Evening all. As you know I'm not much of a regular these days but I do like to come on and have a look at any Group1 races and classics, and for me the St Leger is one of my favourites. Not because of the quality of fields we get, but because it is ran over a niche distance of 1m 6f that catches out the top mile and a half horses and has a bit too much speed for the 2 milers. With that in mind, it makes for an interesting betting market. Kingston Hill goes in as favourite but its been a good while since he ran, he has missed many of his engagements and it will be difficult without a prep run. He shaped in the Derby like stamina was his forte but I don't think there is much in his breeding that screams stamina. He is a big colt who sticks to his task well, but the Derby is looking less and less a good contest now and to be honest he just stuck on solidly after Australia made a blitzing move early. Roger Varian has already talked about restraining him to enable him to get the trip but for me they either stay or they don't- you have to let the horse run normally. I think restraining this fellow and keeping the tempo low will not suit his galloping style at all, and I just see him running out of gas in the last two furlongs anyway. ROMSDAL is another from the Derby, he ran on well that day but frankly he is a tricky one to judge. His Derby trial and Derby runs were full of promise but with the form taking knocks. He then ran a stinker at Ascot in the King George and with no real explanation. I don't know if he was just flattered staying on past beaten horses, or whether he is smart. He has been ignored by Buick when being passed over for Western Hymn and Eagle Top, and I suspect he is in the Leger by default. He is said to have 'spun his wheels' on the looser ground at Ascot and he could well bounce back. However I am not convinced that the Leger tempo will suit him, barring a mad gallop like we got when MASKED MARVEL won a couple of years back. Snow Sky is a genuine contender and ran a pleasing race at York, travelling nicely and keeping on well, done for a bit of speed if anything. The temp and distance of a St Leger should suit this horse and I'd expect a rock solid bid for the frame from him. He has ran well on flat tracks of York and Newbury and therefore Doncaster won't be anything new for him. Windshear has had a really solid season for the Hannons. They are not synonymous with middle distance successes but this horse looks a real game one and all performances suggest there is some stamina. By Hurricane Run and out of a Hernando mare, stamina should be its forte and there have been some very unlucky runs in good company over middle distances, including when touched off by Snow Sky. He ought to run another solid race but looks like he can be took on for win purposes and he has had a very, very busy season. The one I like the most is FOREVER NOW- John Gosdens second in the market. He has been brought along steadily this season after making his debut last winter, and has just 5 runs to his name. He stepped forward markedly on 2nd start when reappearing to just be touched off by classy filly WONDERSTRUCK who went on to run well in the Ribblesdale, and had already had the benefit od a run just prior to that. Forever Now then went to Doncaster for his maiden win and did so with the minimum of fuss, quickening clear to win by 6L. He then got done by Hartnell in the Bahrain trophy- a small field, tactical affair playing right to the Johnson horse strengths- before he made all at Goodwood in the March stakes, just holding off AlexMyBoy. The ground there was softer than described that day and he really did keep on well on what I think is unfavoured ground. Yes he is all about stamina- a son of Galileo out of a Darshaan mare- but his prominent running style is suited to a quicker surface where he can turn on the taps and go for home. William Buick has ridden him in all his races and hasn't ridden Romsdal the last twice. I think Buick will ride this fellow and that he will shorten a couple of points in the market during the week (trading at 16.0 on Betfair right now). There is potentially a bit more to come and if he does show any improvement, there would have to be a very decent stayer to beat him. There doesn't look to be one of the class of Leading Light this year, and with one or two doubts around breeding for the favourite, and issues with form for the others, this looks like a horse that would suit a St Leger. Lady Bamford missed this last year with Feels Like Dancing- another son of Galileo out of a Darshaan mare- and perhaps she can make amends. What are everyone elses thoughts on the race?
I don't know what the going is forecasted to be but I'm inclined towards Snow Sky at the moment. I think you are being a bit harsh re Kingston Hill, Toppy - I agree they are being very picky in where and when he runs, but he is still the class act in this field. I have read that Australia apart, this year's Derby was sub-standard - personally, I'd add Kingston Hill to the exclusion. He was running on and I don't think he was flattered by his proximity to Australia. That said - I will look to oppose him, on grounds of his interrupted preparation - this is still a Classic, and it will take a horse right at the top of his game to win it. Good points re Forever Now, and 16-1 ew looks tasty, but I can't forget the way he was brushed aside by Hartnell in the Bahrain over 13f. To be honest, I'd be all over Hartnell if he hadn't run so badly in the Great Voltigeur - a race that is often a pointer to the Leger - but I am bemused as to why Postponed wasn't supplemented, as he won that race with real authority that day. I'll wait until Saturday morning to decide finally!
Looking at the ante post market, there may be an opportunity for shrewd punters to get generous odds about their selection now before favourite Kingston Hill defects. At the moment I think it is more likely that I will see him in the Prix Niel on Sunday. The biggest single factor in the defeat of horses is running them on the wrong ground. The current going at Doncaster is reported as good to soft; and there is no rain forecast this week. Surely Arc will not turn on the Town Moor taps for one horse to the detriment of many of the others. We know that the taps will be on at Longchamp because they always are, although there is no rain forecast for Paris either. Great Voltigeur runner-up Snow Sky has the disadvantage of his trainer’s dreadful record in the final Classic. It took him most of his career to win it for the first time but this lightly-raced contender goes to the start with as good a chance as several previous Stoute charges. It does not surprise me that Postponed has not been added to the race as his pedigree does not exactly shout staying stamina. With a couple of lengths to find with the favourite (if he shows up) on Derby form, Romsdal has to put his disappointing showing at Ascot behind him but does have the advantage of coming from the all-conquering Gosden yard, which is also represented by the improving March Stakes victor Forever Now. It is not inconceivable that the Mark Johnston runners could be allowed to dictate this unless one of the Ballydoyle runners takes them on, so I would not write off Bahrain Trophy winner Hartnell just because he was a no-show in the Great Voltigeur. I struggle to find a reason why Granddukeoftuscany or Kingfisher are going to win; however, this is an open year. I do not see Kingston Hill running, but if he does he will be beaten, probably by whichever of Snow Sky and Forever Now I do not put my shilling on.
If Kingston Hill stays the Leger distance I'd be very, very surprised. So it may be better he crosses the channel.
This weekend I will be looking at doing the Leading Light (11/10) & Australia (2/7) double at just under 7/4
The question I always ponder when chucking odds on horses in multiples is this: If I had £110 to bet on a horse that is 2/7 would I back it? In other words if I back Leading Light with £100 and it wins at 11/10, I have £110 free bet on Australia. Do I put it all on at 2/7 or is there better value elsewhere or do I put the £110 in the kitty? I always regard the odds on shot in isolation. If I would back it, then getting free money (assuming the other leg(s) win) to back it is a bonus.
Very good point that Ron, the way I look at it is I think Australia is a certainty and therefore getting 7/4 about Leading Light is a good bet. Would I back them both in singles, no but then I wouldn't do a Saturday football bet in singles either.
I fancy WINDSHEAR, the way he was staying on last time suggests trip will suit and with more luck in running, he must go close
Windshear looks the one to be on. High class handicap form all season, ran off his feet in the London Gold Cup stayed on for 2nd giving a couple of pounds to Cannock Chase. Gave Hartnall too much rope in the Bahrain, got done for a bit of speed in the Gordon then stayed on best as you would probably expect of a horse who might be suited to a Leger. If the fav doesnt stay then Windshear's form is right there with the best of the rest and on breeding, being by Hurricane Run out of a Hernando mare, plus on visual impression of his races, he must have a good chance of staying as well as anything.
The old saying says, odds on, look on. The world's top rated sprinter Lankan Rupee was rolled last Saturday ay 1/5. Many, many moons ago a Queenslander by the name of Spear Chief went to the big smoke in Sydney to take on the champion Ajax who was looking to make it 19 wins in a row. In a three horse race, Ajax went to the start as a 1/40 chance, Spear Chief went off at 33/1. The favourite was taken on in running which left him a sitting duck. Spear Chief nailed Ajax on the line.
They have taken Kingston Hill out of the Prix Niel at the first forfeit stage, so it is Town Moor or nothing for Roger Varian. As I have seen him walk Sandown and York this year and withdraw the horse from both the Eclipse and the Great Voltigeur, I think he is a non-runner on Saturday. The bookies will oppose him on Saturday but there will still be a huge Rule 4 unless punters are on the others ante post.
Apologies, I was wrong in my previous post here when I said Kingston Hill did not run in the Eclipse. He did, despite the ground. Roger Varian walked the course more than an hour before the race, then it rained for a short time (which will have made little difference to the going) and then they ran him. He was a never in it, staying on up the hill fourth. He tried to persuade the Doncaster clerk to water the track by going to the media and saying that they would withdraw the horse. So he will end up withdrawing the horse because the course said, quite correctly, that they would not water the course just for one horse because that would be to the detriment of all the other runners on the card that preferred fast ground. Looking on OddsChecker now, you can already have 7/2 and 100/30 because the layers are opposing him.
It's Snow Sky for me. One of the best distaff lines in the stud book going back to Chelandry. A first English Classic for Doyle
