Flat Horses To Follow [2020]

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by Grade One, Feb 21, 2020.

  1. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    Grendel, what do you think of BRENTFORD HOPE? **** name I know but I was quite taken with it’s debut performance.
     
    #21
  2. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    I have looked at Brentford Hope a few times over the winter. My initial feeling was that it was a very tiring race for young horses and the winning margin may well have been misleading. 10F is far enough for 2YO horses and on soft ground I suspect some of them struggled to get home in a race that was more than 10 seconds slower than standard.

    Looking back now, I note that the runner up Princess Bride, trained by Bin Suroor, cut no ice in Meydan with a pair of 10's in races earlier this year. The mid field runners from the race Brentford Hope won have not been seen since but some of the tail enders have run with little joy. One horse did win a race but was beaten next time from a mark of 48. Not much to get excited about there.

    On the positive side the RPR he was awarded was 93 and that's high enough for me to be interested, as I believe that trying to build from a mark of less than 80 is tough when thinking about a really smart prospect. Masar stank the place out at Meydan before going on to win the Derby, so perhaps Princess Bride can be excused two poor efforts in races won by horses only rated in the 80's.

    The Racing Post race report reveals more information about the race than the one on ATR and it reads:-

    "Strong; noisy; green; held up, headway over 3f out, carried right well over 1f out, led on bit over 1f out, shaken up and ran on well, impressive"

    I like the fact that he put his winning margin in over the final furlong, rather than grinding it out from 3f out. Regarding being noisy, I remember Guy Harwood's Warning going at it like a trumpeter before his 2YO debut and it didn't stop him winning.and going on to be very smart. Everything points to Brentford Hope improving with time.

    Trainer Richard Hughes hasn't had much of note thus far and I am not really a follower of him. Maybe this will be the horse to put him on the map and the colt could be anything as they say. I would like to see him on better ground to see how he goes on it but he should stay a mile and a half and that distance is one likely to prove too far for many of last year's smart colts, such as Earthlight, Siskin and probably Pinatubo as well.

    If Brentford Hope were my horse I would be looking at a lower level to start with and then perhaps try the Chester Vase, Derby, Voltigeur, St Leger route if he is in that talent level. He's 33/1 for the Derby, so the bookies have not missed him, but the odds don't appeal to me. The St Leger would be more interesting, especially given the casualties that drop like flies from that race and the rag tag bunch that usually form the field on the day. Logician was only a 90 rated handicapper on 4th July last year, yet went on to land the Leger two starts later.

    Hughes had mentioned the Blue Riband as a possible comeback race for Brentford Hope. The race has had little impact for some years now and would put me off on the stats front. He also gave the following, mega helpful, update on the colt:- “He’s fine, not a bother on him.”

    The suggestion seemed to be that the phone was hot with enquiries about Brentford Hope after his debut but he doesn't seem to have changed hands. Take the money or open the box?
     
    #22
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  3. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Good research Grendel <applause>
     
    #23
  4. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    I was at Newmarket the day he won. He couldn't have been more impressive. Along with King Leonidas and Trefoil he was one of the picks of the day.

    I used to see these 10f 2yo races as a bit of a slow race for slow horses, but winners of the Zetland have done remarkably well in recent years. The going was soft but not sticky. He's fairly stoutly bred so a faster pace should have suited him. Spencer (a fascinating booking for a Hughes horse) rode one of his specials and once he put him in the race he was going to win, he was very confident. After the race Hughes didn't seem surprised and just said he was privileged to be sent such a good horse.
     
    #24
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  5. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    The Zetland has been won by some different sorts over the years and I feel the best winners were the ones who managed to win on Good ground. Looking at the winning times since 1980, the fastest time was 2.02.76 by Kew Gardens and the slowest time was 2.16.79 by Worthily. That is a huge difference and of course it is mostly due to the ground on the day.

    Kew Gardens was a confident selection for me going into his Zetland but I was not so sure about Coronet in her year. I thought the ground might have been on the fast side for the Gosden filly but she finished strongly to prevail by a neck. Coronet clocked a time only slightly slower than Kew Gardens and she won what must have been the best Zetland ever in terms of quality. Permian won the Dante the following season, while 4th Wings Of Eagles won the Derby. Roger Varian's Defoe was in the also rans that day and Redician went on to be very smart over hurdles for Alan King, winning the G2 Adonis.

    Most recent Zetland winner Max Vega won on soft ground in a time of 2.09.50, so he doesn't match the criteria of the two fastest winners of the race on better ground. I would therefore be wary of expecting him to match their achievements and I doubt a Derby winner is lurking from the race. I reckon Worthily ran such a slow time due to the jockey needing oars in the conditions that day.
     
    #25
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  6. Grade One

    Grade One Well-Known Member

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    Flat season should be starting soon, and adding three yet to race "Dark Horses"

    Semser Siyouni colt with Roger Varian
    Duel In The Sun Sea The Stars [Charlie Fellowes]
    Eaglemont Camelot [Joseph O'Brien]
     
    #26
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  7. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Of Aidan O'Brien's unraced 3YO colts I felt Gauntlet was the most interesting. He is a half brother to Danedream and a full brother to Venice Beach, who won the Chester Vase from subsequent Derby winner Wings Of Eagles before his form generally tailed off. Gauntlet was a January foal and I am assuming he had a problem that kept him off the racecourse last season because he must have been very backward if unable to race in 2019.

    From Aidan's lesser achiever's last season I thought Vatican City could make big improvement this season. Unusually he was sent to Newmarket for his debut in October and was a fair way in arrears of runaway winner Kinross, who was deemed the new Pegasus by many observers. The 7F of that race would have been inadequate for Vatican City but they kept him to that trip at Dundalk next time and he landed the odds of 1/2 easily enough. Rated well behind the best of last year's 2YO colts with a RPR of 88, it was an improvement of 16 lbs on that scale from his first start and much more can be expected when he steps up in trip. His dam, You'resothrilling has produced some good full siblings, the best of whom was Gleneagles. On the evidence so far you would not think Vatican City would get the Derby trip but he may emerge as an improver at 8F to 10F this year and hopefully at a decent level.

    The trouble with O'Brien horses is that there is unlikely to be any value unless you can get on ante-post for a high profile race. Gauntlet is 40/1 for the Derby and seems to have a lot on but what price Sir Dragonet at the same stage last year? The unraced colt went off favourite for the Derby in the end and was very much an exception when going off 14/1 on his debut.
     
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  8. Grade One

    Grade One Well-Known Member

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    Great that France will be the first major racing nation to resume on Monday, and can see the 3 year old maiden races after this break producing Group horses!

    Will put some horses up to follow
     
    #28
  9. Grade One

    Grade One Well-Known Member

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    Miss Lara

    Fabre filly who disappointed in the summer when touted for debut. Did not run again suggesting a problem, so would interested if top connections go again with this daughter of Galileo
     
    #29
  10. Grade One

    Grade One Well-Known Member

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    Ultramarine

    She proved costly to follow in her two runs last year, but liked what I saw and is under the tutelage of Jean-Claude Rouget which is a big positive
     
    #30

  11. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    I am interested in Chorba, who runs again on Monday at Longchamp. Trainer by Rouget, she made her debut very late last year (14th December) and to all intents it was a nothing race where she received only a 75 Rating from the Racing Post. By Olympic Glory her half sister Spirit Of Brittany didn't train on from a promising start but Chorba won her only race so far in good style. She was well away and always to the fore before quickening up from the front to put the race to bed decisively, she perhaps got a little lonely in front but still had 2 and a half lengths to spare. Chorba has a really rapid stride and you would not have thought the polytrack was ideal for her action, so she may prove better on turf. She needs to improve a great deal to get to the upper echelons but she is entered in the French Guineas, Prix Diane and Prix Saint Alary, so I assume they think she is capable of much better in time.

    Alex Pantall's Slayer sets the standard of those with ratings for Monday's race on 43kg but she was poor when dropped to a sprint trip in Listed Company in March. It's a race Chorba will have to win easily to entertain ideas of her Group 1 entries. Andre Fabre has Mazagran entered and she was given a 77 from the Racing Post for being 4th in the same race Algiers ran second in. Hopefully Mazagran sets up a price about Chobra but she does have an alternative engagement at Chantilly on Wednesday (Also entered in French Guineas but not Diane or Alary)
     
    #31
    Last edited: May 9, 2020
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  12. Grade One

    Grade One Well-Known Member

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    Mille Fois Merci

    Beaten market leader in all her three runs last autumn, but has an engine and should shine over a middle distance
     
    #32
  13. Grade One

    Grade One Well-Known Member

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    Love And Thunder

    Backed into odds on for her debut late last year, but was beaten a short head after getting involved in a bit of scrimmaging early in the race
     
    #33
  14. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    The ground was heavy on both of Ultramarine's starts last season. The latter race was over 10F and that is a test of stamina on heavy going for young horses. The race time was over 17 seconds slower than standard. Better ground could well help her but like Chorba she has a long way to go to justify the same fancy entries she holds.

    Chorba is 15/8 for tomorrow, so I'll have a bet at those odds. I assumed this was an all fillies race but Mazagran is actually a colt by War Front. I am surprised he is 16/1 tomorrow given that Fabre is the trainer.
     
    #34
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  15. Grade One

    Grade One Well-Known Member

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    Restiany

    Unlike the rest of my list is the only horse to have won a race, which was on the all weather.

    Think this son of Frankel has a nice future
     
    #35
  16. Grade One

    Grade One Well-Known Member

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    Runs tomorrow at Deauville [11.10am]

    Win bet @ 5-2 [Paddy Power]
     
    #36
  17. Grade One

    Grade One Well-Known Member

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    Not a great start, well beaten
     
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  18. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Brentford Hope got a timeform of 96+ that day with the comment "bred more for stamina than speed, looked potentially smart in making a winning debut, knowing his job well and beating those with a fair level of form in most taking fashion; in rear, tanked along, smooth headway 3f out, led on bridle 2f out, quickened clear entering final 1f, impressive; sure to improve and will be an interesting contender at a higher level in the spring."
     
    #38
  19. dylanthomas

    dylanthomas Active Member

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    Whats everyones antepost selections for The Derby??
     
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  20. Grade One

    Grade One Well-Known Member

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    Runs tomorrow morning at Clairefontaine [10.40]

    Win bet at 5-2
     
    #40

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