Love won her race in a faster time than the Derby. That says all you need to know about the rides on the horses in behind in the Derby.
I think Kameko starting 5/2 fav is more shocking than the winner, did not see that coming in a million years, wont see a better lay than that all season. He was perfectly placed handy off the slow pace next to all the placed horses and he still wasnt able to ever threaten in the race. The top 4 were pretty much the top 4 all the way, 3 of them rank outsiders, which looks clear evidence of a false race. English King was probably 2nd best on the day if you give the winner the benefit of the doubt.
No. When Enable won the Oaks she was readily available at 20/1 and I fancied her even more. Love is 16 for the KG so 13/2 the Arc looks a miserly price. Would rather have Logician at 16s
If they do not go for the Fillies’ Triple Crown with Love, she will be favourite for the Arc and I cannot see Enable giving her the age allowance unless it comes up soft and the three year old gets drawn in the trees. I say that as a fully paid up member of the Enable fan club. Love has that one burst of speed to get her to the front and then gallops relentlessly so she just needs a position at the turn into the Longchamp straight and a clear run. Frankie did say afterwards that Frankly Darling did not handle the track and watching in real time it looked like she was totally unbalanced after Tattenham Corner but there was no way he would have got near the winner – different class.
What to say about the Derby. Has it ever been stolen before? They let him go and thought he would come back. Serpentine definitely stayed longer than the mother-in-law, credit to Emmet McNamara. Can he back it up when we next see him? He surely will not be allowed an easy lead – or maybe he is good and the others are mediocre. Could the bookies have imagined O’Brien winning an eighth Derby and it being a good result. I suppose Ryan will be onboard next time, so back the ‘other’ O’Brien runner! I was bothered about Kameko before the race started because of the way he got sweated up at the start but I will credit Oisin with riding the horse like he would stay but I think Frankie made a terrible decision to stick to the inside in the middle of the pack with English King rather than being nearer the pace on a known stayer, especially when he then finished with a wet sail.
If there was another "teams" pacemaker in the race, taking Serpentine on as Tempo Vuela did with Passion, would he have won the race? Highly doubtful.
I appreciate that the prices you quoted where at the time of posting. Just looking as I type this and Enable best priced 9/2 for the Arc on Oddschecker with Love 13/2. In the King George, the best odds are now Enable 7/4, Love 5/1 and Serpentine 7/1. Obviously this could change after Sunday with the older horses running at Sandown but would O’Brien send both Love and Serpentine to Ascot? I think not; and if she comes out of the Oaks well, could she show up at The Curragh for the Irish version in a fortnight instead?
That is a fair point. As I said, credit to McNamara for an enterprising ride. The horse is clearly just an out-and-out stayer, nobody challenged him for the lead so he set his own fractions and never saw an opponent. Was it a bit of a Ghaiyyath-like performance that may not be repeatable? Equally it could be viewed that some very experienced jockeys on the other runners left their brains in the weighing room. They had seen the two fillies in the Oaks run each other into the ground and just assumed that the leader was there to make sure the race did not turn into a sprint and that it would fold at the two pole. Assumption the mother of all...
Oisin Murphy on twitter in the car going home today has put up his thoughts about the race in a 2min posting. Says, he popped out well, had a good position, got Kameko relaxed, the jockeys thought the front ones would come back, nobody wanted to make a mid race manoeuvre, Kameko didnt stay as he never picked up anything around him, he felt the last 2f on his horse were slow. He actually posted in an interview last night that Serpentine could get an easy lead and run away with it!
Great performance by Serpentine. I gave every O'Brien outsider a chance and skipped him. I backed Mogul at the price, but it was as easy as 1, 2, 3 for Galileo Gallilei. The horse whisperer makes it 8 (Eight) English Derby wins - a record i believe? He's not only monopolising the greatest racing in the world in Ireland, but plundering the riches across the Irish Sea as well. Edit: put 7 instead of 8 English Derby wins.
I remember a time when bait like that would have got a few bites due to actual racing discussion being a thing on this forum, buts that was a long time ago, cant see many caring enough to respond. I have been on plenty of Obriens classic winners and I think he is a great trainer, but lets be honest, if you gave any trainer 50 Galileos to the best mares in the world every year and let them run 7 in the Derby, im sure theyd have won a few as well. I think if trainers were limited to 2 entries, his record wouldnt be as good, and given the situation, racking up Derby wins is more inevitable than incredible. International racing has been far more interesting to me than UK/IRE for a long time in terms of sport.
What was Oli Bell saying about Serpentine's time for the last 3f? Did he say 36seconds? If so to expect a horse to run 3f and about 15 lengths faster than 36 seconds was asking a lot. Serpentine was only 0.37 seconds slower than Love, yet strolled the first mile. He must be useful. His next race will be very interesting. The second was the only horse to smell Serpentine. Marquand said he didn't come down the hill at all. He added that when he got him balanced again Serpentine was gone. If that's the case then Khalifa Sat ran a very creditable race. Not travelling down the hill is a terrible waste of energy, for such an inexperienced horse he did well. Badly need at least these two to go on from this to prove themselves. Racing needs it.
It should be limited. A yard as massive as Coolmore have almost unlimited resources and will just continually throw as many at the race as possible. To the detriment or betterment of the sport... That is up for debate. It was a fair impressive winner today though, joking aside. It looked a wide open contest. If Serpentine was only one or two of Aidan's runners today, he would have been a good winner for a lot of punters. I mostly avoid O'Brien, I just cant catch him right in the big ones over the years.
Emissary was a huge disappointment also, he looked to be getting the better of Khalifa Salt at Goodwood but ran out of yardage, the betting prior suggested a poor run and we got one from him.
Sepertine wouldnt have run today if Obrien only had 4 places never mind 2, its quite obvious hes been gifted the race and is highly unlikely to be as good as it looks but hes obviously a decent horse. Or maybe he is the new Galileo and you will need to be one his sons to have any chance of winning a Derby in the next 20 years. There is no way of fixing it without weakening the race, we want the best horses to run and when it comes to 12f round Epsom, Ballydoyle are mass producing horses specifically for it while no one else has the tools, they are the only show in town and even if you introduce a points system, they would just send all their horses to all the points races and would still end up with 7 runners. Thats 5 years now since Golden Horn that a good middle distance colt has not turned up in someones yard, I thought it might be English King but it wasnt to be. Surely there has never been a worse 5 year run of Derby winners than the current one.