QIPCO 1000 Guineas, Newmarket, Sunday 2nd May 2021

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by QuarterMoonII, Mar 21, 2021.

  1. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    The AOB horses continue to run badly. The retort seems to be that they are just the 2nd raters and only giving AOB a sight of the opposition. Well maybe but there would normally be a concern if so many AOB triallists failed. Miss Pegasus is a short favourite and is certainly a talented horse but she's only running against her stablemates, so surely she's doing fast times. It will be fascinating to see if she repeats those times on the Rowley mile next Sunday.
     
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  2. Crypto Capone

    Crypto Capone 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Shocking run from Willow today, Obrien said she would need the run but there seemed to be plenty of confidence behind her in the Oaks market and in the betting today. She didnt raise a gallop and now looks a longshot for the Oaks. I guess the only slither of hope is that lot of his horses are running badly right now and she is a big horse who probably needs a few runs to get fit but she will need to step forward massively next time.

    Noon Star is on my 3yo list but I didnt back her for the Oaks due to Stoutes recent classic record and getting burned by a few of his, just wasnt convinced she was quite top class on the Nottingham win but her debut was very promising and the pedigree is there. It was a good start for her today, suspect she will be well fancied for the Musidora now and we'll find out her level there. Shes probably still decent value actually at 14s while there are so few legit contenders and she will be under half of that if she wins at York.

    My hope now mainly with Teona for Roger Varian, gave her a good mention in his stable tour and planning to run either at York or Newbury, Id prefer Newbury as a trial, neither York or Newbury have been particularly strong pointers to the Oaks in the last decade but I think the Newbury race has produced more. Like Noon Star, there is the same concern for Teona with Varian not delivering in classics, but at 66/1 they are certainly factored in.
     
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    Last edited: Apr 25, 2021
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  3. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    16 Fillies left in the 1000 Guineas Aidan has the 6/4 Fav Santa Barbara and in addition the more exposed Mother Earth and Snowfall, plus the once raced winner Queen's Speech, who hosed up in a November maiden over 7F on heavy going.

    It would seem reasonable to feel that the very exposed Snowfall is going to be used to set the pace. Queen's Speech is short enough in my view at 25/1 given the typical late season wide margin win in the mud over weak looking opponents whose form has not worked out at all well. She should be 50/1 at least.

    I am a bit worried about Santa Barbara at the odds, not just because I think her form has a long way to come but because she holds an entry for a Group 3 race the day after the 1000 Guineas and another Group 3 entry on the following Saturday. Why these entries if she is going to the Guineas?

    Aidan had said he feels Santa Barbara has the pace for a mile but is he now concerned that speed fillies Sacred and Alcohol Free may have more toe that his inexperienced filly? It would certainly be a big question in my mind if I were her trainer.

    I remember that Found skipped the 1000 Guineas in her year because Aidan said he felt she wasn't ready to run and he then ran her the very next day in the Athasi Stakes. That is the same possibility this season and Queen's Speech also holds that Athasi entry on the Monday and so does Mother Earth.

    I would be a bit concerned and would be waiting to see what happens at the 48 decs stage.

    Imagine if Santa Barbara were pulled out late?
     
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  4. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Looks like I'm left with Saffron Beach
     
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  5. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    I'm very much in the Alcohol Free camp
     
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  6. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    I'm not impartial to a glass of wine with the evening meal
     
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  7. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    I remember back in 2015, O’Brien took Found out of the 1000 Guineas (my ante post ticket up in smoke) and then ran her in the Group 3 on the Monday in heavy ground and she was beaten at long odds on. She was subsequently runner-up in the Irish 1000 Guineas and the Coronation Stakes and ended up a middle distance filly, so I probably had a losing ticket even if she had gone to HQ.

    Given the Coolmore small change involved in entering Santa Barbara in those Group 3s, it is probably just a precaution. They have until Sunday to manufacture a lame excuse. As they have potential pacemakers entered there is no reason it should turn into a sprint. She has to be the worst bet in the history of the race.
     
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  8. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Pretty Gorgeous is ruled out at the 11th hour after scoping badly. I had a reasonable bet on her by my standards at 20/1 and it had gone well with regards to a maiden winner being hot favourite and horses like Alcohol Free and Sacred having stamina doubts.

    I knew it was too good to be true. Still at least it was a couple of days before the race. I had a bet on Blue Point ante-post and waited months only for him to be withdrawn 30 seconds before the race due to a blood trickle in a nostril.

    Not sure I will have a bet in the race now.
     
    #48
  9. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Unlucky Grendel
     
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  10. Crypto Capone

    Crypto Capone 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    Hope Snow Lantern connections enjoy York with what would have been the 2nd choice for the Guineas.

    Ill be shocked if Mother Earth doesnt go very close in this field, happy with 25s on her.
     
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    Last edited: Apr 30, 2021

  11. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    I have been toying with Saffron Beach this morning. She was not disgraced behind Sacred last time and has more scope for improvement than the Haggas filly. Even though beaten last time, it was still an improvement from Saffron Beach and she should be better suited by a mile than Sacred.

    Alcohol Free concerns me on stamina grounds and I thought she benefited from several of her main rivals having a bad day at the office in the Fred Darling. The figures for that race had to be twiddled to make some sense of it and even then they had to award Alcohol Free a figure 6 lbs below her best. The trainer says she will come on a lot for it but trainers tend to play psychological games with themselves to help boost confidence and there is another furlong to cover this time.

    I feel that this Guineas might be won with a 110 rating and 5 lbs improvement from Saffron Beach would reach that target.

    Santa Barbara has been noted as likely to be green by trainer Aidan O'Brien and I could not get involved with her at 5/4 but some punters seem to believe she is the next great thing.

    Oh to hell with it. Saffron Beach it is. Sorry Ron.

    1000 Guineas Saffron Beach 9/1
     
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  12. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    I'm probably one of the few people on here who was impressed by Alcohol Free's return at Newbury. What I liked was the fact that she came through smoothly to win and then had to quicken again. Balding was pretty clear she wasn't ready and the paddock critics said she looked very wooly, so I think she'll improve a good deal on that performance but a couple more weeks would probably help.
    Of course if Santa Barbara is as great as AOB says no filly stands a chance but after today's performance where his representatives finished 8th, 11th and 13th his confidence must have taken a knocking (let alone others). A big question will be how she handles the good to firm going, whereas I feel Alcohol Free will have no problems. So it's Alcohol Free for me with the horse she beat at Newbury, Statement, as the best EW bet.
     
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  13. rudebwoy

    rudebwoy Well-Known Member

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    Hyanna , in the class 2 hcap , won first time out last year , stable going strongly , 14/1 .
    Lady Bowthorpe in the 300 , same as above really , stable in form ,wins fresh , has highest ratings 6/1
     
    #53
  14. Crypto Capone

    Crypto Capone 1 of the top judges in Europe

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    That will do, finally a change of luck after some rough months.

    Another classic win for the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf races, the 8th won a stakes race at Santa Anita last night as well, Aunt Pearl was obviously amiss in her run, she was a top class 2yo.

    Mother Earth fit the profile of the last 2 winners and had the best form in the book with her 2 places over a mile in Group 1s, strange she was allowed to go off double figures in such a poor race, even given the worrying stable form.
     
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  15. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
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    Nice one Joe. Was Timeform top rated too
     
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  16. hawkeye

    hawkeye Well-Known Member

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    Thanks Joe, had a bit on when u put it up
     
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  17. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    as did I <cheers>
     
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  18. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    Good shout Mr Spreader, just for a change I had the second. At least it wasn't close, unlike the 2000 Guineas.

    Santa Barbara ran well in the circumstances but the expectations were so high that many will be disappointed. To my eyes Alcohol Free didn't quite last and Sacred probably had her last hurrah in the Nell Gywn.

    Hard to think about rating the race very highly and the Hannon's surely have some regret about not running Snow Lantern after watching fillies rated 105 and 108 filling the places today.
     
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  19. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    The Racing Post gave Mother Earth 113 for her win. Saffron Beach received 111, which is 6 lbs higher than her OR coming in.

    Mother Earth is 8/1 and 10/1 for the Oaks now. As a daughter of Zoffany out of a Green Desert mare you would think there is little to no chance of getting 12F.

    Santa Barbara was shortened by some firms and left alone by others at 7/2. Still a bit to consider for her having to step up another half mile in a hurry after what looked a weak Guineas so I wouldn't be playing at the odds. Her 110 RPR for the Guineas leaves her well ahead of Noon Star on 100 and Teona on 91 though and those two need to come forward a fair bit to be involved.

    Teona won by nine lengths on her second start but she was 1/3 Fav that day and didn't have to improve on her debut second. Obviously open to plenty of improvement but the nag is the lack of success from the Varian stable in the Classics, considering the ammunition he gets.

    Noon Star needs to find a stone by Oaks day but she is going the right way. I suspect that she might just fall short on class but when you back a horse at 33/1 ante-post you know there are going to be questions and that you need a bit of luck in finding that one who will improve and perhaps stay better than the slightly classier fillies.
     
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  20. Bustino74

    Bustino74 Thouroughbred Breed Enthusiast

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    Don't you think it was an advantage to be on the far side? Your filly might have done better if she was nearer the pace being set, as relatively slow as it was.
     
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