Match Day Thread Hull City v Burnley

A year or two ago we had a corner and took it short and it went all the way back to our goalkeeper without an opponent touching the ball.

 

The Athletic published an article about goal kicks today, including this snippet. Something to consider when complaining about us playing out short:

 

That must be up there among the most **** statistical analysis and conclusions ever written!!
First off, 13% v 15% is common cause variation i.e. no signifance
There is no consideration / comparison of the quality or outcome of 'the touch' from either approach.(not that such an comparison would likely mean much).
Also no consideration of things like the down sides of either approach e.g. how often playing short leads to errors which directly or indirectly lead to goals against.
What a load of bolloxs! (granted, we haven't been given sight of the rest of the article!).

 

Fair point, it would be good to have the equivalent figure for how often it leads to a goal against or an opposition touch in your own area. I suspect it would show that going short is actually much safer than some people think, but I have no data for that.

I don't think it's bollocks though. Some people insist that we should gerrit forward when we need a goal, but this suggests that would actually be less productive.

 

How did we ever manage to watch or enjoy a game of Football prior to analytical statisticians sticking their tuppence worth in....

 

Yep.
Tbf, a bit of analysis is good (to help see what we miss or don't understand) but imo it's just all gone way too far.
Bit like a lot of the football we see nowadays where it's typically so predicatable, organised, tactical, etc. There was nothing better (ok, maybe not that far!) back in the day seeing a team just get the ball to the winger who would then just do 'his thing', going off on a mazy run just 'freestyling'; so rarely seen these days. I guess that's why I loved watching Messi with Barca, many times a game he would just get the ball and take on players, often making it look like it was even just for fun. Oooh, going off on a bit of one there ....

 

I reckon our stats would give us the grand figure of 0%.

 

How many goals do they result in conceding?
Surely that is more relevant?

 

But what about the POMO?

 

Whats eye opening about that stat, is that some piece will have been paid for coming up with that.

 

****ing hell this is such a weird attitude. You don't have to be a stats nerd or take enjoyment in them. I don't. But they are facts, so when one is presented to you it's just information at your disposal. I suppose you can be miserable and choose to reject new information just because it comes from stats but I don't know why anyone would want to be so willingly ignorant. When people are specifically discussing the merits of a particular strategy and then it turns out there is a recent analysis of the success rate of that exact strategy, clearly it is extremely relevant to the discussion.

 

It would be interesting to see the stats re goals conceded in playing out long Vs short and if this outweighs the 2%

 

There are lies, damn lies, and statistics

 

Wow,that prepubescent rant becomes quite personal.

I could easily take offence to that but I won't...Keyboard warriors are statistically fairly prevalent on most forums

 

All we need now is statistics on City, which, I very much doubt will follow this supposed trend.

 

It would, but as I said to GFAW, I suspect it would enhance the 2% rather than outweigh it. There is a reason everyone does it now.

 

It does reference the Premier League. Watched Luton v Millwall the other night. Neither team even attempt to play it out from the back at goal kicks. Seem to be doing ok in the table.

 

My first thought on reading the startlingly analysis quoted was simply that the 13% and 15% are too close together to be statistically significant but regardless, they are derived from an average of the 20 Premier League teams. I would imagine that Manchester Hunters are higher than 15% at successfully playing out from the back whilst, say Everton Weasels, are much lower.

Applied to the Championship, I'd hazard a guess that we'd be an outlier than brings the average kicking and screaming down.


Could be wrong, so if some of you stats lads want to trawl back through all our games since Liam came in and check it'd be a worthwhile project.

 

It might be facts but nobody should be making decisions on such facts when they dont take into account so many other possible outcomes of going short or long
Personally, I dont mind going short if it's leading to getting the ball forward into the opponent's half but passing the ball between goalkeeper and full backs leading to a panicked pass out of the penalty area to an attacker who sets up a goal should be relevant to the decision making.

 

crazy, rosenior has never thought about this

fortunately we have you enlighten him and us