Unless Portugal get thrashed by France, I think they should still get one of the 4 best 3rd spots even if they lose on Wednesday.
As I said yesterday, it's very unlikely that the 3rd side in group B will get to 4 points. The only way that could happen is by Finland and Russia both avoiding defeat. Hence Portugal shouldn't need to fear a higher points tally from that team. But it's very much a possibility in groups A, C, D and E. And, where E is concerned, that possibility is increased if Poland get something tonight. Sweden already have 4 points. Someone will finish the Spain v Slovakia with at least 4 points, regardless of what Spain do tonight. But Poland can only get to 4 points if they get something tonight. If they don't, then it would need Slovakia to get something against Spain. I'd suggest Poland getting up to 4 points vs Sweden (if they're already on 1 or 3) is more likely that Slovakia getting up to 4 points vs Spain.
Group A will need Switzerland to beat Turkey - fair chance but not by any means a certainty. B - very unlikely as you say. C - Netherlands will most likely beat North Macedonia so would require a draw between Ukraine and Austria - fair chance of that. Group D is likely I admit as both Croatia and Scotland will go all out for the win - draw suits neither side so I expect a 4 point 3rd place team there. E - Spain now ahead which helps Portugal. Should they win it will require Slovakia to get a result against Spain. It's unlikely all 4 games go against Portugal. And Portugal will know what they need to do when they kick off which is always helpful.
Sidenote - The quality of refereeing and VAR use in this tournament (so far) has been very high in comparison to the PL. Great emphasis on letting the games flow and not blowing up every time there is minor contact. VAR decisions are not lingering for hours either, decisions are made quickly and the images used are clear and concise, no wonky lines.
It's not often that a team goes undefeated throughout the group stage yet finishes bottom, but I wouldn't be surprised if that happens to Spain.
Yeah if Spain draw with Slovakia and Poland beat Sweden its curtains. Spain look like we did last night on steroids; sideways, backwards and no urgency. Good game from our Jan.
The likelihood that Spain won't win the group (Sweden needs to win against Poland/draw with Spain not winning by 2+ to advance as winners) really makes a mess of things. If England were to advance as the runners up, you could have the Round of 16 looking like: Top half: Belgium, Italy, Ukraine, England, France, Spain, 2x 3rd place teams. Bottom half: Sweden, Czechia, Dutch, Germany/Portugal, Wales, Russia, 2x 3rd place teams. Definitely changes the calculus on finishing second in the group...
It's a mad group, because if it was to transpire that Poland beat Sweden, and Spain are drawing Slovakia in the last few seconds, one Spanish goal would literally be difference between them finishing 4th and 1st.
I wouldn’t go quite that far. It hasn’t been so intrusive in this tournament as it has been in the PL though. Maybe because the reffing has been better?
I think having fans helps with VAR - not because they influence it, but because there is more going on and more noise etc. In an empty stadium it is more obvious if you see what I mean. Even the commentators are learning to shut up a bit now rather than chat **** all game
This is why it's all a bit mental trying to work out what route would be better and whether we should finish second etc What will be will be, and you have to play the top sides eventually. We should be aiming to win our group and I think we will.