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Off Topic Lies, Damned Lies and STATISTICS!!!!

Discussion in 'Norwich City' started by JM Fan, Oct 1, 2018.

  1. JM Fan

    JM Fan Well-Known Member

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    Also, look at the loan players at the likes of FLDC and Villa
     
    #61
  2. Phuketcanary

    Phuketcanary Well-Known Member

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    time for stat update.

    So everything about our remaining games points to us having a golden opportunity here. We play the fewest top 7 sides now, we play the fewest top half teams, we play the lowest positioned teams on average, and even better we play teams who are mostly out of form.

    Think about this. Our next 4 games are against teams ranked 15th 16th 17th and 18th in the form guide currently.

    Surely there's never been a kinder fixture list? Especially considering we are currently top and 2 points clear before any of these games have been played.

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    #62
  3. Canary Rob

    Canary Rob Well-Known Member

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    Great statting battersea
     
    #63
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  4. Phuketcanary

    Phuketcanary Well-Known Member

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    Cheers Rob. I'm blushing a little.
     
    #64
  5. Phuketcanary

    Phuketcanary Well-Known Member

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    Few changes and additions.
    1. Boro was incorrect (forgot the games in hand they have)
    2. Added Bristol and Derby
    3. Added an addition form guide based on home and away form.

    Whats that you say? everything still looks awesomely poised for us, no matter what new data you add? Why YES good sir, so it does!

    Finally lets look at what each team needs to do to get to promotion form (2 pts a game).
    Think of it like a mini run in. No team is currently on the pace, so all would need to go on winning runs to get there.

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    For me this table shows how important the next sequence of games are for us.
    (And how based on their consistency, or lack thereof, If West Brom or Boro are going to challenge the auto spots its will likely be very near the end of the season on current form)

    Much as i've shown how we have the 'easier' run in on paper, during the last 6 or so games of a season form goes out the window, especially when you've got teams at the bottom going into 'last stand mode.' (i hope Wigan are safe by the time we play them for example).

    If we can string together 3 wins over the next few games we'll be in the driving seat in a way that no side has cemented yet this year.

    And the fixtures are promising. Yes the Den is an unhappy hunting ground, but look at the form all three are in (Millwall H, Swansea and Hull A)

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    I know i know 'it's just statistics!' 'the game is decided on the pitch!' but i genuinely feel that we might well look back on the last few months of this year and realize that that was when we actually did the real work that got us promoted.
     
    #65
    Last edited: Feb 24, 2019
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  6. Phuketcanary

    Phuketcanary Well-Known Member

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    #66
  7. Phuketcanary

    Phuketcanary Well-Known Member

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    #67
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  8. RiverEndRick

    RiverEndRick Well-Known Member

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    Yes, we're in good shape after Boro, with a 5 point lead over Leeds and 7 points over the Blades. With home games against QPR and Reading next up, our stats position is even better than your previous table. IF we win those, time will start running out for those behind us, who both play top 6 chasing Preston away. My one concern is fatigue if DF persists with an unchanged team. At the very least, we should be using subs earlier. Even with that though, our chances are looking good.
     
    #68
  9. Canary Rob

    Canary Rob Well-Known Member

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    !! That makes us the (joint) third highest points collected in the nine seasons you’ve assessed, and having a quick glance at earlier seasons I think it’s likely to be surpassed only by Newcastle in 09-10 and Reading in their record breaking 05-06 season.
     
    #69
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  10. JM Fan

    JM Fan Well-Known Member

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    And we thought we had to witness dire football last season. Spare a thought for Bees’ and Potters’ fans

    Brentford have failed to score with any of their last 57 shots in the Championship. It has been 287 minutes since Said Benrahma's goal in the 2-1 win at Middlesbrough on March 9. They went on to have a further two attempts in that game, and have subsequently fired three consecutive blanks, including at the weekend against Wigan.
    Some Stats
    Shots 579 2nd
    On target 204 2nd
    Chances created 459 2nd
    Conversion rate 10.4% 12th

    Meanwhile - Stoke's run of 0-0s
    Stoke were held to a goalless draw by Sheffield Wednesday on Saturday and have now drawn each of their last four league games 0-0. That makes them the first side to be involved in four consecutive goalless draws in England's top four divisions since Arsenal in February 2009.

    By contrast – we have failed to score only twice Leeds and Stoke and that was nearly 6 months ago!!! <yikes> :emoticon-0102-bigsm
     
    #70

  11. Phuketcanary

    Phuketcanary Well-Known Member

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    Clinical against bottom half sides.
     
    #71
  12. Canary Rob

    Canary Rob Well-Known Member

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    Wow that is a fantastic table, thanks for this

    We are extremely consistent against everyone outside the top six. Bit of a worry there as the top six will form our key opponents if we get promoted. However, I feel like our form against them has improved as the season has gone on. Might be wrong, but that’s how it feels.
     
    #72
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  13. Phuketcanary

    Phuketcanary Well-Known Member

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    These are copied from WACCOE, they have some awesome stats work going on. Here's Sheffield and Leeds too.

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    And yes you're not wrong

    To quote another poster


    'I'm not sure this is an entirely fair reflection, that August month where we lost three games to the current 2nd, 3rd and 4th teams are a very distant memory and a lot has changed since then. I mean that August is 50% of our total season losses

    Recently we've named an unchanged side for the last 7 games (I think), of that starting eleven only 5 players remain from August (Krul, Lewis, Trybull, Hernandez and Pukki) we are a very different side and vastly improved.

    Pukki was playing on the right wing, Max Arrons and Ben Godfrey were yet to take their place in defence, Hanley was Captain! in midfield Buendia was injured, Stiepermann was yet to play in his preferred role.'


    Oh and based on the form, we will finish on 96, Leeds on 89, and Sheffield 86.
     
    #73
    Last edited: Apr 2, 2019
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  14. Phuketcanary

    Phuketcanary Well-Known Member

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    #74
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  15. General Melchett

    General Melchett Well-Known Member

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    If the Binners can average 9.43pts per game they might yet catch us!

    Bah!
     
    #75
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  16. tricky1664

    tricky1664 Active Member

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    1 more point and we are guaranteed a play off place
     
    #76
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  17. JM Fan

    JM Fan Well-Known Member

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    Scary when you vonscons that most fans at the start of the season didn't even think we'd be in the top 10!! :emoticon-0102-bigsm
     
    #77
  18. Phuketcanary

    Phuketcanary Well-Known Member

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    update comparing position and final finish from previous seasons. Worryingly for Leeds/sheffield, they are starting to keep company with people who either didnt make autos or didnt get promotion at all.




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    key- bold = promoted
    bold italics = via autos
     
    #78
  19. JM Fan

    JM Fan Well-Known Member

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    Our season to date and the number of defeats is unbelievable -

    18-19.jpg
     
    #79
  20. canary-dave

    canary-dave Well-Known Member

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    I hope it won't happen but if we lose our final two games, we'll still have lost fewer than any other team. Astonishing <cheers>
     
    #80
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