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Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by Grendel, Apr 9, 2021.
2/1 this morning, that could look a steal by 6 25 .........
All three siblings are winners for the yard but none won on debut
Perhaps this one will break that trend ?or not ......
HMS Endeavour was disappointing for sure. He sat in a good position to strike but there was nothing there and he weakened into 3rd. Mind you, they couldn't give him away in the betting. He actually opened a shade of odds on and I wish he had stayed there so that I could have left him alone. Right out to 9/2, it seemed obvious he wasn't ready to party on debut. The money was all for the Lyons horse and it had an inevitability that his one would win it. O'Brien can forget about the Group entries for HMS Endeavour based on this show but he's probably a longer term project.
Taj Alola was impressive but it has to be considered that the runner up was 10th on debut and bagged a RPR of 59. The third had a RPR of 66 and the 5th's RPR was 56. Much as some people dismiss the RPR figures as meaningless, it does give a ball park figure and the 3rd and 5th were the next two in the betting behind FAV Taj Alola, suggesting it wasn't a tough ask on debut for him. Nice price to be winning at though, so well done anyone who backed him. It could turn out that Taj Aloha was a penalty kick and the bet of the season at 9/2.
Masekela is the best of El Kabeir's so far. He won on debut and then got lost in the mud behind Point Lonsdale at Ascot in the Chesham. Last time out he gave Native Trail a hell of a fright in the Superlative Stakes. He is now rated 107 on official figures and Taj Alola has a bit to go yet to reach that level but it's early days. I hope the Superlative turns out to be a good race, as I have backed Native Trail for the 2000 Guineas at 40/1. He is rated 108 now and needs to progress to 115 and 120 ish in his next two starts to be on pace for a Guineas crack. Point Lonsdale runs today in a penalty kick as 1/4 Fav and it will be interesting to see how his odds go after the assumed win. Hard to see much reduction but those bookies seem to have no sense of shame in cutting them to single figures in a hurry.
Prettiest is also out this evening and she should have learned a bit after being thrust into the cauldron of the Albany on her second start. The winner has come out and won again in good style but Juncture looks no mug and I am not sure Prettiest should be odds-on.
Wins @ 11-8
That was easy for Dubawi Legend and he'll surely step up in class next time.
Over in Ireland Point Lonsdale won as an 8/1 on shot should but I don't think he warranted being cut to as low as 7/1 for the 2000 Guineas. That seems stingy to my eyes.
I was dubious about Prettiest at odds on and it proved to be wise. The exposed Agartha sprung a surprise and won at 16/1. I know some on the forum members have backed Joseph's filly in the past and it would be typical if the odds put them off being on her this evening. Prettiest had beaten Agartha on debut by one and three quarter lengths but was four and three quarter in arrears tonight so the form was reversed by six and a half lengths. That suggests Prettiest didn't run her race and the vet reported that the filly was showing signs of being in season. My father used to be reluctant to back fillies to strong money at short odds just in case they were in season. I'm not expert but would you think those who handle the filly every day might pick up on signs of her perhaps coming into season?
Anyway it probably wasn't Prettiest's true running this evening but I thought Inspiral put a marker down at Sandown today. She came from the back and got there so easily that Frankie ended up hitting the front way earlier than he wanted to but she scooted clear in the style of a Group filly despite being green. The May Hill was mooted as the logical next step to give her a good spacing between races and I expect her to put up a show rated more than 110 when she next appears. I looked at Oddschecker and saw SkyBet were showing Inspiral at 33/1 for the Guineas but when my betting slip came up it was only 14/1. Oh well. I am on her at 16/1 and don't anticipate having to back anything else barring injury or a heavy defeat. Long way to go but I think she will progress and she is by Frankel out of Starscope,who was runner-up, albeit way back in Homecoming Queen's 1000 Guineas.
Debut in first race at Galway tomorrow
Opening 4-1 did not last long, now 11-4
Ran well and would have won in another stride!
Obviously needs further though
I thought the jockey left him with plenty to do. Aidan O'Brien's Anchorage looked the one who desperately needs further and I wouldn't be put off backing Duke De Sessa if he ran at 7F again. He was clearly the best horse in the race today and you were unlucky not to collect.
yeah, but for missing the start which left him 7 lengths behind the eventual 1st & 2nd after a few strides its safe to say the Duke would have got the job done fairly comfortable
Group 3 test for Dubawi Legend tomorrow at York [2.25]
Seemed to be no excuses in 3rd
Though this colt has no fancy entries for Aidan O'Brien, am told this son of Churchill could be useful
Song Of War
This Ballydoyle filly does have the high profile entries and ran well on debut
Nice debut 4th in a French maiden that looked full of quality
Duke de Sessa goes up in trip tomorrow [5.30 Curragh]
Best odds now of 3-1
Kodiac colt who is owned by Amo Racing and was liked by Trainer Ralph Beckett, but the partnership have fallen out so of interest who gets this juvenile
Runs tomorrow [4.50 Tipperary]