Nass's System testing thread

Hi all,

Finally the flat is back with us, and after a couple of days at NH racing, its time to stop watching the racing and form reading, and concentrate on being lazy!!

So I want to test a few systems - No better place to show how good/bad it is going!!

All bets are placed at BSP - because I am too lazy to work out when is best to place the bet!

Time Course Horse System Bet
13:00 Redcar Lola's Moment 2YO-Sires_MarchApril 2
13:00 Redcar Zephina 2YO-DamSires_MarchApril 2
13:00 Redcar Primrose Ridge 2YO-DamSires_MarchApril 0
14:05 Redcar Louby Lou Big Prices - top Speed but low BHA Official Rank 2
14:05 Redcar Captain Claret April Trainers - First time out 2
14:05 Redcar Kylie Rules April Trainers - First time out 2
14:15 Windsor Sunningdale 2YO-Sires_MarchApril 1
14:15 Windsor Refine 2YO-Sires_MarchApril 1
14:15 Windsor Refine 2YO-DamSires_MarchApril 1
14:15 Windsor Get Busy 2YO-DamSires_MarchApril 1
14:15 Windsor Dazzling Gem 2YO-DamSires_MarchApril 1
14:40 Redcar Stanley Snugfit Big Prices - top Speed but low BHA Official Rank 1
14:50 Windsor Smeaton's Light April Trainers - First time out 2
14:50 Windsor Coco Bear April Trainers - First time out 2
14:50 Windsor Indian Creak April Trainers - First time out 2
15:15 Redcar Copper And Five April Trainers - First time out 2
15:15 Redcar Crownthorpe April Trainers - First time out 2
15:25 Windsor New Heights April Trainers - First time out 2
16:20 Redcar Quercus Robur Staying handicap sires <40.0 bsp 1
16:20 Redcar Puntastic April Trainers - First time out 1
16:20 Redcar Mister Camacho April Trainers - First time out 1
16:20 Redcar Hilts April Trainers - First time out 1
16:30 Windsor Newton Jack April Trainers - First time out 2
16:53 Redcar Jackamundo Staying handicap sires <40.0 bsp 2
17:00 Windsor Mark Of Respect April Trainers - First time out 1
17:00 Windsor Dourado April Trainers - First time out 1
17:30 Windsor Pavlodar April Trainers - First time out 2


so day 1 - 40 staked.

Happy to answer any questions as this thread goes along.

 

What percentage of April and May juveniles are won by horses that have already had a run?

 

Since 2010

386 races had horses with 1 or more starts previously - 179 of those races were won by horses with one or more previous start - 46% of the races are won by horses with one or more start.

However, that includes 1056 horses.

The ROI for those races at BSP are

0 runs - 16% ROI
1 runs - 6.7% ROI
2 runs - 80% ROI
3 runs - -74%
4 runs - -100%

What that shows is that you have to back big prices at BSP!!!

If you looked at all of those different groups at normal SP you would be losing money backing any of those groups.

 

Two winners but unfortunately at short prices. 3.01 and 3.78 respectively and a non runner too!

Not too disheartened as plenty ran well.

-27.55

(40 staked)

 

Favourites finishing positions (oldest to latest): ,2,2,3,1,2,2,1,1,2,2,1,1,3,3,2,1,3,2,(1,2),1

The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well.

• 20 / 20 (78%) - 1-8 Starts over 2m
• 20 / 20 (84%) - Had 4-15 placings (Non-Hcps)
• 20 / 20 (84%) - Not G3/Lst/Cl4/Cl5 (LTO)
• 20 / 20 (85%) - Not Lst/Cl4/Cl6 (Last Win)
• 20 / 20 (86%) - Carried 156 lbs or more (LTO)
• 20 / 20 (86%) - Furthest ran 2m1f - 2m5½f
• 20 / 20 (87%) - Had placed over 2m1f+
• 20 / 20 (88%) - Furthest won 2m½f - 2m5f
• 20 / 20 (89%) - Had won over further
• 20 / 20 (89%) - Made 1-3 starts (90 Days)
• 19 / 20 (46%) - No bigger than 6/1
• 19 / 20 (61%) - Within first four of market
• 19 / 20 (65%) - First 3 or Fell (LTO)
• 19 / 20 (80%) - 6-15 starts in Non-Handicaps
• 19 / 20 (81%) - Contested at least a Grade 2
• 18 / 20 (61%) - Had placed in a Graded race

 

It’s a shocking race. Must be worth less than it was a decade ago too.

 

13:00 Pontefract Lucky Draw Big Prices - top Speed but low BHA Official Rank 2
13:00 Pontefract Magna Moralia April Trainers - First time out 2
13:00 Pontefract Alsithee April Trainers - First time out 2
14:40 Pontefract Baryshnikov April Trainers - First time out 2
14:40 Pontefract Peter The Great April Trainers - First time out 2
15:15 Pontefract Buckshaw Village April Trainers - First time out 2
16:25 Pontefract Star Of St James Big Prices - top Speed but low BHA Official Rank 2

14 staked today

 

That's better! 24.5 winner of the first with Magna Moralia and the patient Rhys Clutterbuck.

 

Two good price winners for the day, with Magna Moralia (24.5) and Baryshnikov (27.7) winning for the systems. A good day!!

Bank now stands at +62.81 points after day 2

I won't do ROI or anything similar just yet!

 

Todays horses

13:00 Catterick Boudica Bay April Trainers - First time out 2
13:00 Catterick Spanish Angel April Trainers - First time out 2
13:30 Catterick Queen Spirit April Trainers - First time out 2
13:30 Catterick Next Second April Trainers - First time out 2
13:40 Nottingham Shared First run 3 year old April 2
14:15 Nottingham Signorina Merisi April Trainers - First time out 2
14:50 Nottingham Whistledown April Trainers - First time out 2
15:15 Catterick Redrosezorro April Trainers - First time out 2
15:15 Catterick Blowing Wind April Trainers - First time out 2
15:50 Catterick Jamil Staying handicap sires <40.0 bsp 2
15:50 Catterick O'Reilly's Pass April Trainers - First time out 1
15:50 Catterick Will He Dance Staying handicap sires <40.0 bsp 2
16:20 Catterick Mystic Moonshadow April Trainers - First time out 2
16:30 Nottingham Hartswood April Trainers - First time out 2

 

Apologies if I have missed something obvious but how are you selecting these horses each day?

 

I’m not telling you that!!

Each of the systems have different parameters, the April trainers for instance is a list of trainers who have more winners against expected winners historically in April.

 

That's OK. I was just wondering if I had missed it.

 

A loss of 12.2pts on the day with just the one winner at 7.0 BSP. One non runner and all the others seemed to run half decent races.

Bank now stands at +48.61pts

No bets today or tomorrow. Should be able to put Saturdays up tomorrow and I will be missing in action on Monday.

 

Saturday

12:55 Thirsk King's Crown 2YO-Sires_MarchApril 1
12:55 Thirsk Northcliff 2YO-DamSires_MarchApril 2
12:55 Thirsk King's Crown 2YO-DamSires_MarchApril 1
13:30 Thirsk Prospect Big Prices - top Speed but low BHA Official Rank 2
13:30 Thirsk Fox Hill April Trainers - First time out 2
13:30 Thirsk Deputy April Trainers - First time out 2
13:30 Thirsk Spice Store April Trainers - First time out 2
14:05 Thirsk Yukon Mission April Trainers - First time out 2
14:05 Thirsk Dream Together April Trainers - First time out 2
14:05 Thirsk Stallone April Trainers - First time out 2
15:15 Thirsk Catch Cunningham Big Prices - top Speed but low BHA Official Rank 1
15:15 Thirsk King Of Speed April Trainers - First time out 1
15:15 Thirsk Little Earl April Trainers - First time out 1
15:15 Thirsk King Of Speed Big Prices - top Speed but low BHA Official Rank 1
15:15 Thirsk Red Warning April Trainers - First time out 1
15:50 Thirsk Contact April Trainers - First time out 2
17:00 Thirsk Magical Effect April Trainers - First time out 2
17:00 Thirsk Langholm April Trainers - First time out 2

29pt bet

bank is now +19.61

 

Prospect won at a BSP of 43.92

Daily return = +59.24

Running total = +106.85