Trial because his "Bloods are not quite 100%"

    So it begins. Whatever happened to horses who just stayed healthy, turned up when they were supposed to and raced quite often? They seem a fragile bunch these days. They are as bad as my Nephew who had tons of days off work with headaches and sore tummies.

    This looks a ****ty Derby already and it's getting worse.
     
    #39
  20. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    I've never heard of Eartha or William used, yes Tom. But in Racing circles, since the '40s it's always been an Edgar. Got to have some pedigree.

    Youth Spirit skirted round Chester's turns and is far from forlorn hope for the Derby.
     
    #40

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