Match Day Thread Norwich City versus Tottenham

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Thanks Dunc.

I'll look through this when I have more time

 

For all you statisticians we are bottom of the form guide with 5 points from the last 10 games with -8 goal difference.

We have arguably played quite well during some of those games but the League table doesn't lie and we are the worst team as it stands.

 

DF has found another reason for our failure to garner points of late:

"We are a side who always has to invest in each and every game a lot, in terms of emotions and also in work load. The depth in our squads is not like the top class sides, for us it means a quick turnaround is a bit more difficult than the top class squads who can rotate a bit more and don't have to invest as much from the mental side for each game."

Surely every PL team has a 25 man squad and therefore a similar mental and physical "work load" on each player. The injuries have been limiting team choice, but every team has injuries and suspensions. DF has had choices to make changes and chosen not to do so. With 4 games in 10 days he has to even out the work load by bringing other players in. Aarons took a knock to his Achilles tendon and may be rested with Byram shifting to RB and Lewis at LB. Hernandez could take Cantwell's place and McLean could drop to CM or replace Emi on the left with Stiepermann coming in behind Pukki. There's also a question about Hanley's fitness for 3 games in a week.

https://www.pinkun.com/norwich-city/norwich-city-v-spurs-team-news-1-6441666

 

I'm pretty sure he means the quality of their back up players

 

To find a different table with which to clutch straws:

Using the Expected Goals Model, we should be 17th. Villa, Bournemouth and Newcastle are overperforming so far. In the Villa-Norwich game, xG was something like 0.75-1.62, so we'd have been expected to take 3 points. If we can turn "expected goals" into "goals", we should be doing better! Interestingly, the same model for League 1 has Ipswich in 11th, suggesting their strong start to the season was never going to be sustainable.

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Liverpool are 3rd

 

I would sanction a class centre back to replace Klose and get Ozill on loan personally but that's why I specialize in match threads

 

Yes, I'm sure he does, but do we really have many players who aren't potential starters? Heise, Roberts and Srbeny perhaps, but the others aren't lacking in quality. We've been playing Tettey, Trybull and McLean to be stronger defensively, so that might pose a limitation which works against Vrančic and Leitner say, and injuries have limited choice of CBs, but if Pukki was injured and Drmić is available, surely he would play. Aarons, Lewis and Byram are all good options at FB so there's no loss of quality if Lewis comes back tomorrow and Byram switches to RB to rest Aarons. The depth of quality in this squad is the best I can remember over the past 40 years.

 

A CB on loan would make sense and another striker, given Drmić's injury problems. I'd like to see Rhodes as he could settle in quickly. Possibly another wide player would make sense if Roberts isn't going to be considered.

 

The xG statistics are probably our best hope of survival if we can raise our conversion ratio. We're making the chances but not converting enough into goals.

 

Note, however, that our 3 wins are what you'd expect looking at xG values for each match. All the talk on here about matches we "should" have won if only we'd been "more clinical", or opposition keepers hadn't happened to play blinders against us, etc. etc, is shown up for what it is. Fabrication. We have got exactly the number of wins we have earned. We have surrendered 2 points in the form of twice forfeiting what should have been draws, not through failing at the front, but failing at the back.

 

Should *of

 

Ive noticed this to my frustration in recent weeks. Is Amadou not a viable option to replace Tettey in the starting line up, Hernandez to replace Buendia, Roberts?? Where the hell is he? Vrancic in for McLean?Lewis back in at LB. Other than CB we have decent option that could come in all over the pitch!

Against the top teams why not play Tettey and Amadou with a McLean/Vrancic or even Leitner in front, then Pukki, Cantwell/Hernandez, Buendia/Roberts ahead in a 4-3-3 formation

 

Give Srbeny a start at CAM/ Support striker

 

I could of expressed myself better, and indeed would of, if I'd written what I should of.

 

4 changes Lewis Vrancic Stiepermann and Argos start.

 

Tettey two games in quick succession? That's a surprise. Entirely a 18/19 side too.

I'm basically pinning my hopes for a turnaround on Vrancic, so fingers crossed he can have an influence.

 

Spurs line-up is interesting, looks like 5 at the back with a somewhat unusual (for them) midfield. Maybe it'll be a bit dysfunctional and we can profit?