Match Day Thread Everton v Southampton Saturday 5th May 17:30

Good evening, I cannot remember the exact rules to which we abide when starting these threads, but like The Saints, I thought it was time to try something new, and as I have only done one match thread it is time for me to stand up and be counted and hope for some more points!

Kick off: Saturday 5th May 17:30
Location: Goodison Park
Officials:
Referee: Jonathan Moss
Assistants: Eddie Smart and Constantine Hatzidakis
Fourth official: Lee Mason
(Thanks SaintDon!)

Southampton: Mark Hughes and his merry men really looked fired up and united in our home win over Bournemouth (wasn't it a great feeling to get a win?!!). It is likely that there will not be wholesale changes to the side, however Hughes may decide to play a more cautious team away to Everton, our defence will certainly need some protection against the pace and power of their attack. I would start with Long.

Team news: Steven Davis is out injured, however everyone else is fit. Hopefully the win over Bournemouth will give the players some belief and confidence.

Win probability: 39 %
Top scorer: Charlie Austin (7)
Games since a clean sheet: 2
Games since a Saints away win: 6
Current position: 18th

Everton: Sam Allardyce may be like marmite, however after a terrible start to the season Everton have cantered away from the bottom of the table and up to a solid top half finish. They have pace and power in their attack and have become much more robust since our last meeting with them in November. The Toffees look very safe in eighth place and some old friends will be on show in their midst, including Morgan Schneiderlin and Theo Walcott who both have begun to recapture some form. It is likely they will start with a 4-2-3-1/4-3-3 hybrid formation.

Team news: Calvert-Lewin and bane Gylfi Sigurdsson are both missing along with some long-term absentees.

Win probability: 31 %
Top scorer: Wayne Rooney (11)
Games since a clean sheet: 1
Games since an Everton home win: 0
Games since an Everton home defeat: 3
Current position: 8th

Last time: 3-0

Outlook: Our biggest, and most exciting, victory of the season came against a low-on-confidence Everton side, who have transformed since then. Wayne Rooney is still a wonderful talent and Allardyce's side are likely to be dangerous from corners and set-pieces, so to ensure that the Saints' do not come unstuck they will have to wrap up the Everton attack that has goals throughout the side.

One feels that our two marauding full-backs will be important here and if we can push Everton back we are likely to create chances, however Everton are solid and will keep things tight and try to hit on the counter using the channels, yet Southampton cannot afford to sit too deep either. The best chance will be to try and control the middle and keep Everton's two shielding midfielders deep while we try and exploit the lack of pace in their defence.

I'm amazed at the win probability statistics. This is a really tough test for Southampton, who don't have a great record at Goodison, and any points are a bonus, however a win would really give us momentum and a real glimmer of hope.

Never give up hope

 

I hope you aren't busy as you will have another 2 threads to do after this

COYR!!!!!

 

If that means we stay up then I would be delighted !

 

"I cannot remember the exact rules to which we abide when starting these threads"

The rule is we f*cking win mate.

For this one it's a classic keep 'em quite for 25mins and the home crowd will turn, allowing our newly energised players to nick 3 quick goals.
We will then let 2 goals in during the first 5 mins of the second half but hold on to win. Mrs greensaint will be doing CPR by then.

Easy.

 

3 games till the end of the season and I still don't know what our best 11 is but
I have belief we can get out of this!

3 points, COYR!

 

Who are these "marauding fullbacks" of whom you speak?

 

I was still revelling in a win which judging by everyone's happiness absolutely nailed on survival...then you mention another game.

To win this would make us ecstatic and dancing in the street....to lose would drive us into the pit of misery...to draw would maintain some hope and extend the suffering.

Based on Saints in the past, which do you think will happen?

So come on, Hughesie and the boys....break with tradition and get the win early. COYR

 

P.s. Let's all pray that Bournemouth win, so that we can go into the Everton game with steely determination and belief.

 

Sorry guys......the only thing I can see us getting anything out of this is a 0-0 draw................That'll have to do us......

 

Difficult game. Everton are certainly no mugs at home & if we're to nick anything, MH will have to have EVERYONE ON THE BUTTON & for the full 95mins. Come On Saints, let's keep the momentum going. Yes, AFCB to win first & then we/I can watch the match like one of those demented cartoon characters, going mental at every misplaced pass, poor positioning, not looking up ...............

 

Here are the Betfair implied percentages.

32% Everton Win
39% Saints Win
29% Draw

Might be worth taking this impartial view into account when building up the necessary pessimistic head of steam before the game.

Vin

PS Oh and, by the way, we're favourites to beat Swansea as well.

 

Favourites!! Can't take that kind of pressure.

This is definitely a 2 duvet game.

 

What I don’t understand from betting percentages is that if we are favourites to win both the Everton and Swansea games, how come our relegation percentage is higher than Swansea’s or Huddersfield’s?

 

Because the relegation odds are related to all the individual matches of all the possible relegation candidates (e.g. if in all their other games the Swans were 99.9% favourites we'd be doomed). Now that would be a mind-mangling calculation but the joy of Betfair (and betting markets in general) is that the money tends to sort it out and does the maths pretty much perfectly. Weird but true.

Vin

 

If we had a load of matches I might go along with the Betfair being correct scenario, but no system can correctly guess individual matches....and that is what we are basically down to....just 3 games.


Just realised that the Swans game is next Tuesday....I've been in one game at a time mode and not looked ahead. Could all be sorted in a week.

 

A killemwithhope gambling conspiracy or a bookie-backed back from the ashes great escape ???

 

But that’s kind of my point, Huddersfield have surely got very small percentage chances of even drawing any of their remaining matches (away to Man City & Chelsea, home to Arsenal), but we are favourites to get 6 points. I suppose the other factor is what Stoke manage to get.

 

Can't see Boufal being involved again, it is alleged that in the dressing room fracas Boufal offered to fight MH in the gym after MH said "who do you think you are not warming up when I told you to "with MH saying no let's sort this out now and allegedly swung for him.
Sounds like Boufal has an attitude problem.

 

I know it is in our hands, but we still have to do it. Stoke could also save themselves with 2 wins....so many permutations.

I was at my gym session on Monday.....there are only 3 of us who support Saints and yet I could hear nothing but murmurs about Huddersfield this and Swansea that. The three of us were boring everyone else senseless with the possibilities.

 

I’d be tempted to play Tadic, Simms and Long up front for this one.