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Daily Racing Thread Saturday 9th. October 2021

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by attivo, Oct 8, 2021.

  1. attivo

    attivo Well-Known Member

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    Saturday's Meetings

    Hexham
    N/H 7 Races 1:00-4:30p.m.
    Limerick
    Flat 7 Races 1:05-4:35p.m.
    Newmarket
    Flat 7 Races 1:10-4:45p.m.
    Chepstow
    N/H 7 Races 1:15-4:40p.m.
    Fairyhouse
    N/H 8 Races 1:20-5:22p.m.
    York
    Flat 7 Races 1:30-5:00p.m.
    Chelmsford(E)
    A/W 8 Races 4:55-8:30p.m.

    Racecards
    At The Races
    Sporting Life
    Racing Post

    Good Luck<ok>
     
    #1
  2. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    I was really impressed with GOLDSPUR (1.45) on debut and despite the race form not really working out that well I would not be the least bit surprised if he doesn’t turn his stablemate over today and prove to be very classy.
     
    #2
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  3. Big tone

    Big tone Member

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    Magical Spirit for me in the big sprint at york e/w …..looks laid out for this race.
     
    #3
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  4. Pilgrim

    Pilgrim Well-Known Member

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    Newmarket
    15,35 I'm on Burning Victory 16/1 e/w (four places). Now 8/1 (seven places) 15/2 (eight places). Maybe ground against her.

    York
    15,15 Volatile Analyst 14/1 e/w six places with WH, 12/1 seven places with Sky

    Hexham
    14,45 Happy Hollow 9/2

    Good luck all.
     
    #4
  5. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    It looks another competitive renewal of the Silver Trophy Hurdle at Chepstow but the fly in the ointment could be bottom weight Dargiannini. If he handles the hustle and bustle of a big field handicap hurdle he should go well but at the prices, slight preference is for Henry Daly's The Wrekin. The form of his Hexham win has since been boosted and his opening handicap mark looks workable.

    Equally tricky to pick the Ces winner, in fact it is tricky enough to work out which of Willie Mullins' runners will do best. Burning Victory has been making hay in France over the summer and the 2020 Triumph Hurdle heroine (or should that read villain after Goshen's unseat at the last?) remains thoroughly unexposed.
     
    #5
  6. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    Looking at the card at HQ, it seems almost inconceivable that Ballydoyle does not have a short priced favourite on the card. Is that a measure of what a mediocre season it has been for the yard responsible for the best bluebloods in Europe? In the absence of a Coolmore hotpot, just a couple of Godolphin ones.

    Possibly the best chance of a Ballydoyle win comes in the Zetland Stakes(1:45) with Bluegrass, who made all over a mile last time after doing nothing on debut. Also over from the Emerald Isle is Unconquerable, who has not lived up to his name winning only a small Naas maiden in six starts but was third in the Royal Lodge last time and has the services of Frankie again. Charlie Appleby is making this one difficult by running two: Goldspur strung out a nine runner field at Sandown on soft ground on his only start and James Doyle is aboard again whilst the expensive Hafit landed the odds on debut but was beaten in a four runner Listed race when odds on, but holds third Dukebox on that form. If I were certain that Goldspur does not have to get his toe in, he would be the choice but I will just watch.

    I backed the Royal Lodge winner but the runner up Coroebus clearly tied up in front that day having been sent into a big lead. He is justifiably odds on over the same course and distance, taking a drop in grade for the Autumn Stakes (2:20) and the form of the Royal Lodge may have been boosted in the Zetland Stakes by the third.

    It is little surprise that Native Trail is odds on for the Dewhurst (2:55) as he put up clearly the best performance by a juvenile so far this term when winning the National Stakes. There is little reason to believe that Dhabab, beaten by the favourite in the Superlative Stakes, will reverse that form so the main threat may come from Straight Answer, the Irish raider added to the field after scorching home in a 6f Listed race at Fairyhouse.

    Doubtless by Monday the burghers of Timeform will have come up with some ridiculous assessments just like they did last week after Longchamp, where everything suddenly seemed to have improved 10lb on soft ground.

    The Cesarewitch betting appears to be dominated by a load of slow old plodders from the usual suspects like Willie Mullins (6 runners), Nicky Henderson, Paul Nicholls and Donald McCain, so I think I will give it a miss. A mate of mine has done Platform Nineteen each way ante post at twice the current odds.

    The Boadicea Stakes (4:10) looks like the only betting race on the card. The top rated in the race, Scarlet Bear, was placed twice in Group 3 races as a juvenile, changed yard over the winter and won first time up back in April but has not been seen since. Adaay To Remember has placed in all five of her starts, third in the Listed Hopeful Stakes most recently, just a head behind reliable old boy Tabdeed. Chocoya comes seeking a hat-trick after winning two six runner affairs, one at Salisbury and last time at Chelmsford on the kitty litter under today’s jockey; however, preference is for the other hat-trick seeker, the mare GALE FORCE MAYA, who was third in the Great St Wilfrid at Ripon but subsequently won at Pontefract and beat Gellhorn in a course and distance handicap last time when claimer ridden but is 6lb better off today. Michael Dods is known for improving his sprinters and she is definitely going the right direction.

    What puts me off the York card is the going. Their last meeting of the season and the one that I like the look of is in the last race. In Richard Fahey’s Sporting Life column, it is the last horse that he mentions, rated 94 that probably makes him one of the top twenty rated horses in the yard, Spirit Dancer was less than a length second at Chester a month ago after more than two months off; and looks capable of giving weight all round. If it dries up a lot by 5:00, I might have a look at it...
     
    #6
  7. Steveo

    Steveo Well-Known Member

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    In the Dewhurst Native Trail will probably win, but at the prices I think BAYSIDE BOY is the value call.
    Was impressed by him when he beat Reach for the Moon
     
    #7
  8. Big tone

    Big tone Member

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    Also backed live your dream in the cez at Newmarket.
     
    #8
  9. TheDukester

    TheDukester Member

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    York 5.00
    Lucander 5/1

    Newmarket 3.35
    Margret Dumont 80/1
     
    #9
  10. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Shout <applause>

    5/2 <laugh>
     
    #10
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  11. smokethedeadbadger

    smokethedeadbadger Well-Known Member

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    Nice one mate. First race of the scoop 6 and couldn't decide so took your advice on this. Appreciate it
     
    #11
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  12. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    I think you will find..........

    Lovely horse and although he has only scrapped out a three way go he looked very much like he will improve absolutely heaps over the winter.
    20/1 for the Derby and I am having some of that.
     
    #12
  13. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Nice run from Allmankind off top weight there, nice pipe-opener for the season and be interesting to see what they do with him this season.
     
    #13
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  14. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    On 21st September I wrote the following in the daily thread:-

    "Goldspur, who won last week met my criteria for a Derby contender at 3YO. He was winning at a mile and clocked a RPR of 95 on his debut. My guidelines are that a colt has to win at a mile and reach 85 or more on Racing Post figures on their debut.

    You just know that punters looking for a once raced outsider for the Derby next spring would be looking at Goldspur and thinking about Hurricane Lane last season.

    Hurricane Lane won over a mile on his debut when the ground was heavy and he earned a figure of 88 from the Racing Post, Although only 3rd at Epsom, he landed the Irish version and every other race he has been in.

    Apparently the Appleby stable had not expected Goldspur to be ready for a performance like the one he put in on his debut. With so many nonsense no-hopers in the Derby betting, Goldspur has to be of interest to me."

    _______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________-

    There was no betting available that day but he opened at 33/1 shortly afterwards and was duly backed. Not sure what to make of today's performance. I hadn't expected he would line up in the Zetland, which used to be a real future stayers race and it was pretty tight at the finish today. I had backed Hafit for the Royal Lodge ante-post but he was turned over by Triple Time when odds-on for a Listed race. Unconquerable is pretty exposed and as a 100 rated horse I don't think we can get carried away with the form. Bluegrass was beaten off in 4th but I don't think much of his form.

    I was happy to see Goldspur win today but I have a feeling he may be overrated for the success and I don't think he took much of a step forward from his debut, probably 7-10 lbs and we will likely see him at Chester or Lingfield next spring. The Derby betting is very confused looking, with Luxembourg, Point Lonsdale and Native Trail all silly odds but I think I would rather back Goldspur at 25/1 for next year's Leger, rather than top up on the Derby, where I have him at 33/1.

    Talking if Native Trail, I backed him at 7/1 for the Dewhurst before his National Stakes run. I had an awful feeling with Inspiral at 3/1 for the Fillies Mile but she converted comfortably and bolstered confidence for the Guineas. I have backed her at 16/1 and 12/1 for the Guineas and can dream on a bit longer. Native Trail has just seen his stablemate Coroebus put down a marker and needs to beat a decent looking field today. I don't think he is any value at all today but hope he can keep the dream alive or I may be giving my 40/1 ticket for the Guineas the kiss of life this evening.

    Straight Answer looked useful last time but is stepping up in trip. His chance has not been missed and I thought Dubawi Legend might be worth a saver at 14/1. He was poor last time but scoped badly afterwards and had looked talented on debut.

    3.00 Dubawi Legend 14/1
     
    #14
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  15. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    Glad you didnt tip him today as I wouldnt have backed him.
     
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  16. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    On the Godolphin theme today I rather fancy LIVE YOUR DREAM. Ran a great race in the trial and wont bump into one with so much in hand here surely. Interesting that they leg up the claimer as its a very rare tactic for the yard.
    Of the ones at bigger prices Spanish Kiss has a chance but I dont really like the yard and Let Me Be could outrun his odds.
     
    #16
  17. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Good novice chase at Chepstow this - I quite like the McCain runner
     
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  18. OddDog

    OddDog Mild mannered janitor
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    Hats off to Buzz and Lieutenant Henderson - a stirring victory, outstaying a Triumph Hurdle winner up the Rowley Mile
     
    #18
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  19. Pilgrim

    Pilgrim Well-Known Member

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    Volatile Analyst won. Burning Victory 2nd.
     
    #19
  20. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    What a sad little man.

    Anyway, Native Trail did the business for me at 7/1 and I had the forecast with Dubawi Legend.

    My ante-post bets for the Classics are:-

    2000 Guineas Native Trail 40/1
    1000 Guineas Inspiral 16/1 and 12/1
    Derby Goldspur 33/1
    St Leger Goldspur 25/1

    That's it, no other bets this season on next year's Classics, which is highly unusual, as some seem to inevitably get scuppered for one reason or another.

    I have backed Straight Answer for the Commonwealth Cup at 20/1 and was amazed to see Ger Lyons supplement him for today's Dewhurst. He looked all over a sprinter to e and he never stayed today's 7F. Bad bit of placement I thought. Ger Lyons says he hates travelling over without a strong chance of winning but to my reckoning the last few of his have stunk the place out, including Sacred Bridge.

    Very strong hand for Godolphin in the Guineas but I wouldn't have Coroebus as close to Native Trail in the betting. The latter clocked a better looking speed figure and looked like he is ready for a mile now. I reckon Native Trail is the 7 lb better colt for now.
     
    #20

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