Solario Stakes Sandown Saturday

The Solario Stakes has thrown up some good winners in recent years. Kingman won in 2013 while Derby winner Masar won in 2017. Too Darn Hot won it last year and he was hot favourite for the 2000 Guineas at one stage but he failed to fire early in the season before landing a couple of arguably poor renewals of decent contests before injury meant early retirement.

This year's renewal has a competitive and interesting look to it and some flesh will be put onto the bones of some potential form lines while one or two may be exposed as mere pretenders to matching the exploits of some recent winners of the Group 3 contest.

A good enough place to start is with Al Suhail, who went into a few notebooks as runner-up in a maiden that several forum users felt would work out well. The race HAS thrown up winners but Al Suhail had pretty much a penalty kick last time out. 1/6 Fav in a four runner affair, he pulled a bit hard before ultimately winning comfortably but the opposition was very limited in class and my own feeling was that he had won by running to a lower figure than his debut effort. The Racing Post assessor took a few days before producing a rating but when he did the figure was 86 and that was 2 lbs LOWER than his debut rating. The old adage is that you can only beat what is put in front of you but a Group quality horse should be demolishing an opponent rated 70 and that 70 rating was a personal best for the runner up. As low as 9/4 and a best price of 7/2 I feel Al Suhail is priced as a hype horse here, rather than on what he has actually achieved. No value in my opinion.


Positive is favourite here and he has some strong form after chasing home Pinatubo in the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood. He was beaten 5 lengths that day but it was a Group 2 contest and he was 5 lengths clear of the 3rd Lope Y Fernandez. Clive Cox is in reasonable form at the moment and Positive may well have won the average Champagne Stakes but Pinatubo is a 119 rated horse at a pretty early stage of the season, On Racing Post Ratings Positive is on 109 and Al Suhail 88, so the latter has a mountain to climb if they are correct. I think it is crazy that both horses are 9/4 in places across the boards and Positive looks a strong bet to me given the opposition here.

Visinari has a rating of 106 but he has more than 8 lengths to make up with Positive from the Vintage Stakes. There seems little reason to expect a reversal and the July Stakes Visinari ran in looks overrated with only Platinum Star placing since, when winning a Listed race at Ripon. Platinum Star was even further behind Positive in the Vintage Stakes and it looks a tough ask for Visinari. Johnston also has the unbeaten Thunderous entered but he is not jocked up, while Ryan Moore is booked on Visinari. The big worry for Thunderous is that the runner up in his last race, Saint Of Katowice, was beaten hollow off 78 in a Nursery later and that is miles short of Solario form. Even allowing for improvement Thunderous has a lot on his plate in much stronger company if he does line up.

Encipher has pretty much an identical profile to Al Suhail. The Gosden horse was second on debut before winning at the second attempt. Like Al Suhail, Encipher did not really need to improve to win his second start but he did post a much better Topspeed in his second race. The form looks nothing special but you would be more confident of a Gosden runner improving and the trainer has five wins in this race since 2002. At first glance Encipher looks better value at double the odds of Al Suhail (7/1 to 7/2) but will Godolphin go against their presumed number one? Encipher is not jocked up and Gosden also has Eshaasy entered with Jim Crowley booked. Overall I feel Encipher has too much to make up here.

Appleby has other entries but they look more exposed, while some of the more unexposed entries look to have a lot on their plates to catch up with Positive.

Al Suhail could be a good colt but he didn't really impress last time. I felt he was overly keen and a hood going on so early was unusual for such a well bred and expensive colt. He is priced as if he has already won at Group 3 level. If Pinatubo had skipped the Vintage Stakes Positive would have been coming here as a 5 length Group 2 winner dropping back to Group 3 and he would surely have been odds-on. With his closest rival in the betting 21 lbs behind on Racing Post figures and coming from a 4 runner Class 4 Novice Race I reckon Positive is a no brainer selection at 9/4.

3.35 Sandown Saturday Positive 9/4

 

Looks like a bigger field than we’ve seen the last twice with seven already with jocks booked up. I think the key to this race antepost is whether you think anything near the head of the market won’t run or if you think we will get fewer than the flat 8.

Encipher and Thunderous are single figures in the market and don’t have jockeys on yet. So if they don’t run, you’d expect something to shorten for the third in the market to be 7/2 or so, to stop the EW thieves.

The one I’d like to be with is one at 12/1 for the Hannon yard, but without a jockey on and with yard having others entered, it’s currently not a race for me to be punting in.

 

Al Suhail continues to be backed and I really feel it's a two horse race from a punting point of view.

It's hype versus actual form and I know which I prefer.

It was rather disappointing to see Timeform preview the Solario and include the erroneous Tweet claiming a super fast time for Al Suhail last time. That's poor and unprofessional work.

The Timeform preview mentions most of the field with a shout before suggesting backing Positive at 9/4. I think we can all cover ourselves in a preview by concluding that 80% of the field have a chance and it hardly inspires confidence for a bet when the tipster is gathering an arseful of splinters on the fence.

I don't really fancy the Hannon runners because Sun Power looks a bit exposed and Man Of The Night was a bit disappointing last time. It's a pet hate of mine when 2YO horses go from a winning 6F debut straight to a mile next time. I always wonder why a winner suddenly needs another 2F? The race report for Man Of The Night last time out reads that he didn't have the pace to challenge after being held up. I feel that it is a common error for race readers to assume that a horse cannot quicken and they record it as having lacked the pace to get involved, when in fact the horse has run out of stamina and cannot quicken because it is tired. It makes more sense to me that Man Of The Night was badly placed at a mile by the trainer last time and having realised that they are dropping him to 7F now. I am not keen on horses who were sent on a fools errand the time before because I always feel is is a negative experience for the horse and in any case this looks a lot yougher race than the Salisbury Listed race he ran in last time.

 

Al Suhail 5/1 into 9/4

no doubt went into hundreds of trackers after the twitter hype from his last run, was always going to be overbet wherever he went, surprised they went as big as 5/1 though

Man Of The Night 16/1 and Surf Dancer 14/1 would be interesting if they turn up but Positive sets a fairly high standard.

 

Balding’s Kameko won fto but against what seems a lot of no-hopers. I’d follow him E-W though as Balding has the habit of improving his 2yos.

 

The Vintage was a funny race to my eye at the time, they finished strung out like 3 mile chasers, looked like they went hard early in the ground and the pace collapsed, Milltown Star who challenged Visinari early for the lead finished last 10L behind the 2nd last who had chased the leaders in 3rd early. Visinari hit a brick wall a furlong out and Positive and Lope Y Fernadez picked up the pieces after being held up out the back. The winners superior class was fully exposed by the strong gallop but the form in behind I wouldnt trust it too much.

Positive looks a strong stayer to me, doesnt appear to have an instant gear change but has been strong at this finish in both his races, 6/4 on debut and Clive Cox comments since suggest hes always been very highly regarded. Al Suhail looks the type who could really quicken off a slow pace so the way this race pans out could have a major impact on the result.

Betfred have them 5/2 joints, you have to be with Positive at prices.

 

I expected improvement from Balding's Fox Duty Free against Molatham last week. The son of Kingman ran to a RPR of 83 on debut when third at Newbury. Being out of a Rail Link mare, I felt sure the extra furlong would suit. The outcome? Fox Duty Free ran like a drain in 10th place, running two stone worse than his debut on 53.

That type of run is frustrating for backers and we should be able to sue Balding through Injury Lawyers 4U.

 

As Eddie says, the Vintage was a funny old contest but I doubt it was as funny as Racing Post Ratings would have us believe.

On the face of it Positive got a boost with the win of Vintage 5th Platinum Star at Ripon. Rated 108 for that effort we are looking at something to bet on with Positive having had more than NINE lengths in hand of Platinum Star at Goodwood. The trouble is that I feel the rating for the Ripon race is bollocks. How can you give a horse a higher rating for a Ripon Listed win, than for a short head second in the Group 2 July Stakes? It's a bollock hair away from ranking a Listed contest at Ripon above a Group 2 at Newmarket.

Platinum Star is supposed to have run to only 85 in the Vintage Stakes and that figure is now sandwiched either side by 107 and 108 ratings. A stone and a half below form looks a bit hard to swallow and I suspect the more likely truth to be that numbers forming the bread have been baked in a wonky oven.

Mark Johnston went into the Vintage Stakes bullish that Visinari would take a world of beating. He felt that the 7th Furlong would show the horse in a different light to the aforementioned July Stakes over 6F. In the end Visinari did turn around the form with Platinum Star from Newmarket but not by much and his rating of 87 for the Goodwood race was strikingly similar in it's drop off from the earlier contest. It seems some coincidence that two horses would both underachieve to the tune of 20 lbs in the same race.

Clive Cox says he is pleased with how Positive has worked since Goodwood, stating that he is firmly on course for the Solario. He feels the colt is still growing and developing and that he has a lot of scope, describing him as an "Exciting Prospect"

Any improvement will make him tough to beat and I'll be topping up for a decent bet by my humble standards.

 

Just 7 runners declared as neither of Hannon's stand their ground and my thinking that Encipher would not go up against Al Suhail seems to have been correct, as the Gosden runner does not stand his ground.

It is generally 6/4 Positive and 2/1 Al Suhail now, with Visinari 5/1 and 10/1 Bar the three of them.

I have a few quid on Positive at 9/4 and 5/2 now, so fingers crossed he can do the business. On Racing Post Ratings only Visinari is close but Al Suhail could progress and I put him down as one to follow after his debut run. He's skinny enough for what he has achieved so far though and I would probably back the Johnston horse for the forecast spot.

Kameko is declared and generally 10/1 now but with only two places each-way now it doesn't appeal as much as the earlier bigger odds and 3 places .

 

Well that put me in my place

 

Not sure what you mean. My only point was that some horses will buck the logical thinking and frustrate all of us sometimes. I did fine with Balding's Shine So Bright last time and I generally have done well following him. It is more a sad fact that some horse run miles below form with no apparent reason and that puts us all in a quandary as backers.

 

Don't worry Grendel,, it was tongue in cheek. I enjoy your posts and strong convictions.

I would enjoy Kameko winning the Solario though.

 

Timeform ratings


Comments on the 2 favs

 

Another runner out of the race. Down to a small field which looks hard to oppose the front two.

 

I had a look through Kameko's race to see how it was panning out and it's not been great to be honest. The runner up won a Ffos Las maiden at odds-on but the 3rd and 4th were both thumped heavily next time out, getting beaten way further than on their first runs.

Balding must rate the horse because he also holds a Royal Lodge entry but it's a big step up for Kameko unless the favourite fails to fire.

Al Suhail's stablemate and sparring partner Imperial Empire runs in the Nursery which follows the Solario. You would expect that an Al Suhail win would see the money flood in for Imperial Empire as the "Good Thing" on collateral form. Imperial Empire looked nothing special in two runs prior to being runner up to Al Suhail at Yarmouth and my own feeling is that he might not be particularly well handicapped on 75. It's a pity that we could not have seen Imperial Empire run first to put a better perspective on Al Suhail's form but my feeling is that the expensive son of Dubawi and Shirocco Star is very skinny bearing in mind that he was beaten in a maiden and then won a penalty kick race at 1/6. Given that Positive won his maiden by 5 lengths and then only went down to the top rated juvenile of the season in a Group 2 race next time, beating a horse who went on to win a Group 3 at the Curragh next time into third is an entirely stronger claim as the horse to beat today. Given that Positive had 5 lengths to spare over Lope Y Fernandez, who earned a 108 rating yesterday, and Al Suhail beat a horse who lines up off 75 in a Handicap today, I am surprised that 4 tipsters prefer the Godolphin horse today.

 

Well done Grendel, honourable mention Busty

 

Kameko ran very green and was beaten a head. I feel redeemed somehow.

 

Well done, brilliant work to get big prices on an odds on shot! Thought he was going to lose it at the end.

 

Job done, quite surprised that Godolphin set the race up for Positive, was worried that it would play into the hands of Al Suhail when Visinari was a non runner.

 

124- 97p = sh
I never thought a p meant so much