Off Topic Israel

@Commachio

 

Still more words used than needed....sorry

 

Labour are on the case to end the conflict

 

Listen to them that know

 

Looking like Netanyahu mught be out on his arse soon.

Nationalist Naftali Bennet and Centrist Yair Lapid are working on forming a coalition Govt that will see both men share the premiership on a rotation basis. The coalition would bring together factions from the right, left and centre of politics.

Netanyahu is trying to ramp up the fear, at the prospect of losing his grip on power

"Don't form a left-wing government - such a government is a danger to Israel's security and future," "Who will take care of settlements?"

Thoughts @Treble @C. Kane ?

 

Looking at Lapid's proposed coalition partners it is clear that the one thing, literally the one thing they share, is a disdain of Netanyahu.

My biggest concern is that a govt that runs on a manifesto of simply winning, faces an immediate political crisis the day after it has won which is "now what?". More or less any big issue would bring this coalition to its knees, trigger a 5th election and Netanyahu - who has the sticking power of a stubborn clam, will turn round to the public and say 'see? told you they have no idea what they are doing.' He'll say this and get away with it even though he has built 4 dysfunctional governments in 2 years, because he is a masterful politician who understands spin better than any Israeli alive.

To my mind, if Lapid succeeds the first thing he needs to do is convert that disdain for Netanyahu into a tangible outcome. Which can only be electoral reform. Lapid can only do this by installing an anti-Netanyahu House Speaker who will push various bills designed to either force a PM under indictment to step down (unlikely to galvanise cross-house support) or to limit a PM to 2 consecutive terms in office (more likely to pass; even some Likud MKs might vote for this).

He won't attempt bigger reforms (such as raising the threshold or implementing some elements of FPTP) because such measures would kill half his coalition parties in the next electoral cycle.

The other slim option is that the Lapid govt holds on long enough for Netanyahu to be found guilty on his bribery charges, but that's not a guarantee.

Bottom line is, the proposed coalition would be very strange bedfellows. The breakdown would be as follows and I'll "translate" each party as closely as I can into its UK equivalent to paint a picture of how fragile this alliance would be:

Yesh Atid (Blairite Labour)
Blue and White (Tories under Cameron)
New Hope (Tories under Johnson)
Yamina (BNP)
Yisrael Beiteinu (UKIP)
Meretz (Greens)
Labour (Corbyn Labour)
Ra'am (Sinn Fein/SNP)

 

Bank Holiday sweep stake.

New Hope it is then for me

@Archers Road will be all over the Corbyn Labour equivalent.

 

Sounds like an episode of Star Wars.

Darth Netanyahu’s evil empire is about to come crumbling down

 

I posted on this last week. I was hoping Lapid would become PM but it looks like in order to secure a Cooalition, he agreed for Bennett to become PM who is even further right to Netanyahu. As CK has stated it's a fragile coalition and it's going to be tested to the extreme - literally!

The plan btw from what I've read is that Bennett will lead the coalition for a couple of years with an agreement that Lapid will take over as PM. Seriously? How often have you heard of a far-right leader giving up power to anyone? Ever read the history of Hitler taking over the German parliament to become Chancellor?

Above all, this shows just how fcked the electoral system in the Knesset/Israel is. It's a farce of their own making.

Jan Egeland - one of the key people involved in Oslo has called it well regarding the peace process... weak leadership all round.

 

I've never pretended to know anything about this situation, and I was a bit surprised by Piskie's joy the other day when I read his comment. Because it certainly read different to a media report I had heard on TV. But as I say I don't have the knowledge to challenge it, but I know Piskie often talks bolloxs anyway. From what I heard the far right were going to be very much in control on Netty's departure.

Edit: and if people think that decades of fighting is going to stop on Netty's departure, then I feel they are very much deluded.

 

I was hoping, if that coalition was going to happen, that Lapid would be PM. I'd have been happy with that.

The disparity in all the parties involved, means it's going to be a huge challenge trying to prevent it from all collapsing the minute they start actually governing, I'd rather have Lapid in charge.

Having said that, the vast majority of the priorities for any Israeli government is going to be domestic issues e.g. corruption, education, public services, the economy (the Palestinian issue is often a footnote when you look at their ethos and what they stand for) so maybe they can make headway of those domestic policies they can easily find compromise on. Not that, that helps the main focus of this thread and any meaningful peace process.

Here's something else to highlight, if Bennett becomes PM, he leads a Party which has just 7 seats.... in a Knesset with 120 seats. Democracy!

 

Like I say, I don't pretend to understand it all, but I do understand this, if the Israeli's have control the fighting will continue, if Hamas are in control, they likewise will want Israel wiped off the map. Who's ever in charge ain't going to change anything other than the demographics.

 

He would be, albeit under a rotational basis. Bennet is a far right politician, but a coalition govt would temper the worst of it, with a centrist in Lapid as well as other moderate voices in the Govt.

 

Lol.

I'd like to see the back of Netanyahu because I think he's a despicable ****. Thankfully most of Israel's other politicians seem to feel the same way. I know that Bennet is another right wing nut job, but in a coalition Govt, he would be tempered by moderate voices, and would have to share the premiership with the centrist Lapid.

 

He will be tempered by it. Even though the PM in Israel wields more power than the PM does here (but less so than the President of the USA), any major policy decision needs to be approved at cabinet level - and cabinet ministers can only be approved with the Kenesset's say-so. Even if Bennett somehow managed to shoehorn all 6 of his MKs into ministries (highly unlikely), his bloc will still constitute an insignificant minority of the 21-25 members of the cabinet, and he will be unable to push through any of his more controversial policies (something Netanyahu underlines when he says 'who will look after the settlers?').

Lapid also realises that to get rid of Netanyahu in the long-term, he needs to wean the Likud's traditional voter base away from him, toward a different right-wing figurehead. It's a delicate, dangerous political game, but Lapid needs to allow Bennett to shine just enough to break the Likud party, but not so much that he ends up siphoning off enough voters to establish Yamina as a real threat. Put numerically: Lapid was returned with 17 seats, Netanyahu with 30 and Bennett with 7. Lapid needs Bennett to take around 6 seats away from Likud while Yesh Atid pinches 2 or 3 from Likud and another 2 or 3 from Blue and White, and that effectively ends the Likud's grip on power in this electoral generation while securing Yesh Atid without making Bennett too powerful. Like I said, it's a dangerous game.

 

Although PR in Israel makes a majority govt difficult, and produces the sort of back room deal making that we're seeing in forming a coalition. It does at least ensure that the very worst of nationalistic right wing politicians aren't given free reign with a simple majority

 

I disagree. Netanyahu's been in power for the majority of the past 25 years. If you're right wing then you'll get your majority from fringe parties who will likely be even more right wing than you. That's been the way under Netty.

Bennett is in the unique position of becoming PM leading an extreme right wing minority party so naturally the pull can only come from anyone less right wing than him. If that's what it takes to reign in the extreme right then heaven help Israel and the Palestinians.

 

That's certainly true for Netanyahu, as he's been able to garner support from Orthadox and right wing politicians to prop him up when he's not had a majority. It might be a different landscape with Lapid though, as he will be seeking moderate voices in any Coalition, and more importantly if they can make a deal, he will be PM at some point.

That said, if a deal is done, Bennet will also be PM so it's an extremely fragile alliance and a worrying situation with an extreme right wing politician taking the helm. But, his power base will be dependent on more moderate voices.

 

The fundamental problem with the religious on both sides is that they are fundamentalists

It comes down to a matter of dogma and principle which is just as much a problem within Israel as it is for Palestinians, but never gets the same attention. There are certain issues which I'm sure Bennett/Yamina will want to take in a specific direction, and others which they won't budge on. And as soon as they encounter those I fear he'll ditch the government over it if he has to, come what may.