With an extraordinary weekend's racing ahead of us it is difficult to know where to start. ITV4 is showing TEN races on both Saturday and Sunday in an extraordinary show of support for the sport - well done to them and I hope they are rewarded with excellent viewing figures (as an aside - if anyone knows how viewing figures are generated, I'd be fascinated to know). Saturday's programme is a magnificent quadruple-header with 5 races from Sandown, two from Musselburgh, 1 from Wetherby and two from Leopardstown. The highlight of Sandown's card is the Grade 1 Scilly Isles novices chase over 2m 4f and here we see two of the most impressive performers from the somewhat extended festive season clash - Shan Blue (who took the Kauto Star Novices Chase in good style on Boxing Day) and Messire Des Obeaux (who absolutely hacked up in the rearranged Dipper). For good measure we also have Hitman (chased home Allmankind in the Henry VIII when last seen and looks sure to benefit from the step up in trip), Allart (looked top draw at Ascot on chase debut and on a recovery mission after falling at Haydock) and Coral Cup winner Dame De Compagnie. Phew! If they all turn up it will be some spectacle and Messire Des Obeaux gets my tentative nod at this stage. Sandown also hosts the rearranged Cotswold Chase with a small but very select field including Santini (Sandown form 1 - won an Intermediate Chase), Bristol De Mai (Sandown form 321 - won the Scilly Isles in 2016!!!!), Native River (never run at Sandown) and Saint Calvados (Sandown form 3 - well beaten in a Tingle Creek). Tricky one this but with the premium on slick jumping at Sandown I will just go for Native River in what should be a great spectacle. On to the Contenders Hurdle where I can't see past Song For Someone, who can hopefully take this en route to a tilt at the Champion Hurdle - in an open year he would have a big chance on testing ground. The Grade 2 Towton Novices Chase sees some of those entered in the Scilly Isles also entered but the bookies have made Colin Tizzard's The Big Breakaway favourite - he got closest to Shan Blue at Kempton and ought to take plenty of beating. I looked back at previous winners here and it sadly emphasises how Northern racing is the poor relation in the jumps game with good handicappers like Weird Al, Ballyoptic and Blaklion amongst previous winners but nothing you would call a superstar. The two races from Musselburgh are the Edinburgh National and the Scottish County Hurdle and, looking at the entries, the most obvious question was whether Gordon Elliot will be troubling the ferry company. If not then these 2 races will, unfortunately, probably fade into the background with such sumptuous contests being run elsewhere. But we shouldn't forget that this is grassroots racing and many honest, hard-working people earn their living here. Well done ITV for showing them too . On to Dublin where we have 4 grade 1s on Saturday but I can't believe ITV aren't showing the Irish Arkle at 2.10. I'm really looking forward to seeing Unexcepted run here and think he rates a big danger to not only stablemate Energumene here but also to Shishkin at Cheltenham. I think he could be an absolute monster and will be glued to RTE2 watching this. The two races ITV do show are the Dublin Chase (Chacun Pour Soi will hack up) and the Irish Champion Hurdle (Honeysuckle will just hold off Sharjah with the 7lbs crucial) so at least favourite backers will get something back after Energumene's defeat . On to Sunday and here Leopardstown highlights with 4 of the six televised races Grade 1 with 4 races from Musselburgh to compliment the action. The Spring Juvenile Hurdle is a real Mullins vs. Elliot battle with French Aseel and Youmdour looking the main Closutton challengers whereas the Cullentra House honour is defended by Quilixios. They can't all win though so and I would expect the vanquished to be potentially re-routed to the Fred Winter. I think we might have a mini-shock here as I thought Youmdour was going really well when falling last time out and he can upset the more fancied ones in the market. The Chanelle Pharma Novice Hurdle goes to Appreciate It - end of story - and Monkfish can make it a memorable treble for Mullins in the Floglas. It can get even better for Mullins in the Gold Cup but with Melon looking to have more scope than the admirable but exposed Kemboy. Hopefully Minella Indo can get round to give us an idea of where he stands in the pecking order. Musselburgh has another cracking card with all sorts of Cheltenham trials and hopefully the big southern yards will support them again. All in all it looks a superb weekend of racing action and once again hats off to ITV for getting so many races on free TV. Superb stuff.
The Contenders Hurdle is off with Sandown‘s hurdle track unraceable. The Esher venue will host an all-chase card. Wetherby could go the other way and stage an all-hurdle card, depending on the outcome of an inspection at 8am on Friday. Final declarations are in for Leopardstown‘s Saturday card with no surprise omissions. Mark Walsh, as expected, rides Unexcepted. Bit of a tongue-twister. Currently 9/2 with Skybet.
I always have a look on Monday afternoon/evening for the Saturdays racing and whether the markets have an antepost bet that stands out, but when i looked this week I was absolutely stumped by it all. First we didn't know whether the racing would be on, what the cards would look like (all chases at Sandown) and I will be quite honest, even at 48 hour declarations I am confused as to whether Wetherby will run any chases or not. The Scilly Isles has taken shape now, but that hasn't made it any easier with Messire Des Obeaux taking on Hitman and Shan Blue amongst others. The former ran a brilliant race last time out and a repeat of that will make him of major interest, but he has to beat younger and potentially more progressive opposition here. Shan Blue is bound to be popular whilst Hitman has the "could be anything" label despite being beaten by Allmankind last time out. Dame De Compagne brings in Henderson and JP, and she impressed me on chase debut. Throw in Paint The Dream who jumped a handicap field silly last time and its a race to look forward to. The Cotswold Chase being held in Esher, like running the Great North Run in Milton Keynes, and it is quite interesting. The interest is whether old legs and experience can topple younger Gold Cup hopefuls. This could be perfect for Bristol, it probably suits him more than Cheltenham and the railway fences might be crucial in him getting Santini out of his ground. A quality race hopefully. The Cleeve in Wetherby, like running a race called Snowdon in Macclesfield, looks a disappointing race with the lack of the big guns. It looks a shambles of a race, but it might give an opportunity for other horses to win a graded race. However lets be frank, its the racing over in Ireland that draws the eye, there is so much quality in the fields and I am really looking forward to seeing some good festival hopes meeting in competitive racing. I can't wait!
Unexcepted 16/1 for the Arkle - might have to send my old man to Ladbrokes for a slice of that - I’m convinced he wins Saturday and can serve it up to Shishkin.
Oddy, good write up, as usual. Youmdor- yes, he was going well last time when he fell, but Patrick Mullins thinks French Aseel is special. Let’s see. Appreciate it- I love the way he lengthened away last time and wouldn’t oppose him until beaten. Chacun Pour Soi- “Hack up?” Brave statement, Oddy. I don’t think any horse hacks up against top class, consistent Min. The heavier the ground the better for him, and CPS will need to have all his force behind him to arrest him (Excuse the double pun). Great viewing this weekend, eh? PS. I’m debating whether Honeysuckle is worth a bet in the Champion Hurdle - 14/1 ante-post but only 6/1 NRNB Paddy Power. What do you think?
Honeysuckle 14/1 or 6/1 nrnb This is an interesting one, I guess it depends on the way you bet and what you expect from the weekend. If you fancy her to demolish her field then both prices look very good. If she wins in grand style she will be single figures and probably 3s or silly with NRNB. If you think she will have a tough race at the weekend but still win then it’s an interesting debate. It brings in more of a debate about whether she will go to the CH or the mares, and then you have to ponder whether the NRNB is better because of the safety net. Personally I would hope that bookmakers take a stand on the CH and the on the day market is strong and competitive. If so, I think you would probably get 5/1 at worst for her if she won by a short distance this weekend and met Epatante at the festival. As such is the nrnb generous? I think it’s about right to be honest.
No French Aseel in The Spring Juvenile Hurdle, so it looks like a duel between Quilixios and Youmdor.
Hi Tam, hope you are well? I think the Champion Hurdle market is very heavily skewed towards Epatante and this does offer some interesting possibilities in the NRNB market. The one that interests me is Song For Someone 16/1 ew NRNB - I believe he will only run if it comes up very testing and that he would then have a very decent chance. I think Honeysuckle’s rating of 159 is about right - she is unbeaten in 9 but you’d be hard-pressed to find a really good Grade 1 she has won. I’m happy to leave her alone at the available odds.
The thing I like about Honeysuckle is that she is not a hold-up mare and can be put anywhere in the race- and could ‘go for home’ early in a Champion Hurdle. Epatante won well last year but the race was ‘mediocre quality.’ Honeysuckle does look a cast iron each way bet- with a reasonable chance of success in what is another forgettable field.
If you are referring to odddy then I think I have to take issue. We all get the odd one hopelessly wrong, you have done it yourself. Our lad ODDDY though gave us Thistlecrack when it was still sucking on its mothers teat and I think in Duffle Coat he has highlighted early yet another gem. There are some shocking judges/tipsters on here but you cannot include this guy. You also have to applaud how he is desperately trying to breathe some life back into this forum. PS; I would be happy to receive your flat horses to follow for the coming season on a PM if you could oblige.
I don’t know why people get personal on a Forum like this. To challenge people’s views is fine but, even then, there should be a respect and a light-hearted element at the end of it. It’s been obvious for a long time that the site’s moderators are essentially decent, affable people, who are quick to respond, often praise but always reciprocate and show consideration. Asympto, you’re out of order. Tipping horses should never be taken seriously and, I’ve felt for a long time, that more amusing and original articles would serve everyone better. Surely there’s enough pain knocking about at the moment without sticking the knife in needlessly.
1.05 Gentlemansgame 11/1 - Mouse wouldn't be throwing him into the deep end if he didnt think he was up to it 2.10 Darver Star 12/1 - Still to show his class over fences IMO. 2.45 - Aramax 9/1 - Hard to believe hes still only a 5 year old. Seem to have turned a corner last race and plenty of improvement still in him 3.15 - Saint Roi 15/2 - Tomorrow is make or break for him if hes to be considered a champion hurdle contender. Willing to take a chance at the prices 3.50 - Gabynako 16/1 - Has some smart form this season in group races. Looks a very good mark hes on and cromwells record with handicap debutants is excellent. 4.25 - Ramillies 5/1 - Willie said after his last race hes a whale of horse and was surprised he won so well. Stripped fitter and with hopefully a few stone off lol he will go very close. Been talked up all week in Ireland.
Fingers crossed that Sandown and Wetherby pass their morning inspections, which ensures we can all look forward to a fantastic day of racing, before we even get in to Sunday..... Personally, I like nothing more than to start off my weekend with a lovely Cup Of Coffee...
