Match Day Thread Huddersfield Town vs Saints Saturday 26th August 3PM KO

We will probably play better away, going for a 3-1 win.

 

Well I am at least.....

 

Agree with your logic! I think we can get something from this game if we play a sensible formation, don't get stupidly complacent like last week, create genuine opportunities in the final third and take our chances... oh... perhaps a 0-0 draw then...

 

SAM's verdict
Most probable score: 1-1 Probability of draw: 27%
Probability of home win: 31% Probability of away win: 42%
SAM (Sports Analytics Machine) is a super-computer created by @ProfIanMcHale that is used to predict the outcome of football matches.

So, most probable score 1-1, highest probability away win. Sorted.

 

That makes no sense whatsoever!

 

Oh, brother. My two teams in the same division now playing each other. I'm going to be ok with whoever wins this. Just so happy to see Hudds in the Prem. Will be a short sweet run till they start to slide I feel but great to see them flying high after 2 games.

I'm going for a draw. 3 all. Us with 3 penalities.

 

Plastic!!

 

They are a decent team.

1-2 to us.

 

I've had a think about it - it works something like this:

0-0 (8%)
1-1 (17%)
2-2 (1%)
3-3 (1%)

1-0 (10%)
2-0 (8%)
2-1 (7%)
3-0 (3%)
3-1 (2%)
3-2 (1%)

0-1 (16%)
0-2 (10%)
1-2 (10%)
0-3 (2%)
1-3 (3%)
2-3 (1%)

 

So it'll be 4-5

 

Sooooooooooooooooo. If it's a draw...1-1 is the most likely, if it's an away win...0-1 is the most likely, and if it's a home win....1-0 is the most likely. So the computer can't see either team scoring much.....sounds like every Saints' fan.

 

I made the numbers up to match the computer! I am after all a Saints fan!

 

Beddytare's had to go and have a lie down after trying to add up those percentages...

 

Shouldn't that post be hidden behind a Spoiler? Don't want Beddy having to see that really.

 

i'd be happy with a point
i'd be very happy with 3
i'd be a little sad with none

 

It does if you think it through. 1-1 is the most likely of all the individual scores the game could be.

Add up all the possible scores that make up a draw, same for home wins and same for away wins and you get the result that an away win is the most likely of those three possibilities.

Betfair implied odds are draw 28%, home win 25%, away win 47% - sop the money thinks we have a better chance than the computer does.

Vin

 

Yes, I realised that after I posted it, but it wasn't clear at first.

 

I'd like us to try a diamond at some point, even though it's been unpopular. Gabbi & Austin up top, Boufal at 10. JWP & Lemina in the middle with Romeu sitting. At least we might then have people in the box to attempt to get on the end of our dead crosses.

 

I thought the main disadvantage of the diamond formation was a lack of width, meaning there would be less dead crosses? (P.S. I have no idea what I'm talking about)

 

OK I'm having a quiet day.

The diamond formation:

Advantages
The diamond formation provides a solid platform through the center of the field. The staggered diamond in the midfield allows the team to keep possession of the ball with intelligent player movement and good short passing. A coach also can use the formation to play to the strengths of his team. He can place his star attacking midfielder in an advanced position directly behind the two strikers, a role that the standard 4-4-2 does not accommodate quite so easily. The diamond formation also is ideal for a team that does not have strong wingers, allowing the team to concentrate on the middle of the field.

Disadvantages
The main disadvantage of the diamond formation is a lack of width. The advanced attacking midfielder and the deep defensive midfielder leave gaps in the center of the field. The two remaining midfielders, who traditionally would be on the flanks, must therefore move slightly infield to plug the gaps. This results in a narrow formation, limiting wing play and making it difficult to get behind the opposing fullbacks to swing in crosses. One solution is to use attacking fullbacks or wingbacks to give width to the team. This, however, leaves gaps in the four-man defense, placing greater pressure on the central defenders and the lone defensive midfielder.