How many points for automatic?

Discussion in 'Norwich City' started by lisboncanary, Feb 28, 2021.

  1. lisboncanary

    lisboncanary Well-Known Member

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    Apparently, the average over the last 10 seasons is about 86, which would mean that even lower mid-table form would be enough for us. But I can't help feeling that the top 4 are clearly much better than the remainder of this league, so I suspect 86 is too low. What do you all think?
     
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  2. DHCanary

    DHCanary Very Well-Known Member
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    33 games is 71% of the season complete. So extrapolating form thus far gives (roughly):
    Norwich 98 points
    Brentford 88
    Swansea 87.5 (extrapolating their games in hand too)
    Watford 84.5

    Which would mean Swansea would get more than 86 points and miss out on the autos. If this prediction has any kind of validity (doubtful!).
     
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  3. RiverEndRick

    RiverEndRick Well-Known Member

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    #3
  4. Golden Eadie 2

    Golden Eadie 2 Well-Known Member

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    That can't be an article in the Fail, it is too good and accurate.
     
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  5. zogean_king

    zogean_king Well-Known Member

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    Yeah I thought they had done some decent research for that one
     
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  6. Bure budgie

    Bure budgie Well-Known Member

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    Pity he didn't do his homework on us being 7 points clear of Brentford and not 4 as he states.
     
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  7. lisboncanary

    lisboncanary Well-Known Member

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    I imagine it was written on Saturday evening when the gap was down to 4 points?

    Maybe, but it was the Mail.
     
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  8. JediCanary

    JediCanary Well-Known Member

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    7 wins could guarantee us promotion (3x7 wins = 21 points + 70 = 91 points)

    So if we won all our remaining home games (7) we'd be promoted automatically or if we won our next 7 games, starting with Brentford, we could be promoted by April 5th
     
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  9. Farked19

    Farked19 Well-Known Member

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    My calculation would be based on this: no more than two teams will average in excess of 2ppg from now until the end of the season. If those two are Brentford and Swansea then they both end up on 89. If it is only one of them plus another then it realistically can only be Watford who would reach 86. So on that basis it's 87-90 points for one of the top two positions. So we are looking for 5:5:3 ( Not a bible verse) from our run in of 13 games. Not a big ask, the kind of scoring rate that Millwall or Preston have achieved so far this season.
     
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  10. zogean_king

    zogean_king Well-Known Member

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    It was written before the match against Wycombe as I read it Sunday morning
     
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  11. DHCanary

    DHCanary Very Well-Known Member
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    Kind of a remarkable stat which came out of the press conference today.

    After 33 games last season, Leeds had 59 points, had 8 losses, goal difference +18.

    We have 70 points, 5 losses, GD +22.

    Suspect that points to a weaker league in general considering that Leeds side would be 4th/5th.
     
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  12. Canary Rob

    Canary Rob Well-Known Member

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    We are a point ahead of where Newcastle were when they had their 102 point Championship season (though admittedly four points behind where Leicester were in their 102 point Championship season)
     
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  13. Farked19

    Farked19 Well-Known Member

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    My view is that if we were to win tonight putting us on 73 then it would be a very big ask for two teams to catch us. In that scenario then I think that 87 points would do. So 14 from our last 12 games.
     
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  14. DHCanary

    DHCanary Very Well-Known Member
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    For what it's worth, yesterday Farke said 80 points for play-offs, 90 for autos
     
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  15. carrowcanario

    carrowcanario Well-Known Member

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    I'd agree with that.
     
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  16. zogean_king

    zogean_king Well-Known Member

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    Conversely does it mean the league was stronger with any side capable of beating another?
     
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  17. DHCanary

    DHCanary Very Well-Known Member
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    EDP looked at form needed to hit 90 points:
    Nowich: 6 wins, 2 draws, 5 losses - 1.54 ppg. (Also 5 wins, 5 draws, 3 losses)
    Brentford: 8 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses - 2.08 ppg
    Swansea: 9 wins, 4 draws, 2 loss - 2.07 ppg
    Watford: 9 wins, 3 draws, 1 loss - 2.31 ppg.

    Everyone else needs more than 2.7 ppg, which I think we can rule out.

    Based on form in the last 6 (10) games, current ppg is:

    Norwich 2.5 ppg (2.3)
    Watford 2.16 ppg (2.0)
    Swansea 2.0 ppg (2.0)
    Brentford 1.5 ppg (1.9)

    Across the season, last 10, or last 6 games, none of our rivals are achieving the ppg to clear 90 points.
     
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  18. Farked19

    Farked19 Well-Known Member

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    That result alters things a fair bit. Brentford now need 2.25ppg to make 90. Norwich need 1.41. I'm calling this for Norwich now!
     
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  19. DHCanary

    DHCanary Very Well-Known Member
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    90 points for autos is 17 more. 6 wins or 5 wins, 2 draws.

    Next 7 games are:

    Luton (H), Wednesday (A), Forest (A), Blackburn (H), PNE (A), Huddersfield (H), Derby (A).

    Hopefully we can pick up the bulk of the points needed in those games, and not have to worry about the final 5, tougher games too much.
     
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