time for stat update. So everything about our remaining games points to us having a golden opportunity here. We play the fewest top 7 sides now, we play the fewest top half teams, we play the lowest positioned teams on average, and even better we play teams who are mostly out of form. Think about this. Our next 4 games are against teams ranked 15th 16th 17th and 18th in the form guide currently. Surely there's never been a kinder fixture list? Especially considering we are currently top and 2 points clear before any of these games have been played. please log in to view this image
please log in to view this image Few changes and additions. 1. Boro was incorrect (forgot the games in hand they have) 2. Added Bristol and Derby 3. Added an addition form guide based on home and away form. Whats that you say? everything still looks awesomely poised for us, no matter what new data you add? Why YES good sir, so it does! Finally lets look at what each team needs to do to get to promotion form (2 pts a game). Think of it like a mini run in. No team is currently on the pace, so all would need to go on winning runs to get there. please log in to view this image For me this table shows how important the next sequence of games are for us. (And how based on their consistency, or lack thereof, If West Brom or Boro are going to challenge the auto spots its will likely be very near the end of the season on current form) Much as i've shown how we have the 'easier' run in on paper, during the last 6 or so games of a season form goes out the window, especially when you've got teams at the bottom going into 'last stand mode.' (i hope Wigan are safe by the time we play them for example). If we can string together 3 wins over the next few games we'll be in the driving seat in a way that no side has cemented yet this year. And the fixtures are promising. Yes the Den is an unhappy hunting ground, but look at the form all three are in (Millwall H, Swansea and Hull A) please log in to view this image I know i know 'it's just statistics!' 'the game is decided on the pitch!' but i genuinely feel that we might well look back on the last few months of this year and realize that that was when we actually did the real work that got us promoted.
Yes, we're in good shape after Boro, with a 5 point lead over Leeds and 7 points over the Blades. With home games against QPR and Reading next up, our stats position is even better than your previous table. IF we win those, time will start running out for those behind us, who both play top 6 chasing Preston away. My one concern is fatigue if DF persists with an unchanged team. At the very least, we should be using subs earlier. Even with that though, our chances are looking good.
!! That makes us the (joint) third highest points collected in the nine seasons you’ve assessed, and having a quick glance at earlier seasons I think it’s likely to be surpassed only by Newcastle in 09-10 and Reading in their record breaking 05-06 season.
And we thought we had to witness dire football last season. Spare a thought for Bees’ and Potters’ fans Brentford have failed to score with any of their last 57 shots in the Championship. It has been 287 minutes since Said Benrahma's goal in the 2-1 win at Middlesbrough on March 9. They went on to have a further two attempts in that game, and have subsequently fired three consecutive blanks, including at the weekend against Wigan. Some Stats Shots 579 2nd On target 204 2nd Chances created 459 2nd Conversion rate 10.4% 12th Meanwhile - Stoke's run of 0-0s Stoke were held to a goalless draw by Sheffield Wednesday on Saturday and have now drawn each of their last four league games 0-0. That makes them the first side to be involved in four consecutive goalless draws in England's top four divisions since Arsenal in February 2009. By contrast – we have failed to score only twice Leeds and Stoke and that was nearly 6 months ago!!!
Wow that is a fantastic table, thanks for this We are extremely consistent against everyone outside the top six. Bit of a worry there as the top six will form our key opponents if we get promoted. However, I feel like our form against them has improved as the season has gone on. Might be wrong, but that’s how it feels.
These are copied from WACCOE, they have some awesome stats work going on. Here's Sheffield and Leeds too. please log in to view this image please log in to view this image And yes you're not wrong To quote another poster 'I'm not sure this is an entirely fair reflection, that August month where we lost three games to the current 2nd, 3rd and 4th teams are a very distant memory and a lot has changed since then. I mean that August is 50% of our total season losses Recently we've named an unchanged side for the last 7 games (I think), of that starting eleven only 5 players remain from August (Krul, Lewis, Trybull, Hernandez and Pukki) we are a very different side and vastly improved. Pukki was playing on the right wing, Max Arrons and Ben Godfrey were yet to take their place in defence, Hanley was Captain! in midfield Buendia was injured, Stiepermann was yet to play in his preferred role.' Oh and based on the form, we will finish on 96, Leeds on 89, and Sheffield 86.
Scary when you vonscons that most fans at the start of the season didn't even think we'd be in the top 10!!
update comparing position and final finish from previous seasons. Worryingly for Leeds/sheffield, they are starting to keep company with people who either didnt make autos or didnt get promotion at all. please log in to view this image key- bold = promoted bold italics = via autos
I hope it won't happen but if we lose our final two games, we'll still have lost fewer than any other team. Astonishing