I almost feel that this week needs a thread of its own. We have the final 4 days of quality jump racing and of course the build up to the 1000 and 2000 Guineas next weekend. It's top table at both ends of the spectrum of racing and I'd like to collate the discussion if everyone's good with that. To set the scene for the Guineas build up, I invite everyone to attempt (for fun- not real stakes unless you are partial to a Group 1 double), to look to complete the 1000/2000 double. 2000 Guineas I think just about everyone on Earth is tipping AIR FORCE BLUE to win the 2000 Guineas and he is as warm a favourite as we have had for a while- probably since Frankel. I think he's too short and that you can oppose, from a punting point of view, for the following reasons: 1) Value, 2) Sired by WAR FRONT- will he train on 3)Will he relish 1m? He has so much speed and that is where he was brilliant last year. However, a truly run Rowley mile does demand something a bit extra. If he has it, he could be a brilliant winner but I think he is vulnerable. What could give him a race? Buratino stands out as value for me and I think he'll get the trip no problem. I'd be interested in him e/w for the race but the one that really stood out for me even more was Racing Post Trophy winner MARCEL. I actually think that he might have just been totally and utterly underestimated based entirely on his odds when winning at 50/1. On a line through Johannes Vermeer, who beat STORMY ANTARTIC a head in France, who beat FOUNDATION in the Craven, Marcel has some of the best 2 year old form going. He is beat Johannes Vermeer comfortably yet the 2ns fav for the Guineas was beaten by Johannes Vermeer, so again Marcel is unfashionable and unfancied. In the Racing Post Trophy, he came from last to first in a matter of strides- he gets a mile, has no problems if it does indeed rain, and Peter Chapple-Hyam knows his onions when he gets a good one. He can improve again having only had 3 starts and he for me is the main danger to the favourite. Selection: MARCEL (14/1) & Buratino (16/1 e.w) 1000 Guineas Much has been said about antepost favourite MINDING recently but there is a slight weakness for her on Betfair as confidence in other runners begins to grow. Mark Johnstons LUMIERE is good enough to win according to his trainer and he is as bullish as ever about her prospects. Providing we get GOOD TO FIRM ground- and the weather forecast doesn't make that a certainty- I really like the Ballydoyle second string- aptly named of course BALLYDOYLE. Ballydoyle looked classy from the moment she set foot on a race course and was learning under tender handling with each appearance. She had MINDINGs measure on firmer ground and I actually backed Minding to reverse form on softer terrain later on in the season. Obviously Minding went on to win impressively at Newmarket but remember she was 15/2 and 8/1 when opposing Ballydoyle on both of those occasions so was not the expected winner by any means. Much depends on the weather but I liked Ballydoyles recent piece of work, thought she looked a nice 3 year old filly too, filling a bit more into her frame I always like to understand the e/w angles into this and Brian Meehan really likes Blue Bayou (40/1) and she looked well worth a crack at 1m on her best form last year. She didn't disgrace herself behind Minding on the softer surface at Newmarket when signing off her juvenile campaign and she could be a real springer on better ground. Selection: BALLYDOYLE (5/1) & BLUE BAYOU (40/1 e/w) To kick things off with Punchestown, clearly punters had bad news this weekend when it was confirmed that Thistlecrack and Don Cossack- reigning Cheltenham kings- were ruled out of their respective engagements. Rich Ricci then went and pissed a bit more on the bonfire by deciding that, on the eve of another big festival, Vautour would again go shorter in trip rather than take on the big boys over 3m in the Punchestown Gold Cup. Vautour goes off a 3/10 favourite in that race, but don't let that cause you to forget the little sub-plot going on in that race, but we'll get to that later. DAY ONE- Tuesday 26th April HERALD CHAMPION NOVICE HURDLE YORKHILL drops back to 2m for the first time since the Sandown Tolworth hurdle and is an understandably warm order. He's looked a real machine this spring and could make a very exciting novice chaser next season with his scope and ability. He is 4/9 favourite for this and could go off even shorter. The two UK challengers who come over are the likeable Charbel, of Kim Baileys yard, and Hendersons outsider (25/1) Brain Power (Charbel beat him 8L at Musslebrough). The other Irish challengers are much of a muchness and they'll be looking to chase home the favourite barring any slip ups. I'd fancy them to get the better of the UK duo for minor honours. Selection: YORKHILL- Unopposable. BOYLESPORT CHAMPION CHASE (2 miles) VAUTOUR heads the market at 1/3 and is obviously a fascinating contender for Mullins down at 2 miles for the first time since a below par Christmas 2014 run that saw him swerve the Arkle. Could this indicate a change of plan for next season or is it just a one-off, keeping Douvans seat warm? Which one of them will go back up in trip? We will see. We then have the sub-plot- the return of SIMONSIG to fences for the first time since his Arkle win. He is one of the most naturally talented horses in recent years but sadly injury has curtailed so much of his career. Nicky Henderson reported him to be working well at home and he would be fascinating on Irish spring ground, fresh and wouldn't it be fabulous if he could give Vautour something to think about? Special Tiara and Flemenstar should ensure that there is a real pace on and Vautour might have to settle behind one of them. Gods Own reopposes having picked up the pieces when Vautour fell at Aintree. Selection: A sporting bet on SIMONSIG (12/1) GROWISE CHAMPION NOVICE CHASE (3m 1f) I will be angry and disappointed if they run Rule The World in this. He has just won a National, has overcome some horrible injury problems- retire him because he owes no-one anything now. He's in one piece and made history- draw stumps. It's bizarre that he is eligible for these races but that's the way his career panned out after having some of the best placed form over fences on offer! It is a wide open race with 3 Gigginstown runners in total, Outlander and Sub Lieutenant the other two, and I fancy the latter to go close. He will go on to show his best form on Spring ground IMO and he should make a bold bid from a prominent sit. The one I really like is Mags Mullins' BALLYCHORUS. Remarkably, in his last 13 starts, he has either finished 1st or 2nd or been bang in contention when falling or unseating. Was running another good race at Cheltenham when coming to grief and I think rates exceptional e/w value at 16/1 for this in what is probably the most open Grade 1 of the entire festival. Mulholland sends over Southfield Royale for the UK team and Harry Fry sends HENRYVILLE, both of whom sense a good opportunity one would imagine, but I will oppose them on this occasion. I'll add more each day of the meeting, so please discuss away and enjoy what looks a really good week. Some great NH Flat races in this Punchestown meeting too, and of course the treacherous bookies benefit handicaps. Our Not606 Irish contingent can hopefully point us in the right direction! Premium jumps racing and the first Classic of the year on the Flat- ENJOY!
If anyone gets chance to watch Blue Bayou in the race in Ireland when 5th to Minding and Ballydoyle, have a look at the interference she suffered when trying to begin her challenge. Not saying she would have won but think she would have finished closer. 2000 Guineas field could be one of the shortest in memory looking at Betfair last night.
I am on Simonsig also 12-1 a cracking ew price !! Can't se him out the first 3! He may not win but will certainly put it up to Vautour and has the speed to match him too big shame he has had his problems
A possible 17 could line up for the 2000 Guineas on Saturday, which caught me by surprise. That number may reduce a little bit by Saturday but it's good that we get a proper field.
Well day one was an absolute bloodbath for punters. Yorkhill, Vautour, Jenkins all beaten when massive favourites and today's card looks pretty tricky too. Looking at the 3m hurdle, Bellshill bounced back when a narrow 2nd in an Aintree Grade One recently and he is 5/2 to go one better in an open renewal at Punchestown. However, there are two others that caught my eye. Firstly, British raider EMERGING FORCE (6/1), who tumbled at the last when having a good handicap all sewn up. He could make the jump and is progressive. However, Noel Meade sends one up in class as a Gigginstown outsider- A GENIE IN A BOTTLE 16/1, he should love the spring ground (Beneficial) and is another unexposed horse unlike one or two of them that are. The Gold Cup is robbed of Don Cossack and to some extent Vautour. I hope Cue Card can dazzle again but he's had a hell of a season and you never know when they might just show that first sign of tiredness. Il take ROAD TO RICHES back at his true trip and on his ground, but I will cheer on Cue Card! In the Champion Bumper, everyone seems to want Moon Racer and he was impressive last season, but first time out I'm willing to oppose. I really like the look of a massive outsider here in PRESENTING PERCY 25/1, who ran on really well behind BATTLEFORD on debut and then won his next start with minimum of fuss. That form has now been franked at both Cheltenham and Aintree on Grade 1s and with BATTLEFORD ruled out today, this seems as good an opportunity as any for a 25/1 shocker! Very Much So 12/1 can give him most to think about, winning a bumper at Punchestown on debut and then running with an enormous amount of credit after a near 2 year absence when a close 8th in the Cheltenham Champion Bumper. If there is progression from that run then we should see a bold bid today.
