1. Log in now to remove adverts - no adverts at all to registered members!

Daily Racing Thread Saturday 4th. July 2020

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by attivo, Jul 3, 2020.

  1. As We Know

    As We Know 1 of the top judges in Europe

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2012
    Messages:
    39,879
    Likes Received:
    54,485
    nice horse but the chances of a Kingman winning a 12f classic are very slim I think, wouldnt write him off though for the future
     
    #81
    SaveTheHumans likes this.
  2. SaveTheHumans

    SaveTheHumans Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 19, 2012
    Messages:
    11,261
    Likes Received:
    5,197
    True, I just felt he would finish ahead of Khalifa. Ran absolutely no race though which was odd, was knackered after 3 furlongs.

    Can't see how some are making claim for Frankly Darling not handling it without acknowledgement to the winner as well, she may not have handled the track at all great but Love also got a little unbalanced turning in before eventually finding her stride. Enisstymon also travelled well and was well balanced for the race which helped her nab 2nd. Love is a high quality horse.
     
    #82
  3. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

    Joined:
    May 31, 2011
    Messages:
    8,259
    Likes Received:
    4,105
    With the domination caused by the Coolmore-Ballydoyle association, Irish racing has certainly become a non-event with O’Brien just farming most of their top races season after season. Commercially, their success has to be applauded but it is not great for the sport’s showcase race. Perhaps the other big operations should enter half a dozen a year so that the lesser ones on ratings would be balloted out and there would be a maximum field every year like the Arc.

    Galileo has turned out five Derby winners since he retired to stud, which sounds impressive until you consider how many Derby runners he has sired since 2004. No other sire before him has monopolised representation to that extent. When O’Brien has a decent horse, he only runs a couple in the Derby but in most years where he does not have what looks like an outstanding candidate he runs six or seven.

    I will give Coolmore some ‘credit’ for their record over the last twenty years as they acquired the services of a man who has turned out to be a world class trainer; and they have outperformed the other big European breeding operations of the Maktoum family and the Aga Khan.
     
    #83
  4. Steveo

    Steveo Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 15, 2019
    Messages:
    1,190
    Likes Received:
    765
    it will be interesting to see how Enable gets on tomorroe

    I have thought for a while that the Derby as a race is really struggling.
    Yesterday just confirmed it

    I also think that when crowds are allowed back to racecourses far less than before will bother with going up onto the Epsom Downs for Derby Day
     
    #84
  5. rudebwoy

    rudebwoy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Feb 20, 2013
    Messages:
    4,717
    Likes Received:
    2,803
    This imbalance is repeated in other so called sports , football is dominated by a few very wealthy clubs , they can hoover up all the best players , formula one is a rich mans game before you start , hard to see how all this can be made “ fairer” without the fall of capitalism !
     
    #85
  6. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2011
    Messages:
    13,630
    Likes Received:
    4,658
    upload_2020-7-5_9-28-41.png

    That is the graph showing the official sectionals for the Oaks. I've averaged out the first 5 furlongs, given they had a combined time for those furlongs. What is clear here is that Passion was given a very even and genuine pacemaker ride, she quickened from the middle of the race slightly and then slowed in the final furlong. Conversely the front three were more patiently ridden and then closed rapidly in the middle to end of the race and what is very impressive is how Love maintained her effort far longer than Ennistymon and Frankly Darling. Part of that was the judgement of Ryan Moore who didn't go too hard early as we saw with Ennistymon and then didn't ask forr too much to close her down as we saw with Frankie on Frankly Darling.

    upload_2020-7-5_9-32-1.png

    That is the Derby graph, where we see that Serpentine graphically didn't have the same continual pace throughout the race as we saw with Passion, and that meant that he was able to put in a very good effort throughout the middle of the race to see the field well out of their ground. He slowed in the final three furlongs, but not nearly enough for the others to come to him. The interesting bit here is the English King/Kameko lines, which are well out of time with the winner until they quicked to sub 11 seconds in furlong 9. They would have had to keep up the sub 11 seconds to have finished anywhere near him, but then they slowed markedly after making such an uneven effort in the race.

    So compare Passion with Serpentine - upload_2020-7-5_9-35-36.png

    This shows that the pace of the Derby was more false than the Oaks, they ran slower in the early stages, but still allowed him to build up his lead. In the Oaks, Passion built up a similar lead, but she did so by running a faster split. Then Serpentine was given an excellent ride in the middle of the race to quicken further from the field off that slow pace, whereas Passion could only maintain the gallop. They both then finished in a very similar last furlong.

    So was it an exceptional horse in Serpentine?

    upload_2020-7-5_9-38-1.png

    This shows the speed of Love versus Serpentine through the race. Love maintained a faster pace throughout the end of the race, after being slower through the early race. The impressive aspect of this is how much quicker she was in the final three furlongs despite making her effort in the middle of the race. She showed much more ability on the clock than Serpentine, and therefore for me she is by far the better horse who had a better performance.

    Final graph -
    upload_2020-7-5_9-39-56.png

    This shows how English King lost the race in the middle of the effort in comparison to the time of Love who ran the first half of the race in a similar time. Had English King run the same sectionals from halfway, he would have won the Derby. However Frankie didn't twig to the false pace, and by the time he put the horse under a ride, it was too late.

    The impressive aspect of this graph is how Love curves so gradually up at the end against a horse who was given a more patient ride. She really was outstanding, and for me she is the horse of the day. If she met English King, I would be backing her all day long. Similarly with Serpentine, I would have her well above him.

    For all it was a great ride by Emmet, I think this simple analysis shows that it was mistakes by those in behind in the judgement of the pace, rather than the horse being exceptional.
     
    #86
    rudebwoy and Archers Road like this.
  7. Ron

    Ron Well-Known Member
    Forum Moderator

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2011
    Messages:
    48,322
    Likes Received:
    15,486
    Excellent analysis Nass. I think it shows that English King was probably good enough to win the Derby and that Love is a very good filly, in which case we shouldn't be too hasty to rubbish either race (jockeys yes but not the horses). Love will be a good representative in the Arc
     
    #87
  8. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jun 2, 2011
    Messages:
    13,630
    Likes Received:
    4,658
    I think the two horses to take out the Derby are English King and Kameko. The former is likely to prove the best staying colt in the race (especially UK) and Kameko I think is very much in the Roaring Lion style. A drop in trip for the latter and a more positive ride for the former.

    I need to watch Mogul and the other AOB horses back, I guess they will improve past the raw form and could win some good races.
     
    #88
    Ron likes this.

Share This Page