Epsom -Oaks & Derby

I could give loads of write up and spiel this week but I still think ultimately the colts renewal begs the old "what the **** is going to win this?" question.

The Oaks should have Minding in as the potential star of the show and it will be interesting seeing her up in trip. I also really like the look of SKIFFLE for Godolphin and might have a small bet. Minding will be a tough nut to crack though if she stays well.

In the Derby I'm interested to see how the three Sea The Stars colts get on.

Cloth Of Stars for Goldolphin and Andre Fabre, Across The Stars (My e/w selection) (Sir Michael Stoute), and Harzand (Dermot Weld).

The doubts over the latter seem to be about ground being too quick, so keep an eye on the forecast this week. ""We'll see what the weather does and what the likely ground conditions will be. Harzand doesn't have to have testing ground but he wouldn't want it too quick." said his trainer.

I can't stand Kieran Fallon so I've backed Across The Stars at a big price. () He looks to me like a horse that is learning all the time and one thing is for sure- he will stay. He was a tad unlucky in the Derby trial at Lingfield but I think the trip and breeding says he will improve past Humphrey Bogart and Fallon has been very complimentary about him (although take his words with a pinch of salt). At least my pocket would be happy if 51 year old wins another classic. It's probably his best chance in such an open renewal.

Cloth Of Stars has a great trainer but just doesn't wow me from what I've seen so far.

I know Andrea Atzeni sounds confident about Ulysses and I do fear him as he looks on the upgrade and has a smashing pedigree, and he's the more fancied of the two Stoute trained horses.

 

Al Ferof would win it if given a second chance.

The lack of authority in US Army Rangers performance at Chester leaves the Derby completely open looking and hence brings the e/w angle on to the AOB second strings too I guess?

 

Nice write up Toppy , I agree with your selections for the derby. I for one would love to see the master of the downs at the top table for one last hurrah. On the oaks I think Australian queen is no forlorn hope. Once again by barshiba could surprise everyone, as you may remember Arabian green won at this meeting last year before going on to win the juddmonte at a big price to everyone's surprise except mine. Soft ground will help and my old friend David Ellsworth doesn't tilt at windmills.

 

Interesting thoughts by Frankie. After giving Wings Of Desire a look at Epsom, he said. " With this one, I'm just hoping for the best, because there are possibly 10 horses which could be as good as mine.”

Stoute's "We'll hope for the best." about Across The Stars, hardly fills one with confidence either.

Frankie also mentions the good vibes they're hearing about Ulysses.

 

Get mine as well:

After the race you can even listen to 'Tales Of Brave U.....s'

 

Let's have none of naked ears on here please!

Looks like it's going to be soft. That could change things.

 

Looks like Harzand will get his ground and I think has a massive chance and 16s is huge

 

That's all Greek to me.

 

Bugger those damn Romans, to me he's always been Odysseus. Homer would be turning over in his grave.

 

The weather forecast could play a big part in what happens at Epsom at the end of the week, with the ground already reported as good to soft.

Since the Fillies’ Mile, I have been in the Minding fan club as far as The Oaks is concerned with just a slight reservation about her stamina lasting out over the trip. Her class could get her home but if the ground became any slower it would be a problem. At the odds, she is not a betting proposition even though she has nine pounds in hand of the next best filly on official ratings.

Unfortunately we are denied the clash with the other potentially top class filly and the Musidora form is represented by two of the also-rans, Harlequeen and Australian Queen. There do not appear to be any good grounds for thinking that the extra two furlongs will see either of them bloom into Classic winners.

A third of the runners come from Ballydoyle and Lingfield winner Seventh Heaven is re-opposed by Architecture, just behind on that occasion; whilst Chester winner Somehow is re-opposed by Diamonds Pour Moi, who has a length to find. Neither of those races looks like anything special.

Three of the fillies are daughters of Fastnet Rock and one of them, Turret Rocks, had a rear view of the favourite in the 1000 Guineas and it is difficult to see the extra half mile turning that around, although she could be the one for the forecast.

The dark horse in the race is Godolphin’s Skiffle, winner of a Listed race at Goodwood and stepping up in class and distance.

I do hope that Minding puts up a proper Classic display and wins like the top class filly she appeared to be at Newmarket. I am surprised that so few opponents have materialised as it looks wide open if Minding flops and this is the best black type fillies could target.

 

In the absence of a stand out candidate, The Derby will be an open betting heat and Ballydoyle could be represented by six or seven as none have given the Classic impression in any of the trials.

US Army Ranger leapt to favouritism on the strength of a debut maiden win but he only touched off the pacemaking Port Douglas in the Chester Vase when receiving four pounds. Idaho was beaten by Jim Bolger’s well-bred Moonlight Magic at Leopardstown having been beaten by Dermot Weld’s Harzand the time before. Bravery and Shogun were both down the field in the Irish 2000 Guineas and look to be up against it here. Deauville was not beaten far in the Dante and cannot be dismissed in an open race, but the ebullience of John Gosden regarding the chances of winner Wings of Desire and the services of Frankie Dettori could see him go off favourite to give the pair back-to-back Derbies.

2000 Guineas runner up Massaat comes here with a very live chance of giving Owen Burrows a Classic winning start to his career. Defeat for the Guineas winner in the Irish equivalent may have tempered enthusiasm for the Newmarket form but Paul Hanagan’s mount cannot read.

Arguably the best-bred horse in the race is Ulysses, but Sir Michael Stoute’s colt takes a big step up in class here. If he wins, how good is Imperial Aviator?

It is never wise to dismiss a raider from the Andre Fabre stable and Cloth Of Stars has done little wrong in small fields in France but does seem to spend most of his time racing against Robin Of Navan!

At this stage, I have narrowed it down to Harzand, Massaat or Wings of Desire; however, I am going to wait until the day of the race to see how the ground rides.

 

Is it definitely Edin that way?

 

Imperial Aviator was fortunate to beat Ulysses imo, apparently he needed the run and it was Ted Durcan on his back.

I done a side by side of both horses runs at Newbury, Imperial Aviators race was more strongly run with a faster overall time but Ulysses beat him comfortably up the straight, eased down a half furlong out and never asked for everything at any stage. After making the video I realised ive got Imperial Aviator with about a half length start as well.

 

Certainly agree with TopClass's opening comment on this thread. So, will have an each-way at 20/1 (or better if I can find it) on the supplemented rapidly-improving handicapper Red Verdon. Strange old Derby this.

On the Oaks, have to back two I guess, Skiffle and Turret Rocks. I think the latter is much better than her disappointing run in the 1000 Guineas?

 

It used to be old racing wisdom that the 2000 Guineas was the best form for the Derby, so is Massaat at 14/1 a wee bit over priced because of his inexperienced trainer?
I think on the form of his 2nd in the guineas when he just looked to lack a bit of finishing pace over the mile after running a bit keen early on, he has probably the best form in the race and if he was with either Stoute or OBrien he would be near favourite.

 

I suppose what is against Massaat is the female side of his pedigree. His sire Teofilo shouldn't be a blocker to this colt staying 12f round Epsom. He's by Galileo out of a Danehill mare so you'd have probably felt confident Teofilo would have got 10f+: he was favourite for the Derby when retired.

Being out of a mare by Acclamation you'd be looking for some staying blood in the mix. The grand-dam is by Law Society (positive) out of and Auction Ring (negative) mare. So there's not a lot of support to make you think he'd get 12f on most courses.

Of course he could firmly take after Galileo and Law Society but my worry would be he'll be running out of petrol at about 10f. I personally wouldn't worry about Burrows as he was alongside SMS when he prepared a few of his Derby winners and though Barry Hills didn't train a Derby winner he got very close and should be a great support to Burrows.