Sunday 19th January Daily Thread

Perhaps the unthinkable could happen and England might win a cricket game in Australia when you wake up tomorrow?

12:50 Fairyhouse one of my 5 to follow LE VENT D'ANTAN reappears. Won beautifully on bumper debut before finding Cheltenham a touch too much, but crucially unlike Liz Doyles other two gems that she unearthed (Al Ferof & Cheltenian), this one was only 4 at the festival and with another year on his back he is going to fill out into a beautiful animal.

There is around 30.0 available on the exchanges for the Supreme Novice hurdle and if he were to win this and come out of the race well, the Supreme looks his likely target.

Hoping to see a nice reappearance- looks as if he will be around 7/4 mark.

 

Poste Restante--8/1 -2 30 K--a weak race -so be wary, but this unexposed Simmcock horse may well improve for last weeks lingfield run and if so can claim this race. Ran green, but was starting to understand towards the end of the race--today could see a different showing-so at the price with stable in hot order its a bet for me.

 

Did ok yesterday and nothing of any real interest today so i'm throwing darts and doing an ew lucky 31 on some long shots:

12:50 Fairyhouse - Lord Jim 33/1
1:30 Kempton - Celestial Dawn 12/1
3:30 Kempton - Lastkingofscotland 7/1
4:30 Kempton - Top Diktat 12/1
5:00 Kempton - Vhujon 14/1

 

I like that one too rudey. Up in trip again which will help I think. Didn't Simcock land a little touch last week too!

Noel Fehily is having his best season ever and closing in on his first century. I can see him getting more and more opportunities for the chubby one the way he has performed recently. Interesting that today he goes to Towcester for one ride on a 20-1 shot! Ties are close between his parent yard and the Greatrex clan so maybe I shouldn't read too much into it but I am having a small each way regardless. SILENT KNIGHT 20-1 Towcester 1:10.

 

Stick, personally I think Noel Fehily is an excellent jockey. Largely uncomplicated, and tends to play to the strengths of a horse- rides on Rock On Ruby (Champ Hurdle) and Silviniaco Conti (King George) being the most obvious and high profile. Seems to have a good feel for what is in the tank and a good understanding of pace.

 

I also like Noel Fehily, but his problem is that he is coming into the limelight after the mercurial Ruby Walsh, and he doesn't have the same style and panache as Ruby. He also has the spectre of younger jockeys waiting in the wings, with Sam Twiston-Davies looking to be the jockey who everyone wants to use. With a clear run without injuries Noel will show that he is worthy of the job, but one injury or barren spell could ruin his career with Nicholls (ala Jacobs/Thomas).

I don't think he will get more opportunities than he is already getting with Nicholls though, if anything I see it going the other way.

 

Hi all

Here are todays selections


Fairyhouse
120- Gitane Du Berlais

Kempton
230- Postane Resante
330- Ice Blast
400- Hoof IT

 

Well, it doesn't help when your horse gets clattered 2 out, does it.

 

Morning all
little ew on welsh inlet
win on mansonian l, as

 

I thought it was more La Vent jumping into the Mullins horse TC (on first look). He ran well against some race fit and listed class horses. Will improve for the outing. You've got a chance he'll prove worthy of a 5 to follow spot.

 

That was pathetic from silent knight, hope Milord is ok, fell at the last

 

1.50 Fairyhouse Windsor Queen

 

2.00 Red Art - dropping down the handicap and should get the race run to suit from his low draw. 16/1 looks a very fair EW price. Return to October form and he is a good bit better than odds suggest.

 

I like the look of a few today.

3.20 Fairyhouse Lisrose 7/1 represents the first runner under Rules for trainer Alice Curran and making her handicap debut over fences off a mark of 102 I think she has a cracking chance. Formerly with Henry De Bromhead, this 9 year old mare showed some decent form in Novice Chases and comes here on the back of scoring for Curran in a pretty decent looking open P2P at Dromahane in December on what was her first start for her trainer and hopefully she can translate that form under Rules. Andrew McNamara takes the ride and at 7/1 I think she looks a great price.

3.30 Kempton Avonmore Star 7/1 represents my favourite trainer in Mike Murphy and after finding himself woefully out of form of late Avonmore Star put in a much better effort on his last start of this career low mark when 3rd behind a couple of 3 year olds over 6f at Lingfield in a race that has worked out well. With eye-shields helping him to have settled, if building on that last effort I think he has a brilliant chance of landing this today off 62 given that he was beaten a couple of necks off a 10lb higher mark 11 months ago.

3.50 Fairyhouse On Impulse 9/1 is a very interesting debutant for the excellent Harry Kelly and with this 5 year old sure to be race fit given the connections he hails from I think he's definitely worth backing. This 5 year old son of Flemensfirth is the first foal of Sugar Island who is an unraced half sister to the brilliant Sizing Europe and there is certainly a lot to like about his pedigree. The excellent Pa King's 7lb claim is invaluable in a contest like this and with Harry Kelly no stranger to Bumper winners I think 9/1 looks a very big price at present.

 

I definitely like avonmore star roto took on ew should place on his mark with a goodchance at glory

 

Daring dragon is massive at 249/1betdaq first run at 6f I have seen this go at 7 the drop back could be good

 

again stayed on well at the end !! --Blinkers nto ?

 

Chelsea one up. Should crush us today.


Tonight's NFL bet is the over 40 points at 10/11 in the 49ers/Seahawks game.

 

That really did look like a school today, one for the handicapper and all that. I wonder if any of us would have noticed had we not been watching the horse!?!?
In the notebook rudy.......money lent