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Is there something wrong at Freemason Lodge?: mwildcats one for you!

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by Bustino74, Sep 19, 2011.

  1. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    I make no pretence in hiding that I'm a follower of certain owner-breeders and it happens that some of those owner-breeders have their horses trained by Sir Michael Stoute. Because of that I've come to recognise the pattern of the stables' operations. At times it has been fairly lucrative. Well this year has been decidedly tough going. This is not a punter crying through his pocket as you wouldn't live on my winnings and you'd starve on my stakes. My interest is seeing the progress of families more than gambling.

    At the moment I believe Stoute has trained 46 winners and has won win money of nearly £600,000 only. As far as I can see the worst year he's had over the last 15 years was 1999 (please correct me if I'm wrong). In that year I think he won 73 races. He is going to struggle to do that this year! He has according to Horses in Training about 170 hoses under his care.

    His horses seem incapable of putting more than a couple of decent runs together. His way with 2yos has often been for them to be given a gentle introduction and then to follow up with a eye catching win. None of that this year: the first run has often been the best (although still relatively gentle) and the follow ups downright disappointing. What is wrong this year?

    Has he got a lot of bad horses? Possible but he has such a wide portfolio of owners that they can't all be having an off year. One of his principal owners is Ballymacoll, who have had about 30 horses at Freemason Lodge this year. They have amassed the paltry sum of 5 winners with their best horse being the handicapper/Group 3 gelding Modun. You don't send your mares to the cream of European stallions to get that sort of return.

    Is the stable suffering with some affliction? It's possible. Dick Hern had 3 nightmare years between 1966 and 1969 (strangely in 1967 he had 60 winners from a stable of 60 horses and all seemed well) and the worst year, 1968, he had only 20 winners. He was affected by 'the virus' as was Peter Walwyn in 1978/9 and probably thereafter. People forget how powerful and consistent was Walwyn's Seven Barrows yard in the early to mid-70s. But in 1978 it all fell apart when the virus struck. He was never the same trainer again unlike Hern who for at least 20 years after his episode was top of the tree.

    Is he just getting old? I doubt this but you can make a case for Noel Murless going off in his last few years, you can make a case for Guy Harwood going off, you can make a case for Dick Hern going off. But I doubt it.

    Are they being unlucky? Maybe. They've just lost Eagle Peak, and stables do have bad luck. Confidence is a big thing in sport and there certainly isn't that ring of confidence around Stoute's runners this year.

    So what has happened to Sir Michael and more important will he snap out of it next year? Henry Cecil had an awful 6 years in the early 2000s. Yes he lost Sheikh Mohammed's patronage in 1995 but he was still an enormous force in '96-'99. Too often that's the excuse trotted out but the slip to where he was almost the forgotten man was almost too rapid. I hope Stoute does not have a fallow period like Cecil had.

    One thing I've always found frustrating is the long game that Stoute plays with his horses. Many of his 2yos don't run and many, that do run, run only once or twice and not before mid-August. There is always the same pattern with the 2yo debuts. They are not put in the race and are often at the back of the pack and come with a long run (this year those runs haven't been materialising). But that's probably more about style than substance.

    I know there are a lot of people on this forum who have a sound perspective of racing and even some of you may have heard what's going on. Or maybe there really isn't anything wrong and he's just out of form. So have any of you views on this?
     
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  2. Tamerlo

    Tamerlo Well-Known Member

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    Bustino,good morning.
    A different and very interesting Article.
    I shouldn't dare to have the knowledge as to why certain trainers have that 'magic touch'- or the real reasons for their lean periods.
    However, ever since I became interested in racing, I took it for granted that the patronage of enthusiastic and extremely wealthy owners was necessary for ongoing success at the very top level.
    I used to wonder why obviously talented trainers like George Todd never had wealthy owners - when Noel Murless churned out all those top horses from owners like Sassoon, Hue-Williams, and Wickham-Boynton. I put it down to 'connections,' and whose face 'fitted.' Also ongoing loyalty,tradition, and unwillingness to change.

    Therefore, how good was Murless really? Likewise Stoute, did he have the set-up and patrons that afforded the inevitable guarantee of success?
    Personally, Bustino, I'll always have more admiration for the trainer- or individual in any walk of life- who comes up from nothing and does it the hard way.
    Are the Stoutes and Murlesses of this world born with a silver spoon in their mouth, although I accept this is a little unkind?
    The fact that Stoute is not doing too well at the moment would never bother me. I'm not a lover of monopolies in anything, and the exclusivity of top owners and their breeding operations is a very mixed blessing as far as I'm concerned.
    I may be wrong-and please tell me if I am- but I feel the quality of top Group horses is declining overall, and that too few sires are determining which horses will carry off the spoils. If this is not true, then why are Group races declining in numbers of runners?
     
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  3. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Morning Tamerlo. I, too, wouldn't presume to have the knowledge, but it's a fact that trainers go through 'bad' years and this looks to me like a bad year for Stoute. Or is it? Am I just sensitive to those owner breeders I follow?
    If I was a betting man I'd be more concerned about backing a Stoute horse than I'd have been in previous years. The form of the horses is just not as robust as it has been in earlier years.

    No doubt he'll now have a fantastic last 6 weeks and end up with 90 winners. :grin:

    About George Todd I'd say he was his own man and probably like that all his life. Maybe Murless was more ready to take on difficult owners in his early years. He became his own man as he became successful.
     
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  4. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Very nice, thought-provoking article Bustino and you raise a number of very interesting questions. I think first and foremost the unfortunate loss of Ryan Moore's services has had an undoubted effect on the stable's fortunes. I think once we see him back in the plate things will start to improve, hopefully in time for the Arc but obviously these things cannot and should not be rushed.

    Any horses from Sheikh Hamdan have probably suffered from the ridiculous patronage that owner maintains for Richard Hills so it would be difficult to assess them on a level playing field. As for Ballymacoll, they have not really produced top class animals year-in, year-out in the manner of Coolemoore or Godolphin so I don't think SMS fortunes will rise and fall with that particular operation, admirable though they are.

    The virus hypothesy is interesting and in this day and age I guess there are all sorts of tests that can be done. But if they did discover something in the yard, might they try and "gloss over it" in order to protect the yards livelihood? I'm not saying they would, but you never know.

    The points you make on the yards 2YOs is very interesting and there does seem to be a marked shift in their performances on 1st, 2nd 3rd runs. It would be interesting to see any stats, but I do believe Price Khalid Abdullah sends his best 2YOs to Sir Henry. This is just a gut feeling mind you, but is it really a coincidence that Frankel's full brother is with Sir Henry? I also seem to remember (many years ago) that Maktoum-Al-Maktoum used to send his top horses to SMS (Rock Hopper springs to mind but I'm sure there were many others) - obviously that supply of horses has gone as well, as has the Aga Khan's patronage. It would be interesting to see a list of SMS horses with their owners - does such a thing exist??

    I think there are many small contributing factors responsible for the current poor season, but I'm sure he will turn it around and get back to the very top table.
     
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  5. Cyclonic

    Cyclonic Well Hung Member

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    Tamerlo: " I may be wrong-and please tell me if I am- but I feel the quality of top Group horses is declining overall, and that too few sires are determining which horses will carry off the spoils. If this is not true, then why are Group races declining in numbers of runners? "

    That's an interesting thought mate. I hadn't thought about it in that light.

    Bustino: I don't know what it is that dictates the ups and down of horse racing, or life for that matter. Is there such a thing as luck, or is it just something we read into situations to try and explain the unexplainable? Even the the mega spenders can sometimes have what for them is a drought. But there can be no doubt that if there is a thing called luck, then those who find themselves linked to the fabulously wealthy, are the ones who have the better chances in life. None of my friends, family or neighbours are billionaires, so my chances of leading in a winner at Royal Ascot f**ked. Does the horse make the trainer, or is it the other way around?
     
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  6. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Good article Bustino and some interesting discussion. I just don't feel qualified to add anything constructive. The only comment I would make is regarding the statement "One thing I've always found frustrating is the long game that Stoute plays with his horses. Many of his 2yos don't run and many, that do run, run only once or twice and not before mid-August. There is always the same pattern with the 2yo debuts. They are not put in the race........... ".

    Personally, I'm glad at least some trainers do this as I'm not a believer in 2yos having hard races before all their joints are fully fused. I would say this is the way to produce any horse thought to have a bright long term future on the track.

    The trouble is the main aim seems to be get a few G1s as quickly as possible and off to stud. I don't know but I would imagine, as a general rule, successful older horses do not have a hard 2yo season.
     
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  7. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Tamerlo (half of your post wasn't up first time when I answered).
    I'm not sure Stoute or Murless were born with silver spoons in their mouths. Read 'The Governor' about Murless and you'll see what I mean. Stoute may be well connected but I think he served his time in the UK and started right at the bottom. He was with Pat Rohan for most of his 'assistant' trainer days and then started very quietly in Newmarket in '71/'72. His first good horse was a cheap 2yo sprinter called Blue Cashmere in his 3rd or 4th season. He had no top owners but he grew from there because people were impressed with what they saw of his horses. Only Sir Henry got it served on a plate (twice) but I don't begrudge him that. Murless earnt his good owners over many years. To me he was the best trainer I've seen, and probably ever will.

    The reason I express concern is that the alternative to Stoute having an off year is that we are in danger of losing the very owners who've enriched the fabric of racing for countless years. Soon we will have a Maktoum horse, racing an Abdullah horse, racing a Coolmore horse......

    So I don't agree with much of what you say. But I do agree with your last point. I think the sire machine rules racing and ruins racing at the same time. I think you are dead right there. And I do think the inbreeding to Northern Dancer is possibly weakening the breed.

    Ron

    I'm not a believer in overreaching with 2yos but are you sure you're right. I listened to a racehorse vet saying the exact opposite of what you say. He said that the young 2yos are best served by getting out and galloping. The point he made was that people used to think as you say but that things have moved on and once a horse can gallop the best thing for him and his joints is to gallop: efectively to learn to use them properly.
    I don't like to see 2yos overworked but a famous vet, a certain Mr Johnston, isn't shy about running his horses as 2yos. Of course there are backward horses that can't be raced until they come to hand but is the idea of the breed to have horses that run 3 times by the the end of their 3yo career? Often that's the end of their flatracing careers.
    Don't know how you can gauge your final point. You are right they are whisked off to stud quickly. All I can say is that Ballymacoll's most successful older horse of the last 10 years was Conduit and he was the only 2yo of theirs I can recall running much as a 2yo because he ran 3 times. I can't think of that happening much over the last 10-15 years. Hern got far more races into some of these horses (Troy ran 4-5times as a 2yo). I'm not talking about 6 or 8 races as 2yos but if they can put one foot in fron t of the other get them out and get them running.
     
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  8. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Yes they need to gallop in order to develop the joints. But vigorous training in order to get them on a racecourse early means that these young horses will be subjected to tremendous strains on their joints before they are even 2 years old.
     
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  9. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Don't think I'm talking about getting them on the racecourse early. I'm talking about them getting on the racecourse at all.
     
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  10. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    <laugh>
     
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  11. mwildcats

    mwildcats Member

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    Cracking Article Bustino, I've a few suspicions and I will make sure I will reply
     
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  12. FulkesFestival40

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    If you read about the great trainers they are all very strong-willed and make the key decisions themselves - and invariably get things right. They also tend to have a great attention to detail. As age takes over they naturally want to slow down and often delegate more to others (assistant trainers, etc). Invariably these other people are less talented and mistakes are made - in the training of horses, placing in races, purchases, etc.
    I'm not sayng this is happening to Stoute yet as he won the Derby and Arc last year. For now I think we have to treat this season as a one off.

    I've just read the biography of Ryan Price. It is a cracking read but even a genius like Price had the odd bad year due to illness in the yard - but he always bounced back immediately.

    I believe Murless started in a humble way in Yorkshire.
     
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  13. Bluesky9

    Bluesky9 Philosopher

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    A very good article and really brings to the attention how poor a year SMS is having. I found the ballymcoll stat very alarming as if i had 30 horses of that quality and breeding with a trainer and ended up with 5 winners in a season i would really be asking questions. I wonder just how many Hamdan al Maktoum has across various trainers in the UK and what his winning stats are. I say this as i feel he has been underachieving for quite some time with regard the quality of his horses. I remember a time every big race would have a Hamdan horse in it with a fighting chance. I am not sure of the stats but imagine Khalid Abdullah would have less horses but more success. I look forward to reading Wildcats reply on the Stoute situation.
     
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  14. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Some replies....

    OddDog
    Sorry to miss you out yesterday but I'm in agreement with a lot of the points you make. I think a reliable stable jockey is a key thing in any stables success and Ryan Moore is obviously more than a reliable stable jockey. He probably has been missed. I don't like these owner:jockey agreements they don't often work. Maybe Carson: Hamdan was one of the exceptions, and the Eddery:prince Khaled one seemed to work, but they must be a bind for trainers. I'm sure Stoute will come back next year and have 100winners and be Champion trainer.

    Fulkes
    I'm sure you are right in all you say. Murless first started training a noticeable number of winners in Thirsk but I think he started with a bunch of mongrels somewhere in Cheshire and got a surprising number of successes with such a small lot of horses. After Thirsk he took the step to Beckhampton I think and finally to Newmarket. Luck is part of it but he always said he owed an enormous amount to Gordon Richards. A story is told in his biography where Murless and Richards reviewed the stables 2yos in March after having the whole lot gallop. As they walked back to the house they were both depressed and agreed they had an uninspiring lot that year. They decided to open a bottle of champagne and half an hour later began to think some might be useful with a bit of time. After two bottles more they both agreed that that they had a veritable stable of bird catchers.
    Unfortunately I can't put my hands on the Murless biography at the moment as way out east doesn't mean Lowestoft, so I can't be more certain of my facts.
    Who was the trainer Francome rode for who completely lost it as he got older? Francome said he became so protective of his horses health and their reputations that he went from a top trainer to zero in a couple of years (mid 70s?). I'm sure what you say and this sort of thing does happen. And yes he did win the Derby and the Arc (and the KGVI) last year so it's probably just a blip.

    Bluesky9
    Yes I'd hate to see the Hamdan statistics. The fact that he has Tregoning as a trainer , who again hardly runs a horse (whatever the reason), can't help. Yes I await to hear the comments of mwildcats.

    Ron
    Just some quick and dirty analysis on the 4yo or older horses that won the QE Mile race at Ascot over the period 1960 to 2008.

    In all I made it that 18 older horses won the race and as 2yos they ran 59 times (so just above 3 times each), and of those 59 races they won 28. Two outliers were Lahib who didn't run as a 2yo and Jan Ekels who ran 9 times. Half of the older winners ran 4 or more times.
     
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  15. Zenyatta

    Zenyatta Active Member

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    This aticle and the comments provided are very interesting and thought provoking. This is just the sort of 'outside the box' article that makes the forum so great.

    I think Stoute's season is most probably a blip, but an alarming one nevertheless. He was challenging for the trainer's title last season but the way his form has dropped off this year must be a cause for concern. He had his first blank Royal Ascot for something like 16 years, and aside from the odd impressive winner has enjoyed a truly dire year by his high standards. One factor in his favour is that he is likely to enjoy a certain degree of owner loyalty. I find it hard to see many jumping ship after one poor season. The man's history and past achievments mean he is likely to return to form, though not certain.

    One possible cause is a virus. These can be small and virtually undetected but need only have a tiny impact on the horse's performance and suddenly that 1/2 length winner becomes that 1/2 length loser. His plight seems to be comparable to that of Alan King over the sticks a couple of seasons ago. Though one obvious difference is that the virus that brought down Alan King was well known. And like King it might well be that many of his horses will be well handicapped as a result, and might be profitable to follow next season. It seems unlikely that a trainer with his resources couldn't eliminate any vetinary reasons for his horses running poorly but it might be that he is not willing to announce the problem to the wider world. I might be barking up the wrong tree completely but it would be the first thing that would occur to me. A brilliant trainer such as Stoute doesn't become as bad as this season would suggest in one season.

    It might also be that his form picks up in the back end of the year. In 2 months time he might have won the Arc, 2 races at the Breeder's Cup and a few other big prizes and everyone will have forgotten about his early season form.

    I await Wildcat's comments with interest.

    Bluesky, i have no idea about that numbers of Hamdan, but i do know that Abdulla has a lot in training! He does however have considerable success over the past few years to show for it. The same cannot be said for Hamdan.
     
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  16. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Interesting article and debate, and one I don't think we can truly conduct until we have the close of season results. SMS has had a relatively quiet time, with no Royal Ascot winner and what really surprises me is how slow a September they are having (3 winners is really shocking) and perhaps we are seeing something amiss in the yard. I however think that a yard with a strike rate of 16% must be classed as doing well and I do think the problem at the minute is that we are having a very strong season of older horses along with a good vintage of classic horses and horses such as Sea Moon and Carlton House have not been able to live up to their hype.

    However we still have Champions Day and the Arc, and two big wins at those meetings would propel this season towards being as good as the last one.

    I believe its not so much a problem with the yard but a problem with the horses not being up to previous exemplary standards and that could all change in the next month or so.
     
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  17. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    A 2,000quid handicap winner at Beverly yesterday. Modun sold to Godolphin and to be aimed at the Melbourne Cup then Dubai.
     
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  18. mwildcats

    mwildcats Member

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    Hi Bustino,

    Apologies for not coming back sooner and what you will read probably will not be what you were hoping for / comprehensive enough to be confident in the cause.

    You do make some very good points; perhaps the biggest is the trend of SMS 2yr old's and how they develop from their first to their 2nd run, we have probably seen more winners on debut than 2nd time out for SMS which is very unusual and for me that haven't progressed a great deal between the runs and therefore in my opinion it is not just bad luck.

    His crop as a whole this year haven't been up to previous high standards and with a lack of high profile horses winning the top races he has failed to light a spark on the flat scene never mind set it alight. There was some talking horses earlier in the year such as Carlton House and Fiorente and there was high hopes for Havant and she never failed to make a mark, however as a whole his crop is poor just look at the entries his yard has. So I don't think its a case of not performing with obvious talent.

    The loss of Ryan Moore has obviously had an effect but the yards form cant be dismissed just because of an injury to the main man.

    Is he getting old? He is (we all are getting older) and in the previous years he has passed a lot of responsibility down through his ranks, however one of the major reasons I can allude to is that SMS has lost a lot of experienced and talented staff within Freemasons Lodge which is 1 of the major reasons to explain the decline. They left quite early in this year 2011 after a major dispute in the yard (can't say why) and im not sure what quality replacements he's managed to recruit.

    Some may ask question the influence of staff on quality of horses but for me they have all to do with the success they know the yards culture, organisation and how they progress horses from their debut to the next in line with Stoute's philosophy so imo this reason coupled with the average crop received and a lack of older horses being consistent winning the big races has resulted in Stoute's decline in 2011.

    They have had some bad luck Eagles Peak as mentioned has been ruled out and retired Star Of Dance had high hopes and has performed creditably but has however fractured his shoulder but hopefully he'll be back next year.

    So no major news as such but this is what I know and hopefully it will add to the debate.
     
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  19. Dexter

    Dexter Well-Known Member

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    Interesting points by all.

    Perhaps SMS just has a batch that aren't as good as previous years.Still early to presume the worst.As stated,he doesn't rush his youngsters and could well have have some beauties still under wraps.

    He does tend to bring them on slowly late season and doesn't overface them.Not to say that is the only way to proceed with juveniles and all trainers have their own style.

    I can remember Derby winner Generous winning over 5f in May as a 2-y-o.Landseer won the Coventry stakes after debuting in April and had Rock Of Gibralter back in sixth,he also debuted in April in his 2-y-o days.

    Henrythenavigator also went on to classic glory after early season efforts.I think the trend has changed over recent years in that top 2-y-o's are not held to one run in a backend Newmarket maiden.

    The fact the Coventry is now a G2 would support that contention.

    Bustino,is it fair to say that the Ballymacoll bloodline is stamina laden and not really ideal for producing precocious youngsters,or indeed anything that performs at a high level over less than 10f.I notice this last couple of years that Invincible Spirit and Oasis Dream have been factored in to the offspring.Interesting to see how this developes.

    <laugh> Oddy,poor old Dickie Hills is now responsible for the temporary demise of Sir Michaels yard...I'm prepared to go along with that!
     
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  20. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    mwildcats
    excellent reply. That he has lost some staff is an interesting point that I hadn't considered and as you say must have some contributory factor. Your point about "just look at the entries his yard has" is a good one. Someone else pointed out that his strike rate (16%) wasn't bad and that's probably true but it's 16% of a lot less runners than there usually are. His horses aren't running, that's the point. So thank you for your thoughtful and broad reply.

    Dexter
    Yes I agree with you on the running of 2yos. Love him or hate him, AOB is not afraid to get his 2yos out early. George Washington debuted at the May Guineas meeting. Stoute seems to have got into a rut. He was actually earlier this year than usual, in 2009 he didn't run a 2yo until late August. For most flat horses that's a third of their career gone by.

    Being a Ballymacoll groupie I'm worried about where they've got to. They are too stamina laden. Go back 40 years and they'd use speedy sires like Princely Gift and good milers like Pall Mall and Petingo. I think they've overegged the pudding with far too much a reliance on Sadlers Wells, Galileo and Rainbow Quest. The current favourites seem to be Dalakhani and Azamour. I hope Oasis Dream and Invincible Spirit will do the trick but it may take a generation to pass before their effect is seen. Also Oasis Dream, especially, appears to be able to get horses to stay any distance you want so he may not be the answer. I think the other problem is that far too many of their mares have not run. There must be a reason why they haven't run but if they pass that on it's a recipe for disaster. And far too many of their horses never run!!!!

    Having said all that it is only one year of disappointing results. SMS is a great trainer and hopefully will have the experience to turn things around. Let's hope so.
     
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