Not on the other bus but this year it's more about boys.

With the excitement of the Cheltenham Festival subsiding I thought it time to look ahead to the Flat.
Last year, at about this time, I put up 4 fillies to follow throughout the flat season. I was lucky as not only did all 4 manage a win, but one did rather well at very tasty prices. This year I will foolishly attempt something similar though I’ve optimistically increased the number to 5 and it’s a 3:2 split of colts to fillies. But the selection criteria are the same and that is fairly unexposed sorts who gave promise in their introductions as 2yos and whom because of their breeding I expect to be much better 3yos.

The first colt is Idder and he ran twice last Autumn, running promisingly first time out then winning a nice November maiden over 7f at Headquarters on soft ground. Idder comes from a well-established family in the stud book. Nowadays when it comes to the Derby most people probably look at what Coolmore is running in the race, in the ‘50s one looked at what owner/breeder Sir Victor Sassoon ran in the race, which he won on 4 occasions with Pinza, Crepello, Hard Ridden and St. Paddy. One of his families found their way into two other studs after his death through 2 mares Bally’s Mil and Soft Angels. Each had their periods in the sun; for a time the Cliveden Stud through Mils Bomb and her full sister Milly Moss (both Crepello daughters of Bally’s Mil) looked the most successful, then it looked as if the Plantation Stud would assert through Kris, Diesis and others (all ancestors of Soft Angels). Today and for the last dozen years it has been very much the Cliveden Stud to the fore with the Plantation Stud now sold and the Soft Angels line seemingly in the doldrums.
As I’ve said elsewhere families wax and wane and this one is no different. Idder’s dam is Epithany, who is by Zafonic out of the Caerleon mare Galette. Galette only ran twice but is out of a very tough Legend of France mare called Madame Dubois (a granddaughter of Milly Moss), who improved enormously as a 3yo to go from a May 2 mile maiden winner at York to a Group 2 winner in the UK and France. She has also sired 2 Group 1 winners in Count Dubois and Indian Haven. Her Sadler’s Wells daughter Place de L’Opera produced the very useful Indian Ridge colt Imperial Stride, who contrived to miss out his 3yo career but was a worthy 2yo and 4yo, and the very unlucky Hala Bek who came very close to winning the Derby.
The family is due a big-hitter and Idder may be it. By Authorized a lot of people may overlook him, but there is no reason why bred to the right mares Authorized shouldn’t sire good animals. Idder’s optimum distance may be anywhere from 10 to 12f. He is entered for the Derby and unlikely to be entered for the Guineas. Whether he’s up to that class is another thing but I’d be surprised if he doesn’t start in a Classic Trial somewhere, maybe Sandown or Newmarket. I’ll be watching. (Nowadays Cliveden have 4 ancestors of Milly Moss in the stud and sold Galette some years ago. The most promising mare may be Cut Short, though the mares Super Sleuth and Brevity must be from whom much is expected).

A few months ago, in a quiet period on this forum, I threw in a bit about the Meon Valley Stud (Take Three Girls). My second horse, another colt (who was incidentally second to Idder when that colt won), is Zee Zeely and hails from this stud’s best family: that of Reprocolor. Zee Zeely is out of the unraced Zee Zee Gee (by Galileo), who is a half-sister to the good filly Izzi Top (by Pivotal) and both are out of Zee Zee Top (by Zafonic out of the Irish Oaks winner Colorspin), who won the Group 1 Prix de L’Opera. This is the good family of horses such as Bella Colora, Kayf Tara and Opera House.
Zee Zeely, by Dansili’s brother Champs Elysees, is likewise entered for the Derby and may have the right sort of pedigree to figure in a race like that. He was the same price as Idder in the Newmarket race and a nose behind him and ran a different sort of race. I’d find it difficult to choose between them but would slightly favour Zee Zeely and believe they both could be good colts to follow this year. Haggas will probably start Zee Zeely off in a maiden at Newbury or Newmarket and if he comes through that should be trial bound.

My third choice, Sea Defence, won on his second outing as a 2yo and on the same day as the other two. He is a different kettle of fish altogether and looked a more muscular, faster type. He is also American bred by the Juddmonte organisation and by their stallion Mizzen Mast (by Cozzene), who you may not know that well but who did run in France (finished 2nd in the Grand Prix de Paris). In the US he went on to win a trio of group races, the best of which was a Group 1 success over 7f, though he appeared to stay at least 9f. His dam is the Gone West mare Palisade who won a race in the UK. There is a full-sister to Sea Defence who won on dirt and turf and stayed 8f. But Palisade’s dam was a mare called Peplum, by Nijinsky, who won the Cheshire Oaks and produced the Irish River colt Boatman who was Group 1 placed in the US. Then you eventually get to the real class of this family when you find Peplum is a half-sister to that admirable filly Al Bahathri. In most seasons a filly like Al Bahathri would have been hailed as outstanding. She was unfortunate to have Oh So Sharp as one of her peers, but she was still an excellent filly.
Sea Defence’s win was very impressive with the first two coming 10 lengths clear of the rest. The race was on soft ground and he wasn’t particularly expected to handle it well but did. He’s expected to be better on good ground. I’d be surprised if we didn’t see Sea Defence out fairly early in a competitive handicap. It’s unlikely he’ll have Guineas potential, as it’s too big a step up from what he’s shown so far. He should stay 10f but a truly run 12f may be beyond him. If all goes well he could be competing in 8-10f races at Group level this year and I’ve no doubt Charlton will get the maximum out of this American bred come midsummer. I’d also recommend Mizzen Mast as a stallion to watch.

My first filly will be no surprise to those who’ve read my earlier pieces. She hails from the Royal Studs and is a filly called Queen’s Prize, who is by Dansili and is from the Queen’s second family. That is the family of Amicable, who had two good daughters by Exbury called Example and Expansive (the former a winner of the Park Hill Stakes and the latter the Ribblesdale Stakes), and Queen’s Prize is a descendent of the latter: her line includes another Ribblesdale winner in Phantom Gold (this mare got the Queen nearest to winning a classic recently when her daughter, Flight of Fancy, was 2nd in the Oaks). Queen’s Prize’s dam is Daring Aim (by Daylami and a half-sister to FoF) and this is her fifth living foal and all five have won, with Bold Sniper and Highland Glen being useful. So far the first four produce (all colts) have been monkeys (often difficult at the gate and often needing blinkers and to be gelded) but this is the first filly and she didn’t put a foot wrong when she won on her debut at Kempton. She didn’t beat much that day (no-one has come out and franked the form) but the style of her victory was very taking.
This is a family that improves as 3yos, in fact only one of Daring Aim’s produce, so far, has won as a 2yo so I’d expect more (this was one of Stoute’s few 2yo winners last year) this season. I’ll be disappointed if they haven’t got at least one eye on a tilt at a Group race for this filly, so I expect her to start off in an Oaks trial somewhere. She should stay 12f comfortably enough and I’m looking forward to seeing the Royal colours getting into the action in some bigger races this season.

The final filly hails from the stable of Andrew Balding and my reason for choosing her was more on looks and performance than breeding. Her name is Wylye and she is by Dalakhani out of a mare called Tavy (by Pivotal) who is a half-sister to 2000G 3rd Frenchman’s Bay (who went on to win a Group 2 in France). That’s as good as it looks but if you go back 4 generations of this filly’s (mainly US) distaff side there are some good animals like Kittiwake (by Sea Bird) who won a lot of races and a lot of money in the early ‘70s.
But this filly looked really beautiful and genuine on her only start at Newbury where, without being given a hard race, she won a useful looking maiden. She is not entered in the Oaks and I don’t expect her to be that grade. But come late-summer she could be the type of filly to pick up a smaller Group race.
Picking promising horses for the future after a couple of runs as a 2yo is a mugs game: so much can go wrong. But there was enough about this handful to make them attractive to me.

 

Thanks for sharing Bustino. Let's hope they do as well as last year's.

 

These are going in my tracker for some serious punts. Great write up as usual.

 

Thanks Bustino, will certainly keep tabs on these one's and hope they do well for themselves.

 

Really interesting piece Bustino

 

Bustino, as a Mizzen Mast fan you should put IDEA in your tracker. Has bizarre flat form reading U1- having unseated leaving the stalls on debut. Followed this with a cheeky win at Windsor, a place where Stoute takes a lot of his nice horses. I think he will turn out pretty good and is worth following!

 

Stick be careful following these. Although following the 4 I put up last year would have won a fair bit of money, following one of them would have lost you some.
I'll certainly keep an eye IDEA.

 

Nice photo of Sea Defence on Charlton's website. Says he now weighs in at 570kg. He's a big boy

www.rogercharlton.com/index.php/news/398-17th-march-2014

Roger Varian's Idder is entered in a 10f handicap at Doncaster on Sunday

 

IDDER runs tomorrow. Leicester 4.05, in a handicap 5/2

 

....and Zee Zeely lines up tomorrow in the 2.40 Maiden at Pontefract and really should take all the beating if ready to fire. Missed Idder's race the other day but one would imagine improvement will come with the cobwebs blown off.

 

Well StH that hasn't been a good start at all! Both had run well on the soft yet seemed not to fire. Hopefully they were just a bit rusty.
Queen's Prize seems to be overshadowed at Stoute's by the same owners Shama. Wylye entered at Windsor on Monday.