How many points Watford need .....

Those three are necessities if we seriously intend to straight up. 90pts probably won't be enough.

 

At least we are in the mix at the moment.

Maybe getting rid of Ivic was una buena decición.

 

And maybe Deeney being injured means less pressure on Munoz to play him?

 

Deffo. It has surely helped.

 

20/03/21 CHA Watford 15 : 00 Birmingham City 3
02/04/21 CHA Watford 15 : 00 Sheffield Wednesday 3
05/04/21 CHA Middlesbrough 15 : 00 Watford 1
10/04/21 CHA Watford 15 : 00 Reading 3
17/04/21 CHA Luton Town 15 : 00 Watford 3
20/04/21 CHA Norwich City 19 : 45 Watford 0
24/04/21 CHA Watford 15 : 00 Millwall 3
01/05/21 CHA Brentford 15 : 00 Watford 1
08/05/21 CHA Watford 15 : 00 Swansea City 3


Welll we have done better than mine and probably anyones predictions ( above) Looks like we will need 89 points? 17 more needed ?

A big ask from these upcoming games.....

 

Well we are now within 2 points of 2 points per game. We should get there after our next 2 home games if both go as planned. We don't have to fear anybody in this division and if we have built up a buffer between 2nd and 3rd with 7 games left then game management should get us over the line. I can't see us getting any closer than within 4 points of Norwich but you never know.

 

I had a quick peek at the fixtures for Brentford and Swansea, i think that they could both reasonably reach 91 points (fixtures v Watford I put down as a draw)

This would mean that to avoid a GD situation we would need 20 points so we finish on 92 points. Barring any nightmare drop in form I think that is possible and of course, if we can beat Swansea and Brentford then that would mean our 'target' total is less.
fun-times and of course this is the best bit about being in the mix - us supporters trying to work out the likely permutations etc

one thing is for sure, if we win all our matches then we will be promoted
and that is the only surety


you 'Orns!!!!!!!!!

 

I can see both those happening - as well as both losing a couple of other games. Swansea starting this weekend against Cardiff and then at Reading, Brentford also against Cardiff and then at Bournemouth.

And then there are the dark horses, the current form team in the division - Barnsley. They may be eleven points behind us at the moment, but they do have a fairly easy run-in - except perhaps their final match, home to Norwich. But as you say, if we win all our matches...

 

Probably need to make sure we at least 3 points ahead of both before we play them at the end.

Be handy if Brentford and Swansea lose their game in hand.

 

Brentford's game in hand is home to Rotherham.
So we need to continue to build our goal difference over the next few matches because I expect Brentford to win by 3, 4 or 5

 

Well you never know. Prior to the game last night, they had a reasonably tight defence - sandwiched between away wins at Sheffield and Preston, they had five defeats - one 1-2 and four by 0-1, two of which were at Norwich and Bournemouth. Last night was probably a Covid-inspired abberation - if their affected players all get back to full fitness, Brentord maybe will struggle to score that many.

 

People might remember this from before on the Grimsby site:

https://thefishy.co.uk/football-calculator.php

This was my final table - a win on the final day sees us get 2nd!

Pos Team PGD Pts

1 Norwich 46+29 100
2 Watford 46+26 91
3 Swansea4 6+17 90
4 Brentford46+26 88
5 Barnsley 46+883
6 Bournemouth 46+18 79
7 Reading 46+11 74
8 Cardiff 46+17 72
9 Middlesbrough 46+8 72
10 Bristol City 46-9 67
11 Stoke 46-1 63
12 QPR 46-4 59
13 Luton 46-11 57
14 Millwall 46+1 56
15 Blackburn 46+8 55
16 Nott'm Forest 46-8 52
17 Derby 46-14 51
18 Coventry 46-16 50
19 Huddersfield 46-1 149
20 Preston 46-9 46
21 Birmingham 46-19 46
22 Rotherham 46-11 45
23 Sheff Wed 46-20 33
24 Wycombe 46-36 28

 

For what it's worth....

We have the hardest run-in , based on the opposition's current league position.
Our opposition averages position 10 (over 9 games).
Swansea averages 13.2 over 9 games ( I cannot find their outstanding game)
Brentford averages 13.5 over 10 games.

From seeing the games , Brentford are clearly the greater risk in terms of their ability, playing style and goal threat.
Swansea flatter to deceive - it seems to me. I think they will be short of 2nd place before they play us.

 

If only!

 

And the magic 40 points mark wouldn't be enough at the other end...

 

Your charts show the fickle nature of promotion stats. All you need is a duff ref in a game against a promotion rival that is heading for a draw. He gives ( or denies) a penalty and , depending on the way it's going, that could end up making four points difference on the outcome. A gain, or loss, of two for either team. Enough to make the difference between auto and okay off.

 

As we have seen with Swansea !

Won 2 games late on with penalties and drew another with one so they would be well out of contention otherwise !

 

Oh... it is all speculation as we know.... but oh.... we love to speculate.......

 

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A Speculoo and a cup of coffee should sort out the promotion dilemma.

 

Mmm.....