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LFC Stats and Analytics

Discussion in 'Liverpool' started by Jimmy Squarefoot, Nov 2, 2020.

  1. InBiscanWeTrust

    InBiscanWeTrust Rome, London, Paris, Rome, Istanbul, Madrid
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    That makes much more sense now.

    My only other improvement would be the way you’ve done your key table and why you’ve not got all 19/20 along the top with the comparison 23/24 underneath it for easy reading <whistle>
     
    #941
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  2. moreinjuredthanowen

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    anything bar do actual work on a monday <ok>

    I'll just say biscan gave me an assignment.
     
    #942
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  3. D'Arne Milk

    D'Arne Milk Well-Known Member

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    Essentially without looking at data you can say "we've done well against mid table and lower teams and not great against top of the table teams".

    Essentially we're performing like you'd expect a team fighting for fourth to perform. I stick by my preseason prediction of 4th this year.

    It won't be necessarily those above us that will finish above us (I doubt Spurs will be top four for example).
     
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  4. moreinjuredthanowen

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    yeah. think thats about it.

    looks good in a, well not expecting huge things just yet, sort of way.

    I still think europa league and 4th is a good return from this present season.
     
    #944
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  5. moreinjuredthanowen

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    time to reflect on another block of 4 games.

    First off block 3 was a very clear bottom half block where 12 points were possible and we failed to deliver. however 10 points out of 12 were taken with 9 goals scored and 1 conceded.

    Our points trend then, Its pretty clear we are all "behind" the absolute top seasons of the past 5 years given we are only a point off city while being 7 off 2019/20 and 3 off 2018/19.

    If you want to think positively then we are 2 points aehad of 21/22 where we nearly did a Quad.

    If you want to be negative then we are also only 2 points ahead of 2020/21 where we scraped 4th with 69 points.

    upload_2023-11-13_9-45-3.png

    Now the blocks:
    upload_2023-11-13_9-48-14.png


    Now top half v bottom half:
    The bottom half:
    Games played 6
    Goals scored 15
    Goal conceded 3
    Games won 5
    Games drawn 1
    Games lost 0
    Win ratio 84%
    Draw ratio 16%
    Loss ratio 0%
    Goals per game 2.50
    Goals conceded per game 0.50

    Looks pretty ok barring that awful awful performance v luton 0.5 goals per game against.

    The top half:
    Games played 6
    Goals scored 12
    Goal conceded 8
    Games won 3
    Games drawn 2
    Games lost 1
    Win ratio 50%
    Draw ratio 33%
    Loss ratio 17%
    Goals per game 2.00
    Goals conceded per game 1.3

    Not very pretty reading to be honest. 8 goals conceded in 6 games with 2 v spurs with 9men and 2 v brighton in a bit of a shambolic show.

    Theres a lot of goals going in against the slightly better sides which is not abnormal so again the optimists can point to 2 goals per game rate of scoring.


    Now the Super League Table; this year the usual scabs have been joined by the beheading oil barons.

    upload_2023-11-13_10-1-28.png

    upload_2023-11-13_10-4-23.png

    Some big points coming out as to why A club like utd who can claim to be "in form" are actually "in crisis" 3 top 7 clashes and 3 heavy defeats.

    Arsenal will actually be happy to have 5 of thier games played compared to our 3 and be level.

    The performance table against the "rest" is showing why I am so scathing of dropping 2 points v luton when we needed to be winning by 4 or 5 goals. When city get round to being on level games they will likely be ahead of us in that table. Its that close between the two teams. You simply must must must win the games against the rest home and away to have any hope.

    Man utd have 21 points purely by playing the lower teams. They have not a thing to show for turning in against the clubs they are seeking to rival.

    cheslea are nowhere as they cannot breakdown low blocks. Their form against the 6 rivals is actually lost of goals at both ends but holding their own.

    Newcastle are showing their true small minded manager mentality by "keeping it tight" against the big boys while scoring freely elsewhere.

    Now finally: Comparing this season to our perfect season of 2019/20

    upload_2023-11-13_10-9-45.png

    upload_2023-11-13_10-9-55.png

    Our goal scoring this season is consistent and actually better than the pure wilful grinding of results time after time in 2019/20.

    Our block 2 was ruined by goals conceded but overall you'll see we are actually remarkably similar to 2019/20 in terms of the overall numbers.

    This just points to a bit of tidying up to do. Brighton we actually lead but could not get the job done. Luton we were poor but conceded a goal as well stupidly. Spurs was a travesty of reffing nobody could really fix bar pulling out of tackles. Chelsea away on the opening day was a side under cooked.

    Add 7 points to today's total of 27 just by being a bit more ruthless and we are well clear and on 2019/20 form. this is with gelling a "new 2.0" side together.

    the games to the midpoint of the season are:
    Manchester City (a)
    Fulham (h)
    Sheffield United (a)
    Crystal Palace (a)
    Manchester United (h)
    Arsenal (h)
    Burnley (a)

    Theres 3 must wins in there that are lower half. Theres another v palace that will be very tough as they've some good players.

    there's 3 massive massive games in the top 7, two of which are at home.

    21 points. if we are unbeaten and take 17 out of 21 that would be a huge achievement imo. That would put us within reach of the magic 90 points total again.
     

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  6. Nozzer

    Nozzer Well-Known Member

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    We've dropped points in four games this season. Draws away to Chelsea and Brighton are not amazing but ok. The Spurs game is frustrating, but everything went against us that day (red cards, disallowed goals, injury to Gakpo, own goal etc.), so you just have to brush it off and move on. The draw at Luton, and the performance, is the stand-out bad day. But one poor result in 12 games is pretty good. Maybe not quite win the league good, but a damn sight better than last year (so far).
     
    #946
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  7. moreinjuredthanowen

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    It is, that Chelsea game really smacked of not knowing each other. If that second goal is onside and cheslea cave then it doesn't register. We fell apart and panicked over james running forward. Macallister couldn't cope with sterling in t he hole when he shoudl have pocketed him ec.

    Brighton was just poor. Thats not getting the job done when you get ahead. they have not been good all really with the extra games.

    Spurs was the ref and a very high probability that both he and the var were got at while aboard.

    Luton was a poor game from a lot of players who looked "a bit tired" we played Bournemouth in the league cup in a gale and played szoboslzi up top for 75mins. he was massively off the pace v luton for example. Again one of the 7 or 8 lashings of the ball at goal by nunez goes in and we look ok.

    If its 4th you want no ne of these matter.

    If its 1st you want then you'd say we have lost 4 points there we shouldn't be losing.

    we have to remember our PPG over 12 games is 85.5. add 4 after 12 games and that jumps to 98. Obviously that just doesn't ever translate but the best way of putting it is there's 4 points we won't be getting back.

    Right now I think we are all probably chuffed about the start but would probably we wanting more than a 4th place out of it.

    I had hoped for 4th plus winning the europa having watched preseason so we now look to have a decent shot at minimum 3rd, a league cup and the europa ;)

    Another 2 windows and i think we might be competing on all fronts. I just don't see us competing for both europa and the league as the back ups are not quite there are they?
     
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  8. redcgull

    redcgull Well-Known Member

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    Don't forget that we robbed Newcastle, shouldn't have gotten away with the win there, so technically 3 points better off with that result than we should be...!!

    It will only take note when you get to the final 6-8 fixtures when looking back you can say that was a bad result, that was a good result. all the other teams will be the same...

    I think we are top 4 all day, maybe even top 2... Long way to go and all that, but the season is going ok in reality...<ok>
     
    #948
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  9. organic red

    organic red Well-Known Member

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    Then again you could argue we were robbed of points at Spurs.

    I agree we look top 4,where in that top 4 is a difficult call atm. dependent on many things.
     
    #949
  10. moreinjuredthanowen

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    I'd argue that the ref probably robbed us blind with send off vvd.
     
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  11. organic red

    organic red Well-Known Member

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    That was a red all day by the letter of the law
     
    #951
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  12. moreinjuredthanowen

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    meh, a city player would be let off.
     
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  13. Zanjinho

    Zanjinho Boom!
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    And that then would be the dodgy part
     
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  14. moreinjuredthanowen

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    lfc away days that are done already.

    chelsea
    City
    Spurs
    Newcastle
    Brighton



    li
     
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  15. moreinjuredthanowen

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    upload_2023-12-4_14-7-18.png

    All changed in quick order. 2 Newcastle wins and they are up there with city. weves barely held our own and utd still look utd.

    the amount of goals all the sides are conceding to each other is amazing this year.
     
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  16. Gerrardsitchyear

    Gerrardsitchyear Well-Known Member

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    All change when you consider pts per game.

    Barcodes = 1.8
    Arse = 1.6
    Spuds = 1.6
    Citeh = 1.5
    Liv = 1.25
    Chels = 1.2
    Utd = 0
     
    #956
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  17. moreinjuredthanowen

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    that is true, plus who had played who and where. City's 6 games are chelsea, arsenal and utd away done But leaving us, newcastle and spurs away to come.

    It says to me that City have get a lot of games out of the way though but have to be beaten at anfield.

    Newcastle hvae done well recently with the tight results going their way. 1-0 v arsneal, 4-1 v cheslea ;) and 1-0 v utd. they seem to like a side that comes at them so they can sit back a bit but they don't like that being done to them.

    We have 3 massive ones coming up one adfter the other now and it'll make our break the season. Utd, Arsenal and newcastle. all at fortress anfield. 7 points from 9 or 9 from 9 and we are away.
     
    #957
  18. InBiscanWeTrust

    InBiscanWeTrust Rome, London, Paris, Rome, Istanbul, Madrid
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    Have to also take into account home and away.

    In theory. Draw all your away games against them and then win your home games.

    In that case we’re doing fine as we’ve had 4 away games and got 5 points.
     
    #958
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  19. moreinjuredthanowen

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    this is true, the pay off has to come for us in the home games.
     
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  20. InBiscanWeTrust

    InBiscanWeTrust Rome, London, Paris, Rome, Istanbul, Madrid
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    Yeah those away draws mean nothing if you don’t win your home games against them
     
    #960

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