Ten Sovereigns put his field to the sword in the July Cup today as the 3YO horses held sway. All credit to the O'Brien horse for bouncing back into form but you have to wonder about some of the efforts today from the older brigade. The Racing Post awarded a figure of 125 to Ten Sovereigns, which I read was the highest awarded for 16 years but how reliable is it? In particular I have to wonder about the horses who filled the last places in today's race. Dream Of Dreams ran a corker behind Blue Point at Royal Ascot, earning a personal best of 122 but today he has run to just 106. That has to go down as a huge disappointment Limato ran to a rating of 119 when winning last time and was not without support today but he trailed in last, running to just 95 today, 24 lbs short of his last effort. Cape Byron won the Wokingham carrying 9st 9lbs and earned a RPR of 118 in doing so. A huge field handicap and surely the form was rock solid with the 2nd, 3rd and 4th all winning since. Quite fancied at 6/1 today, surely the Varian horse must run his race you would think but not a bit of it, as he came home second last, running 15 lbs below his Royal Ascot winning form. The older horses didn't half make it easy for Ten Sovereigns today, the three mentioned in particular all running behind not one, but two 66/1 shots on the day. Very poor showing from the older sprinters there and not one mention of why they ran so poorly.
haven’t seen any racing today , but it’s not uncommon for horses to underperform, like us , they have off days / periods , because of higher profile races it’s more pronounced, but it happens in virtually every race , some run well , some don’t and whether expected or not it seems immaterial . i agree , you want to know what reasons are given ? stable form ? certainly stoute has had a dip and varian , whilst mark johnston runners at the top table have been superb the last couple weeks , haggas seems to be having a long good run , but such is racing !!
Crikey you ain’t half bitter about deserting your horse today huh. Ten Sovereigns was the 4th 3yo to win the race in the last 5 years which is an interesting fact as the Commonwealth Cup is now five years old! Did you listen to Moore and O’Brien yesterday? It was one of their most interesting post race interviews which gave a real insight into the intricacies of training these young baby horses. AOB pretty much admitted to getting things wrong with the horse and he should never have trained him with a mile in mind. It has taken him time to getting him back to sprinting mode. I think he would have similar comments to make regarding Fairyland. The Guineas was as usual all too important for them. They knew yesterday that they had the horse back spot on right for the job which is why he halved in price from 10’s to 5’s. How a handicapper went off at only a point bigger is quite amazing. Ten Sovereigns will only improve on this and I hope that Fairyland will bag herself the decent sprint race that she deserves too.
I was all over Fairyland yesterday I thought it looked like a perfect example of an O'Brien fiddle. Get Moore on 'first choice' and let it take all the money then their real fancy wins. Unfortunately wasn't to be.
In the Bustino Prediction comp I had Ten Sovereigns down to win the Kings Stand and thought he would be taking the sprinters apart this year. Disappointed he let me down at Ascot but now I understand why he was beaten, I will continue to original thinking. Not the first time AOB has admitted to making mistakes with his top horses. Wish I had heard that explanation before the race
Most of these group 1 sprints you can run 10 times and get 10 different results. Apart from the odd superstar the sprint division has always been a bit of a lottery. Give me a novice hurdle any day of the week.
Maybe the Commonwealth Cup has something to do with it. The 3yos don't now meet the 4yo+s until the July Cup. The 3yos have their own sprinting target, which draws horses from 7f+ races at Royal Ascot, so we know (generally) who the best 3yo sprinters are. The 4yos are not tested as they had been at Ascot when there was no Commonwealth Cup. Could all be reasons, could all contribute. Shame Blue Point was retired before this race.
They must be kicking themselves for retiring Blue Point. I know they said at the time they wanted to go out on a high and he owed them nothing after winning two races in four days at the Royal meeting, but he could have made Ten Sovereigns prove that he was a top drawer sprinter (still unproven with this win because the form is too easy to crab). The Commonwealth Cup is a good thing for the reasons that you state – it is worth a lot of money so instead of gambling on your horse with a Guineas campaign and then dropping to sprinting (what always used to happen in the past) they find a prep race or just go straight to Ascot. It is generally the case – has been before the Commonwealth Cup and will be in the future – that a lot of the older horses are ones that have worked their way up through the handicap system and been forced into pattern races. Only a few of them make the grade and that is generally in years when there are no standout three year olds. Ten Sovereigns will never be a backable price again because of where he lives but he now has the rest of the season to cement his status as top sprinter or blow it and confirm that all of this year’s three year olds are mediocre.
The top 4 in the July Cup have all been running at a mile, this is why it was the right decision to run Ten Sovereigns and Calyx in the Guineas, its very easy to go sprinting if you dont stay as countless top sprinters have shown over the years, Calyx didnt even make the commonwealth adding further weight to the case for him running. Obrien can talk about his training but you cant train a horse to run faster. Advertise won the Commonwealth after being trained for the Guineas so there was no excuses for Ten Sovereigns at Ascot, its likely the return to Newmarket and faster ground is why we saw a better horse, he did win his 2yo G1 at Newmarket on fast ground.
But would it have been a 3YO clean sweep if Hey Jonesy had lined up?!? And I’m not being flippant in saying that. Less than 3 months ago he was beaten just 1.25 lengths, off levels, by an animal now rated 119 and I still think he’s got the class and ability to go very close in one of these top class races or in a major handicap of his lovely, and I do mean lovely, current perch of 105. Amy’s Dad actually ran 2 in the ‘July Cup’ and I’d guess the reason Hey Jonesy didn’t join them was because how exploitable that mark looks – he’s now a gelding (Hey Jonesy not Amy’s Dad) so Group 1 or handicap will now make not a jot of difference on his stallion CV! Is in a couple of races on Friday (Haydock and Hamilton) but eye-catchingly also 2 major and lucrative handicaps over a 7 day period from 27 July – Ascot’s ‘International Handicap’ and then ‘The Stewards Cup’.
